Summer 2021 Floods in China, Source – The Washington Post 

Aptly termed throughout media as ‘The Last Chance’, COP 26 will be pivotal to humanity’s fight for survival. Although COPs have been an annual affair for over two decades, the significance of COP 26 has not been lost on the media. The postponing of last year’s COP due to COVID-19 and the devasting impacts of climate change seen this summer have only added to the expectations from COP 26. The myriad of issues discussed over the two-week-long COPs can be disorienting. So what do we watch out for at COP 26? In this opinion blog post, I present the importance of commitments on fossil fuel phase-outs, adequate climate financing, and a Just Transition for climate-vulnerable communities as barometers for the success of COP 26.

A universal agreement that limits warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will demonstrate the commitment of countries towards climate mitigation. The world came together in 2015 to sign the Paris Climate Accord to lower carbon emissions and prevent the planet from warming ‘well below’ 2° Celsius. Six years since then, the world is generating record-breaking emissions. The flexibility in the agreement’s language gave too much liberty to parties to procrastinate reducing emissions. The 2020 IPCC report gave the world just a decade to halve our carbon emissions. The most recent 2021 IPCC report presented a stark reality. Even if emissions were sharply cut today, Earth is likely to exceed 1.5 ° Celsius warming. In light of these ominous signs, COP 26 needs to cap the level of warming deemed as acceptable to 1.5 degrees.

Net Zero commitments far out in the future are nowhere enough for climate change mitigation. Abating the incessant production of fossil fuels is critical to meeting the 2030 target for halving carbon emissions. We (through Exxon Mobil nonetheless) have known the precise cause of global warming since the 1980s – the rampant consumption of fossil fuels for human activity. No COP has acknowledged the continued use of fossil fuels as a problem and the urgent need to transform our energy and transportation systems away from fossil fuels. Given that our fossil fuel emissions have only consistently increased, despite the call to the contrary in the Paris Agreement, this COP should commit to halving fossil fuel emissions by 2030.

Many of the climate change effects are already happening. The brunt of this inevitable climate crisis will be borne by poorer nations and climate-vulnerable communities. The $100 billion/year adaptation funding committed to developing countries has consistently fallen short of its target. Investigative reports from earlier this year have rather asserted that much of the funding was offered as loans rather than grants. Allegations of misclassification of ordinary funds as adaptation funds have been leveled. Developed countries haven’t been receptive to demands from developing countries to start paying loss and damage for climate-related disaster events. Commitments backed with substantial financing will also go a long way in incentivizing developing countries to advance their NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions).

Adoption of a Just Transition framework will safeguard the economic, environmental, and social rights of residents and workers who are from climate-vulnerable communities. The fast pace of energy transition required by science-based targets needs to be matched with economic opportunities for workers’ participation.  Climate financing commitments that support workers’ transition to an inclusive green economy should be made at COP 26. COPs are notorious for the exclusion of climate-vulnerable populations like Indigenous communities, worker unions from the Global South, women, the disabled, and people of color. Challenges due to COVID-19 will only exacerbate the gulf between the privileged and disadvantaged groups in their access to decision-making at COPs. It remains to be seen how this COP will address the historical inequities as well as the exclusionary challenges from the pandemic.

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Written by Indraneel Dharwadkar. The author is an MBA/MPP Candidate at Duke University. He is interested in environmental justice and advancing a just transition through equitable climate financing.