The Duke Journal of Economics is published each year to showcase outstanding research in economics by Duke Graduate and Undergraduate students.

We congratulate the authors of the research presented in this issue.

Charles Becker, Lawrence Kreicher, and Ed Tower, Faculty Advisors to the Journal 

 

Undergraduate Articles

Colicchio, Thomas–Bias in Fact Checking?: An Analysis of Partisan Trends Using PolitiFact Data

Govan, Esme–Bailing on Justice: Plea Bargain Sentencing Outcomes

Karna, Neha–What Affects Post-Merger Innovation Outcomes? An Empirical Study of R&D Intensity in High Technology Transactions Among U.S. Firms

Wijesekera, Nicholas Kiran–Illuminating the Economic Costs of Conflict: A Night Light Analysis of the Sri Lankan Civil War

Zhao, Yirui–Technological Impacts on Return to Education in Brazil

 

Graduate Articles

Faruk, Avinno–Some Theoretical Deliberations on the Challenges and Behaviors of the Shock-Induced New Poor

Wang, Yingfan–Some Thoughts on Job Market Signaling with Human Capital 

Zhao, Xiaoyi–Effect of Physician-Assisted Suicide and Euthanasia on Unassisted Suicide

The Duke Journal of Economics is published each year to showcase outstanding research in economics by Duke Graduate and Undergraduate students.

We congratulate the authors of the research presented in this issue.

Charles Becker & Ed Tower, Faculty Advisors to the Journal

This edition of the Duke Journal of Economics is dedicated to the memory of Vlad Treml. Ed Tower recalls that Vlad collected cartoons from the Soviet humor magazine, Krokodil, Crocodile in Russian, which made fun of the distortions in the Soviet economic system. Tower and his micro econ students attended Vlad’s slide shows of these cartoons, to which his daughter added color. One cartoon shows a farmer feeding a loaf of bread to a cow. Vlad explained this made fun of the Soviet subsidy on bread but not grain, so it made sense to feed bread to the cows. Vlad and Emma hosted marvelous parties with fascinating guests from their wide circle of friends. Marilyn Dutton, who along with her husband, John, earned Duke econ PhDs, recalls that the Russian Easter bread that Emma made was memorable. She writes gratefully about Vlad’s mentorship of John and reflects with us that “Duke and many students were fortunate that Vlad Treml was on the faculty.” Especially moving was the flag draped bier at Vlad’s Russian Orthodox funeral, recalling his pride in serving in the US Marines.

Undergraduate Articles

Alleyne, Jair–Is Affordable Housing Moving Mobile? Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 on Demand for Manufactured Housing

Brandt, Alexander–Economic Situations and Social Distance: Taxation and Donation

Chouliara, Despoina–Corporate Governance in State-Owned and Privately-Owned Enterprises

Cooksey, Jackson–The Russian Maternity Capital Policy: Two Models

Kanzh, Riad–Paper available upon request to dus_asst@econ.duke.edu

Martin, Noah–Kazakhs and Russians: To Each Their Own

Morgenstern, Glenn–Subprime’s long shadow: Understanding subprime lending’s role in the St. Louis vacancy crisis

Quijano, Cheyenne–A perfect storm: The effect of natural disasters on child health

Rateb, George–The Case for Clemency: Differential Impacts of Pretrial Detention on Case and Crime Outcomes

Sun, Tony–Short and Long-Term Impacts of a Large-Scale Natural Disaster on Individual Labor Outcomes: Evidence from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

Tong, Mona–The Effects of Gentrification and Displacement on Academic Achievement in Durham Public Schools, 2010-2019

Welton, Daniella–Analysis of the Impact of Gender and Age of Protagonists in Top-Grossing Films from 2000-2019 on Film Success

 

Graduate Articles

Dodd, Stephanie–Rational Irreligiosity via Cognitive Dissonance 

He, Weixin–Product and process innovation when considering changes in consumer dispersion

Pandey, Rajas–Optimal environmental reporting and the role of regulations

Wang, Yucheng–Collusion as an Indirect Signal

This volume is the ninth annual publication of the Duke Journal of Economics, formerly the Undergraduate Economics Journal. Founded in 1988, the Journal is a showcase for the outstanding contributions made each year to the discipline of economics by Duke undergraduates. It is now on-line at www.econ.duke.edu/Joumals/DJE/dje.html. In order to recognize the best work submitted to the Duke Journal of Economics, the Journal awards a prize for the best submission each year. We would like to congratulate Peter Ahlin for being selected as the second annual winner for his submission, “Equilibrium Existence in the Symmetric Hotelling Model with Negative Network Effects.” Professor Herve Moulin advised this paper.

The Journal would like to thank Craufurd Goodwin, Edward Tower, the Allen Starling Johnson Fund, Jr. Endowment Fund, and the staff of the Duke University Economics Department.

Manuscript submissions should be forwarded to Duke Journal of Economics, Duke University, Room 305 Social Sciences, Durham, NC 27708.

Contents

Equilibrium Existence in the Symmetric Hotelling Model with Negative Network Effects by Peter Ahlin………………………………………………… 1

Economic Science and Social Security Analysis: A Lakatosian Perspective by Robert A. Pleasant …………………. ~………………… 29

Sweetening the Pot: the Determinants of Sugar PAC Contributions by Justin P. Knowles……………………………………….. 91

Telecommunications in China by Taryn O’Neill……………………………………………… 104

A Different Approach to Duration by Mike Meyers………………………………………………. 121

Oligopolies in the Commercial Airline Industry: A Historical Focus on American Airlines by John Mack.~························································ 134

Volatility Modeling in Finance by Michael A. Tito………………………………… 150

Asymmetric Information in the New Issue Market: A Function of lPO

Premarket Underpricing and Aftermarket Herd Behavior by Manya Klempner …. ……………………………………. 177

 

China’s Population and it$ Challenge to Economic Development by Sergio La~unes…………….. … . … . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. 208

This volume is the seventh annual publication of the Duke Journal of Economics, formerly
the Undergraduate Economics Journal. Founded in 1988, the Journal is a showcase for
the outstanding contributions made each year to the economics discipline by Duke students.
The format of this issue has been altered from past Journals in two major respects:
I. The papers selected were written by current Duke undergraduates, in order
to reflect the work of undergraduates in their last three years at Duke.
2. A modest book review segment has been added.
The papers contained in this volume are all written by Duke undergraduates, and the book
reviews have been written by a mix of undergraduate and graduate students. They have
been edited for length and clarity.
Thanks to Bruce D. Fitzgerald, the Allen Starling Johnson, Jr. Endowment Fund, Dorothy
Armento, and the staff of the Duke University Economics Department.
Manuscript submissions should be forwarded to Dr. Edward Tower or Dr. Neil DeMarchi
of the Department of Economics.

JOHN R. EVANS      J. MICHAEL RAMICH

 

Contents 

TOGETHER AGAIN? REINTEGRATION AND REFORM IN THE COMMONWEALTH OF INDEPENDENT STATES
by Katrina Sherry
THE SUNSET GENERATION IN THE LAND OF THE RISING SUN: A DISCUSSION OF THE MACROECONOMJC IMPLICATIONS OF JAPAN’S AGING POPULATION
by Eve Harmon
BASEBALL’S #1 PARADOX: DIVERGENT BIDDING AND ESCALATING SALARIES AS A RESULT OF FINAL OFFER ARBITRATION IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
by Mark Streams
BANKING ON CHANGE: DEPOSIT INSURANCE REFORM AND THE RISK-BASED PREMJUM
by Nathan Goldstein
NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT
by Michael R. Lofgren
SUPER 301 AND JAPANESE TRADE RELATIONS
by Justin Knowles
CONVERGENCE AND NEO-CLASSICAL GROWTH REVISITED
by Michael Kelly

Book Reviews
The Armchair Economist, Stephen Landsburg
The Free Press, Macmillan Inc., 1993
review by David Wilson Martin

Peddling Prosperity, Paul Krugman
W.W. Norton and Co., 1994
review by Edward Eung-Jun Yi

The Rise and Decline of Nations, Mancur Olson
Yale University Press, 1982
review by Alex Mendoza

Economic Policies of Cross-Purposes, Anne 0. Krueger
The Brookings Institution, 1993
review by S. Ramaswamy

The East Asian Miracle, The World Bank
Oxford University Press, 1993
review by Thomas Fernandez

The Order of Economic Liberalization, R.l. McKinnon
Johns Hopkins, 1991
review by Joseph H. Davis

This volume is the sixth annual publication of the Duke Journal of Economics, formerly
the Undergraduate Economics Journal. Founded in 1988, the Journal is a showcase for
the outstanding contributions made each year to the economics discipline by Duke
undergraduates.
In this issue:
•Gary Cohen analyzes inequities in voting power;
•Tony Schopen explores the debates surrounding capital gains tax cuts;
•Arielle Horman investigates the causes and consequences of the declining number
of young black males in the “marriage market;”
•C. Geoffrey Bums pioneers new methods of estimating health care costs for
individual states;
•Travis Pearson examines the United States’ relative economic decline in the post-War
world;
•H. Peter Hess, Jr. addressed the issue of employing economic incentives to
control air pollution;
•Sean Fahey presents a critical analysis of the practice of short selling.
Each year the Duke Economics Faculty awards prizes to the most outstanding honors
theses. We would like to congratulate C. Geoffrey Burns and Tony Schopen for being
awarded first- and second-prizes respectively for the class of 1993.
The papers contained in this volume are abstracts of honors theses and other work done
by Duke economics majors. The:,;_ have been edited for length and clarity.
Thanks to Bruce D. Fitzgerald, the Allen Starling Johnson, Jr. Endowment Fund, Louise
Merriam, and the staff of the Duke University Economics Department
‘-.
Manuscript submissions should be forwarded to Dr. Edward Tower or Dr. Neil DeMarchi
of the Department of Economics.
MA TT CROSSLAND                         JOE SHIFFLER

 

ALL VOTES ARE NOT CREATED EQUAL: AN ANALYSIS OF VOTING POWER
by Gary Cohen……………………………………………………………….1

THE CURRENT ISSUE OF CAPITAL GAINS
by Tony Schopen……………………………………………………………23

THE DECREASING AVAILABILITY OF YOUNG BLACK MALES IN THE MARRIAGE MARKET
by Arielle Horman…………………………………………………………..73

TWO MODELS TO PROJECT PER CAPITA PERSONAL HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURES BY STATE, SELECTED YEARS, 1990-2020
by C. Geoffrey Burns………………………………………………………93

AMERICA’S RELATIVE DECLINE AND THE NON-ECONOMIC USES OF RESOURCES
by Travis Pearson…………………………………………………………111

THE EMISSIONS TRADING PROGRAM
by H. Peter Hess, Jr………………………………………………………151

EVOLUTION OF THE WINDHANDEL: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF SHORT SELLING
by Sean Fahey………………………………………………………………169