Written by: Megan Gutter, April 30 2016
Gameplay:
The first stage of the Copa America is the group competition. The 16 teams are split into four different groups of four based on a series of rules and each team plays every other team in their group once. For each match, a team accumulates 3 points if they win, 1 point if they draw, or 0 points if they lose. When all the matches are completed, the two teams from each group with the highest score advance to the single-elimination round in which a team is eliminated after losing. In the elimination stage, there is no such thing as a draw. If a match ends with an equal score, there will be two 15 minute periods of extra time. If that also ends in an equal score, the winner will be decided by penalty kicks.[3]
Bracket Creation:
To be sorted into four different groups, the 16 teams are first put into four different pots based on specific criteria and then one from each pot is drawn for each group. The first pot contains the host, the team with the highest FIFA ranking, and the two “most decorated nations… from their respective confederations”. The second pot is the highest ranking CONMEBOL teams according to FIFA, the third pot is the rest of the CONCACAF qualified teams, and the fourth pot is the lowest FIFA ranking and rest of the CONMEBOL teams.[5] This is illustrated in Figure 1 below and the breakdown is as follows:
Pot 1: USA, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico
Pot 2: Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay
Pot 3: Costa Rica, Jamaica, Haiti, Panama
Pot 4: Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela [5]
The first pot contains the predetermined heads of groups and are each manually assigned a group: United States in A, Brazil in B, Mexico in C, and Argentina in D. The rest of the teams are randomly assigned groups by drawing a group letter and position number from a respective pot containing one position in each group (demonstrated by pots 5-8 in Figure 1), therefore teams in the same pot will be in distinct groups. Pot 2 draws from Pot 6, Pot 3 from Pot 7, and Pot 4 from Pot 8. These pots are associated with each other in order to maintain the position number but still be placed randomly into a group, for example Pot 6 contains the position 2s for each group so that the teams in Pot 2 will all be in the second position. The draw occurs backwards from Pot 4 to Pot 2. See Figure 2 below for a visual of this process.[5]
The results from the draw are as follows:
Group Speculation and Matches of Interest:
The formation of the groups naturally comes with a bit of built-in bias. Including the two “most decorated nations” as heads of groups is a rather arbitrary selection criteria and there is no benefit in being the head of a very strong group. Even though Argentina and Chile are at the top of the world rankings and therefore the best teams in the tournament, only Argentina is a head of a group and therefore through the draw they can (and will) prematurely play against each other, even though in theory the group selection is supposed to spread out the most qualified teams so that all the best teams can advance to meet later in the tournament.
Despite having a home soil advantage, it is widely agreed upon that the United States is in the toughest group in the tournament, drawing both Costa Rica and Paraguay. Costa Rica and Paraguay were considered the top teams of Pot 3 and Pot 4, indicated by their ESPN Soccer Power Index and because they both competed in the 2014 World Cup.[2] Costa Rica, the strongest CONCACAF team, is one of the only two nations in their confederation to have a winning record against the United States, with a record of 14-13-6. Paraguay faced the United States last in the 2007 Copa America where they won 3 to 1, but the two teams haven’t competed against each other much with a record of 2-2-2. Although Columbia isn’t considered the top contender of Pot 2, they have the highest FIFA World ranking of the group (rank #4) and their history against the United States doesn’t bode well for the home team. Columbia holds a significant 11-3-4 record and has played against the United States in the Copa America many times in the past. In addition, U.S. vs. Columbia is the first match of the entire tournament so the stakes are high.[1] Being the top seed and on home turf may not be enough of an advantage for the United States to make it out of the group stage! U.S. coach Jurgen Klinsmann remains optimistic saying, “Obviously it’s a difficult group, no doubt about it, but it’s doable.”[4] These matches will certainly be showdowns to watch.
Mexico, on the other hand, had a lot of luck in the group draw. Jamaica may have made it to the Gold Cup final last year, but they haven’t kept up their game as much as the other teams. Additionally, Venezuela is in last place in the CONMEBOL World Cup 2018 qualifiers and shouldn’t pose a huge threat. Uruguay will be the strongest opponent and should be the only true challenge as they were first place in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers and are currently ranked #9 in the FIFA World Rankings.[4] Even if they are not able to beat Uruguay for the top spot in the group, the top two move forward to the single-elimination round. Mexico should have an easier journey than the United States out of the group stage.
Of course, the rivalries between South American countries are unparalleled. One exciting match will be Brazil vs. Ecuador. Of course, Brazil is the group’s leader and always expected to perform very well, but Ecuador poses an interesting threat to the soccer powerhouse. Ecuador is tied with Uruguay on the top of the CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying table. Another match to look out for in the opening games is Argentina vs. Panama. Despite Argentina being the favorite, Panama should not be discounted. Panama just placed third in the CONCACAF Gold Cup and could carry the momentum forward.[6]
However of all the matches in the group stages, Argentina vs. Chile will be the one to watch. Both of them are highly ranked teams in the FIFA World Rankings (Argentina first, Chile third) and it’ll be a rematch of the 2015 Copa America where Chile defeated Argentina for the title.[6] Will revenge happen before the group stage is even over? It is safe to say that the group stage holds fierce competition.
Sources:
[1] Crandall, Jeff. “U.S. MNT Copa America Centenario Opponent Breakdown.” U.S. Soccer. 22 February 2016. Web. 26 April 2016. <http://www.ussoccer.com/stories/2016/02/22/23/47/160222-mnt-copa-america-centenario-opponent-breakdown>.
[2] Kramer, Daniel. “Copa America Centenario 2016 Draw Results: Groups, Brackets, Schedule Revealed.” Bleacher Report.21 February 2016. Web. 24 April 2016. <http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2618588-copa-america-centenario-2016-draw-results-groups-bracket-schedule-revealed>.
[3] Stejskal, Sam. “Copa America.” MLS. 21 February 2016. Web. 24 April 2016. <http://www.mlssoccer.com/meta/competition/copa-america/centenario-101>.
[4] Wahl, Grant. “U.S. draws tough group, Mexico in good shape for 2016 Copa América.” Sports Illustrated. 21 February 2016. Web. 30 April 2016. < http://www.si.com/planet-futbol/2016/02/21/copa-america-centenario-draw-united-states-mexico>.
[5] “Procedures Announced for 2016 Copa America Centenario Official Draw.” U.S. Soccer. 17 February 2016. Web. 24 April 2016. <http://www.ussoccer.com/stories/2016/02/17/14/23/160217-copa-procedures-announced-for-2016-copa-america-centenario-official-draw>.
[6] “Five Matches to Watch.” Copa America Centenario 2016. 27 April 2016. Web. 28 April 2016. <http://www.ca2016.com/article/five-matches-to-watch>.
How to cite this page:
“Bracket Creation and Gameplay,” Written by Megan Gutter (2016). Copa America Centenario 2016 Guide, Soccer Politics Blog, Duke University, http://sites.duke.edu/wcwp/tournament-guides/copa-america-centenario-2016-guide/copa-america-centenario-2016-team-guide/bracket-creation-and-gameplay/ (accessed on (date)).