I am somewhat in disbelief that I am on an airplane right now headed to Glasgow for COP-26. All semester long, I have been expecting the UNFCCC or the UK government to cancel in-person events or Duke to revoke our travel approval. And yet here I am. It is my first time traveling abroad since the beginning of COVID. My first time wearing dress shoes after a year and a half of pairing my blazer with slippers. My first time attending the event that sets the agenda for climate action across the globe. I am shocked, excited, and honored.
Throughout the semester, we have learned about the evolution of UNFCCC climate agreements over their roughly 30-year history. Over time, negotiations have matured to the point where countries today are focused on implementing programs to make meaningful progress to fight the worst impacts of climate change. The central topics include:
- Reviewing whether countries’ emissions reduction targets (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) comply with rules established in the Paris Agreement and are sufficient in aggregate to stave off a global warming effect of 2 degrees Celsius;
- Finalizing rules to open carbon markets per Article 6 of the Paris Agreement; and
- Ensuring developed countries meet targets for funding capacity building for climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries
Each of these topics is critically important but fraught with drama. Eight countries have already violated the Paris Agreement’s rules for announcing NDCs. Five have either failed to progress the aggressiveness of their NDC or even reduced their commitment and three missed the deadline to update their NDC. Brazil and a few allies have taken negotiations hostage by vehemently opposing Article 6 rules upon which parties have otherwise reached consensus. Developed countries have fallen pitifully short of their goals for funding mitigation and adaptation in the global south. France has taken climate finance shortcuts by providing loans rather than grants. It will be fascinating to see how these issues unfold on the floor of the COP
I am personally feeling a bizarre mixture of optimism and skepticism. On one hand, global leaders are finally recognizing that a changing climate poses extreme environmental, social, and economic threats. And they’re pledging to do something about it. Political momentum is coinciding with technological momentum and signs of the economic viability of decarbonizing the global economy. On the other hand, we are seeing that real progress is a lot harder than political promises and climate modeling. For example, President Biden will be attending the COP on the heels of an embarrassing defeat of his Clean Energy Performance Plan at the hands of a member of his own political party.
Even if it has its flaws, the Paris Agreement’s symbolism is powerful. In my experience following energy and climate policy, I have seen how climate ambition and emissions reduction strategies begin at the UN and proliferate in a myriad of iterations across the world. From an IPCC report catalyzing state governments and utilities adopting net zero by 2050 targets to the emergence of regional carbon markets after the UNFCCC began building the framework for Article 6.
I can’t wait to get on the ground, observe negotiations, and learn from experts from around the world. When I graduate and become a climate leader in my own right, I will be able to draw on my COP experience. I will be able to work on clean energy transition policy and programs that feed into the global collective effort to build a climate resilient society. I cannot overstate what a privilege it is to be going to COP-26.
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