2013. A Mathematics Course for Political and Social Research Princeton University Press. (with Will H. Moore) (Link to Book’s Page)

2011. A Behavioral Theory of Elections. Princeton University Press. (with Jonathan Bendor, Daniel Diermeier, and Michael M. Ting) (Link to Book’s Page)

  • Honorable mention for the 2012 William F. Riker Prize for the best book in political economics.

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles and Book Chapters:

Forthcoming. “Diplomatic Signals and the Strategic Use of Terrorism in Civil Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. (with Gabriella Levy, Rebecca Dudley, and Chong Chen) (Link to Paper, Replication Files

2023. “Talking to the Enemy: Explaining the Emergence of Peace Talks in Interstate War.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 35 (3): 182-203. (with Oriana Skylar Mastro) (Link to Paper (Gated), Link to Paper (Ungated), Link to Formal Appendix

2022. “INS special forum on David Sherman’s ‘An Intelligence Classic That Almost Never Was – Roberta Wohlstetter’s Pearl Harbor: warning and decision’.” Intelligence and National Security 37 (3): 346–358. (with James J. Wirtz, Jacob N. Shapiro, Amy Zegart, and Loch K. Johnson.) (Link to Paper)

2021. “Inclusive and Non-inclusive Networks.” PS: Political Science & Politics 54(3): 507-509. (with Anisha C. Datta). (Link to Paper)

2020. “Cults of personality, preference falsification, and the dictator’s dilemma.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 32(3): 409-434. (with Charles Crabtree and Holger Kern) (Link to Paper, Appendix)

2020. “Hierarchy and the Provision of Order in International Politics.” Journal of Politics 82(2): 731-746. (with Kyle Beardsley, Howard Liu, Peter Mucha, and Juan Tellez) (Link to Paper, Ungated Version, Appendix)

2020. “Networks and Media Influence.” In the Oxford Handbook of Electoral Persuasion edited by Elizabeth Suhay, Bernard Grofman, and Alexander Trechsel. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. (Link to Paper)

2019. “Identifiability, State Repression, and the Onset of Ethnic Conflict.” Public Choice (3-4): 399-422. (with Christine Mele) (Link to Paper, Ungated Version, Appendix)

2019. “Pink Slips from the Underground: Changes in Terror Leadership.” International Studies Quarterly 63(2): 231-243. (with Margaret Foster) (Link to Paper, Ungated Version)

2019. “New Techniques in Teaching Terrorism.” In the Oxford Handbook on Terrorism, edited by Erica Chenoweth, Richard English, Andreas Gofas, and Stathis N. Kalyvas. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. Ch. 34. (Link to Paper)

2018. “Analyzing Computational Models.” American Journal of Political Science 62 (3): 745-759. (Link to Paper (Gated), Link to Final Submission, Appendix, Computational Model Code–Java, Computational Model Code–Python)

2017. “Identity, Repression, and the Threat of Ethnic Conflict in a Strong State.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 29 (4): 578-598. (with Christine S. Mele) (Link to Paper)

2017. “Democratic Institutions and Political Networks.” In the Oxford Handbook of Political Networks, edited by Jennifer Nicoll Victor, Mark Lubell, and Alexander H. Montgomery. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press 817-833. (Link to Paper)

2015. “Coordination and Security: How Mobile Communications Affect Insurgency.” Journal of Peace Research 52 (3): 312-322. (with Jacob N. Shapiro) (Link to Paper)

2014. “Response to Martin and Vanberg: Evaluating a Stochastic Model of Government Formation.” Journal of Politics 76 (4): 880-886(with Matt Golder and Sona N. Golder) (Link to Paper)

2013. “Social Networks and the Mass Media.” American Political Science Review 107 (4): 786-805. (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

2013. “Will You Accept the Government’s Friend Request? Social Networks and Privacy Concerns.” PLoS ONE 8 (11): e80682. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0080682. (Link to Paper, Replication Materials).

2013. “Religious Participation, Social Conservatism, and Human Development.” Journal of Politics 75 (4): 1125-1141. (with Ben Gaskins and Matt Golder) (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix, Replication Materials)

2013. “Religious Participation and Economic Conservatism.” American Journal of Political Science 57 (4): 823-840. (with Ben Gaskins and Matt Golder) (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix, Replication Materials)

2012. “Modeling the Institutional Foundations of Parliamentary Government Formation.” Journal of Politics 74 (2)427-445(with Matt Golder and Sona N. Golder) (Link to Paper, Replication Materials)

2012. “Moral Hazard, Discipline, and the Management of Terrorist Organizations.” World Politics 64 (1): 39-78. (with Jacob N. Shapiro) (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

2011. “When Does Repression Work?: Collective Action and Social Networks.” Journal of Politics 73 (4): 993-1010. (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

  • Winner of the 2012 Political Ties Award for the best paper on political networks over the past two years.

2011. “Identity, Bargaining, and Third-Party Mediation.” International Theory 3 (3): 416-449. (with Ray Block, Jr.) (Link to Paper)

2011. “Non-disruptive Tactics of Suppression are Superior in Countering Terrorism, Insurgency, and Financial Panics.” PLoS ONE 6 (4): e18545. doi:10.371/journal.pone.0018545. (Link to Paper)

2011. “A Strategic Theory of Policy Diffusion via Intergovernmental Competition.” Journal of Politics 73 (1): 232-247. (with Brady Baybeck and William D. Berry) (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

2011. “Social Networks in Comparative Perspective.” PS: Political Science & Politics 44 (1): 51-54. (Link to Paper)

2010. “Is This Paper Dangerous? Balancing secrecy and openness in counterterrorism.” Security Studies 19 (1) 66-98. (with Jacob N. Shapiro) (Link to Paper, Mathematical Appendix)

2010. “Adaptively Rational Retrospective Voting.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 22 (1): 26-63. (with Jonathan Bendor and Sunil Kumar) (Link to Paper)

2009. “Simulating Terrorism:  Credible Commitment, Costly Signaling, and Strategic Behavior.” PS: Political Science & Politics 42 (4): 765-771. (with Joseph K. Young) (Link to Paper, Simulation Materials)

2009. “Social Networks and Collective Action.” American Journal of Political Science 53 (1): 122-138. (Link to Paper, Technical Appendix)

2009. “Satisficing: A ‘Pretty Good’ Heuristic.” The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics: Vol. 9: Iss. 1 (Advances), Article 9. (with Jonathan Bendor and Sunil Kumar). (Link to Paper)

2007. “Underfunding in Terrorist Organizations.” International Studies Quarterly 51 (2): 405-429. (with Jacob N. Shapiro) (Link to Paper, Mathematical Appendix)

  • 2009. Reprinted in N. Memon, J. D. Farley, D. L. Hicks, and T Rosenorn eds., Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism, Springer Wien New York.

2007. “Rational Parties and Retrospective Voters.” In Topics in Analytical Political Economy, edited by William Barnett and Melvin J. Hinich, pp. 1-30. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. (with Jonathan Bendor and Sunil Kumar) (Paper)


Under Review/Revision:

“The costs of collective action: an experimental study of risk, punishment, and immunity” with Gloria Cheung

“Measurement That Matches Theory: Theory-Driven Identification in IRT Models” with Marco Morucci, Margaret Foster, Katie Webster, and So Jin Lee

“Can Money Buy Control of Congress?” with William Minozzi and Gabe Madson

Working Papers:

State Interventions and the Growth or Suppression of Terror and Insurgent Attacks” (with Margaret Foster, Katie Webster, So Jin Lee, Marco Morucci, Liz Carlson, and Will Moore)

“Innovation versus Resource Demand in the Face of Population Change and Resource Fluctuation” with (Charlotte Lee)

“A Theory of Deliberation as Interactive Reasoning” (with William Minozzi and Michael Neblo)

“Deliberative Networks: Social Structure and Group Decision-Making” (with Scott McClurg and Anand Sokhey)


Book Reviews:

2013. Review of Meredith Rolfe’s Voter Turnout: A Social Theory of Political Participation in the Journal of Politics 75 (1): E3 (doi:10.1017/S0022381612001041).

2008. Review of Mikkel Vedby Rasmussens’s The Risk Society at War: Terror, Technology, and Strategy in the Twenty-First Century in Perspectives on Politics 6 (2): 427-428.


Other Publications:

1998. “Laser polarized muonic He-3 and spin dependent mu(-) capture.” Nuclear Instruments & Methods in Physics Research Section A-Accelerators Spectrometers Detectors and Associated Equipment. 402: (2-3) 311-318. (with PA Souder et al.)

1997. “A combined polarized target/ionization chamber for measuring the spin dependence of nuclear muon capture in laser polarized muonic He-3. Nuclear Instruments & Methods in Physics Research Section A-Accelerators Spectrometers Detectors and Associated Equipment. 398: (2-3) 211-223. (with P Bogorad et al.)

1996. “Laser-polarized muonic He-3 and a measurement of the induced pseudoscalar coupling.” Hyperfine Interactions. 102: 433-437. (with P Bogorad et al.)