I stumbled upon an April 2013 article from The Economist where they “moneyball the EPL” that seemed really interesting and worth sharing with the class. Companies such as Opta and Prozone record each tackle, goal, pass, assist, and any quantifiable “event” performed by each player in the EPL. They use “topological data analysis” in order to visualize and compare players’ attributes. Furthermore, players with similar playing styles and attributes are classified in an overlapping region called a “node”. They also use the example of Gareth Bale (back before his record-breaking transfer) as a star for Tottenham and the outstanding player in the EPL. When Spurs fans are asked why he’s so good, they’ll cite his ability to score goals from beyond twenty-five yards. However, the program the authors use claims that Bale’s “number of successful interceptions and successful passes that he makes in his own third of the field”. However, by pairing him with up similar players, they say that Danny Welbeck of Manchester United and Gaston Ramirez of Southampton can nearly match Bale’s contributions for less than a quarter of the price. Despite the success of “moneyball” as implemented by Oakland Athletics manager Billy Beane (historic 20-game win streak and winning the AL West), it’s not so simple in soccer. Baseball is quite suitable for statistical analysis, as batting average, on base percentage, home runs and RBIs have become some of the key figures of a player’s merit. However, soccer is so dynamic that quantifying distance run or shots taken may mislead the analyst; a player may have run around aimlessly or taken and missed shots when a teammate was open in front of the net. Regardless, I thought it was pretty cool that software like this exists and is being actively utilized.
Disclaimer: When I say Danny Welbeck and Gaston Ramirez are as valuable as Gareth Bale, I’m citing what the author’s study claims. I do NOT believe those players are as good as Bale nor do I genuinely believe that soccer can be fully analyzed numerically. However, I think the argument is interesting, which is why I reported it.
Using statistics can only get you so far. There is something to be said for players who are able to perform at a high level when the stakes are high and there’s a lot of pressure. Heck, there is an entire profession (sports psychology) that is dedicated to helping athletes perform at a high level in pressure situations.
I think that using stats and metrics such as money ball can get you moving in the right direction, you need to have players who can play well in the clutch.
The question here is ROI, or return on investment, for those less acquainted with economic jargon. I have a very brutal opinion about the overrated, overvalued players that make the rounds every transfer season. Bale, Hulk, Modric, even C. Ronaldo and Kaka, and hundreds of other players, have been transferred way above their reasonable rate of return in “sporting results”. I would argue that when Real Madrid bought CR7, Kaka and Bale, they were not looking for strictly sporting returns – and in their case, those players may make sense, since they bring in ridiculous amounts of shirt sales, preseason tournament fees, and image rights royalties. But to think that Hulk was worth 60M or Ozil 50M just on the returns on the field is ludicrous. When clubs begin to use more scientific methods to evaluate and estimate sporting returns, the playing field to the big clubs (Bayern, ManU, CHelsea, or Real, just to name a few) will shrink significantly. FC Porto, Lyon, Valencia, Bilbao and Benfica have been good examples of clubs with budgets, markets and assets well below the major clubs, but achieving sporting competitiveness in recent years in the international European leagues. Do not doubt for a moment that they are using some version of “moneyball” techniques to build and maintain their teams.
I see this program as beneficial in regards to players who are integral to teams, yet dont show up on the stat sheet very often. The center back who wins balls in the air, or the defensive mid who connects passes could be seen as highly valuable through some of the data techniques used by this program. Any fanatic of soccer knows that there is always a player on every team who is underrated, yet critical to the teams performance. They may not score goals, but without them the team would fall apart. I think that a way to quantify their performances could be through other measurable plays such as number of passes connected, or percentage won of 50/50 balls. These are crucial plays to the sport, yet tend to go unnoticed in the box score. I like the idea of this program as a way to measure more defensive players skill. It could be a very good way to recruit talented players for less money.
I thought this post was very interesting because I’ve actually played a game called “Football Manager” from SEGA. In fact, I’ve played the game from 2009. The game places you as a manager of any football club that you want to be. I’ve played a variety of teams from Real Madrid to Crystal Palace(a team in the English Championship). When I was the manager of Real Madrid, I had the chance to bring in scouters, coaches, team doctors, and players from around the world. I ended up firing my head coach Aitor Karanka and brought in AC Milan’s Mauro Tassoti. Since the game quantified everything(from shooting technique, flair, to even how suitable a coach was for training) I could choose the best of the best. With supreme financial powers, I was able to buy in players such as Thiago Silva, Javi Martinez, and Falcao to strengthen the squad. In the first year as the manager of Real Madrid, I won the league title, the Spanish Cup, and the Champions League, a feat that even Jose Mourinho couldn’t accomplish. Over the years, I continued buying in the best players that were available and continued the treble streak for quite a few years.
However, when I played as the manager of lowly ranked teams(I played Bolton after I got tired of winning too much), I didn’t have enough money and recognition around the world to bring in the players that I brought in as Real’s manager(Imagine Lionel Messi playing for Bolton). What I had to do was buy the players that were cost efficient. Some players that I ended up signing were Seung-yong Ki(since he was Korean), Kurt Zouma, Marc-andre ter stegen, Gylfi Sigurosson, Erik Lamela, and Will Hughes for a period of several years. These players, even though they were not a Thiago Silva or a Javi Martinez, ended up doing a good job and Bolton blasted through the ceiling of the Premiereship and won the Champions League in 4 years.
I also saw the movie Moneyball and was fascinated by the groundbreaking idea of Billy Beane. But I agree with your idea in that football is such a dynamic sports that it cannot be quantified statistically. However I think the game makes some sense in that some of the players that were underdeveloped in Football Manager 2009 such as Mesut Ozil, Gareth Bale, Mario Gotze, and others ended up becoming a force on the pitch.