The Duke Journal of Economics is published each year to showcase outstanding research in economics by Duke undergraduates. This volume contains both honors theses and essays. The articles are examples of research written by Duke Undergraduates and Masters students at various stages of their economics education at Duke. Honors theses which were presented at the 2008 undergraduate research symposium and are to be published in the special edition of the Duke Journal of Economics devoted to that symposium are not included here. Additional pieces will appear after their authors revise them.

The Allen Starling Johnson, Jr, prize for the best honors thesis was earned by Andrey Fradkin for his thesis: “A Comparative Study of the International Content of Implied Volatiling.” The prize for the best presentation at the 6th Annual Economics Undergraduate Economics Symposium was earned by Aleksandr Andreev for his honors thesis: “Assessing Disability Rates in the Russian Federation.” He has been awarded a Fulbright to Russia to continue work on the project.

Ten undergraduates and M.A. students wrote book reviews in the spring of 2008, which have been scheduled for publication in scholarly journals. We are delighted that their critical skills are being appreciated by the profession.

These are:

• Megha Bisarya, Escape From Empire: The Developing World’s Journey Through Heaven and Hell, by Alice Amsden, MIT Press, 2007, Asian Journal of Social Science, forthcoming in early 2009.
• Mark Curtis, What Do We Know About Globalization? by Guillermo de le Dehesa, Blackwell, 2007, Journal of Economic Issues, forthcoming in December 2008.
• Johannes Fritz, Europe’s Troubled Region: Economic Development, Institutional Reform and Social Welfare in the Western Balkans, by William Bartlett, Routledge, 2008, Journal of East European and Black Sea Studies (published by the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy and Routledge in Great Britain), forthcoming in September 2008.
• Ikee Gardner, Capital Rules: The Construction of Global Finance, by Rawi Abdelal, Harvard University Press, 2007. Journal of Economic Issues, forthcoming in September 2008 or March 2009.
• Chamindra Goonewardene, The Future of Microfinance and Poverty Alleviation, by Tazul Islam, Ashgate, 2007, Journal of South Asian Development (published in Australia), forthcoming in August 2008.
• Caitlin McLaughlin, Creating a World Without Poverty: Social Business and the Future of Capitalism, by Muhammad Yunus, Perseus Publishing, 2008, Linked on the author’s web site: http://www.muhammadyunus.org
• Brian Mokoro, After War: The Political Economy of Exporting Democracy, by Chrisopher Coyne, Stanford University Press, 2007, New Perspectives on Political Economy (published in the Czech Republic, Volume 4, Issue 1), http://pcpe.libinst.cz/nppe/
• Nur M. Adhi Purwanto, Colonial Legacies: Economic and Social Development in East and South East Asia, by Anne E. Booth, Hawaii University Press, 2007, ASEAN Economic Bulletin (published in Singapore), forthcoming in August/December 2008.
• Parul Sharma, India – The Emerging Giant, by Arvind Panagariya, Oxford University Press, 2008, South Asia Economic Journal (published by The Institute of Policy Studies, Colombo and Research and Information Systems for Developing Countries, New Delhi), forthcoming in Volume 9, No. 2., July 2008.
• Gracia Sierra, The Elephant and the Dragon: the Rise of India and China and what it Means to All of Us,  by Robyn Meredith, W. W. Norton and Company, July 2007, ASEAN Economic Bulletin (published in Singapore), forthcoming in September or December 2008.

We congratulate the students mentioned above and the authors of the research presented in this issue.

Thanks go to Chris Genwright, who put the journal online.

Charles Becker & Ed Tower, Faculty Advisors to the Journal

Honor’s Theses

Tracking Decisions in North Carolina’s Public High Schools by Michael B. Harris

Predicting Financial Debt Crises: A Case Study of India by Matthew Sperber

How Information from a Strategic Alliance Network Relates to Future Acquisition Performance in the Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Industries by Stephen McGregor Raymond

Analyzing and Applying Existing and New Jump Detection Methods for Intraday Stock Data by W. Warren Davis

The Role of Conflict Diamond Sanctions in Civil War Resolution by Karin Sun

Socioeconomic Factors and the Outcomes of Thailand’s Prevention of Mother-To-Child Transmission program (PMTCT) by Wichsinee Wibulpolprasert

Articles

The impact of cigarette excise taxes on beer consumption by Jeremy Cluchey & Frank DiSilvestro

Greed and the Bloomsbury Group How the Concept of Greed Impacted John Maynard Keynes and His Friends by Adam Finkelstein

Predicting Urban Crime In Diverse Settings by Johannes Fritz

Does the State Business Tax Climate Index Provide Useful Information for Policy Makers to Affect Economic Conditions in their States? by Geoffrey King and Jake Palley

The Economic Implications of Child Labor: A Comprehensive Approach to Labor Policy by Jamie Gordon

The “Balancing Trade Act of 2007” by Brian Grube

Empirical Analysis of Rural Development along Interstate Highways by Andrew Kindman

Evaluating the Elderly Retired in a Tiebout Context by Harry Lee

Racial Disparities in Durham County Public Elementary Education: A Picture That Is More than Black and White by Kristen Manderscheid

Do Mandatory and Recommended Arrest Laws Decrease Female Homicide Rates? by Kari Points and Celeste Richie

U.S. Bilateral Free Trade Agreements with Chile and Singapore by Grant M. Reeves

Residential Water Demand in Durham, NC, at the Onset of the 2007 Drought 
by Wichsinee Wibulpolprasert

The sixth annual Undergraduate Research Symposium was held on April 11-12 in the Social Sciences building. Thirteen papers were presented by students from Duke University, the University of Carolina at Chapel Hill, and Davidson College. This year, we received more submissions than ever and the overall quality of the papers, even the ones not accepted, was quite high.

Financial economics was again a popular topic for student research, particularly among Duke students. Peter Van Tassel presented “Patterns Within the Trading Day: Volatility and Jump Discontinuities in High Frequency Equity Price Series,” Andrey Fradkin presented “The Informational Content of Implied Volatility in Individual Stocks and the Market,” and Ryan Tolkin and Michael Sloyer presented “VIX as a Fix: Equity Volatility in a Life Cycle Investing Context.” All of these authors are Duke students. Emmanuel Bello from UNC-Chapel Hill mixed financial economics with industrial organization in his paper, “Revisiting the Davis Thesis: Preliminary Evidence of Stock Market Impact on Industrial Concentration.”

Family economics was also well represented at this year’s Symposium. These papers included “The Effects of Sexual Education on Women’s Labor Force Participation,” by Meghan Morris of UNC-Chapel Hill; “Risky Business: The Effect of Family Income on Teen Risky Sexual Behavior,” by Valerie Kaplan and Caitlin McLaughlin, both of Duke; and “The Effect of Abortion Restrictions on Foster Care Entry Rates,” by Sarah Sutherland, also a Duke student.

Education policy was the other topic area with multiple papers presented. The first was “Tracking Decisions in North Carolina’s Public High Schools,” by Mike Harris of Duke. The second was a joint effort among Davidson College students Ben Ellinor, Arthur Etchells, and Andrew Waddell entitled “Improving Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools: Addressing Labor Market Failures.”

Several other excellent papers individually represented other fields of economics. Aleksandr Andreev’s paper “To Work or Not to Work: Labor Supply Decisions of Russia’s Disabled” dealt with a fundamental issue in labor economics. Aleksandr is a Duke student. R. Andrew Butters of UNC-Chapel Hill presented this year’s microeconomic theory paper, “The Effect of the Learning Curve on the Optimal Dynamic Contract.” And finally, Sruthi Thatchenkery of Duke presented the timely empirical microeconomics paper “Determinants of Demand for Hybrid-Electric Vehicles.”

One paper presented in this year’s Symposium does not appear in this issue of the DJE because it has already appeared in an earlier issue: Jiasheng Lee’s “Evaluating the Elderly Retired in a Tiebout Context.” Jiasheng is a Duke student.

Special congratulations go out to Aleksandr Andreev for winning the Best Paper prize, and to Peter Van Tassel, who won the Runner Up prize this year.

Connel Fullenkamp, 
Faculty Sponsor

Articles

To Work or Not to Work? Labor Supply Decisions of Russia’s Disabled by Aleksandr A. Andreev

Revisiting the Davis Thesis: Preliminary Evidence of Stock Market Impact on Industrial Concentration by Emmanuel Bello

The Effect of the Learning Curve on the Optimal Dynamic Contract by R. Andrew Butters

The Informational Content of Implied Volatility in Individual Stocks and the Market by Andrey Fradkin

Tracking Decisions in North Carolina’s Public High Schools by Michael B. Harris

Risky Business: The Effect of Family Income on Teen Risky Sexual Behavior by Valerie Kaplan and Caitlin McLaughlin

The Effect of Sexual Education on Women’s Labor Force Participation by Meghan Morris

The VIX as a Fix: Equity Volatility as a Lifelong Investment Enhancer by Michael Sloyer and Ryan Tolkin

Undue Burdens: The Effect of Abortion Restrictions on Foster Care Entry Rates by Sarah MacDonald Sutherland

Determinants of Automobile Demand and Implications for Hybrid-Electric Market Penetration by Sruthi M. Thatchenkery

Patterns Within the Trading Day: Volatility and Jump Discontinuities in High Frequency Equity Price Series by Peter Van Tassel