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Drought Exposure and the Livestock Forage Disaster Program: Impacts on U.S. Cattle Populations
by Helena Kagan
Abstract
This paper examines the impacts of drought conditions, as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), on U.S. beef cattle inventories between 2000 and 2023. Using a county-level panel dataset and fixed effects models that exploit geographical and time variation in drought exposure, we estimate how additional weeks of various drought severity levels affect annual cattle populations. We find that weeks spent in extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought significantly reduce herd sizes, with D3 associated with an 11-basis point decline and D4 with a 27-basis point decline per week. We assess the interaction between prolonged drought and participation in the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP), a federal disaster assistance program. Results show that LFP payments—especially the 4‐month and 5‐month tiers triggered by extended D3 or D4 drought—partially offset the effects of drought on herd retention. Ultimately, our analysis provides empirical evidence that persistent, high-severity drought reduces cattle inventories, but targeted disaster assistance can mitigate these impacts.
Professor Jeffrey DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle P. Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: Q18, Q54, Q12
Keywords: Drought, Livestock Forage Disaster Program, Cattle
Alcohol Use and Assault: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the Minimum Legal Drinking Age
by Maggie Hu
Abstract
While it has long been observed that alcohol consumption is a risk factor for violence, the economics literature has up until recently provided minimal persuasive evidence regarding the causal nature of this relationship. In this study, we employ a regression discontinuity (RD) framework to examine how arrest and victimization rates from assault change at age 21, the U.S. minimum legal drinking age (MLDA-21). Utilizing annual FBI arrest data from the past 36 years since 1988, when the last states adopted the MLDA-21, we estimate that for both males and females, reaching the MLDA increases arrest rates for aggravated and other simple assaults by 5 – 8%, with the aggravated assault effect for females restricted to the latter half of the sample period. Analogous effects at slightly older ages are small and insignificant, as well as the effects for demographic and population characteristics expected to trend smoothly across the MLDA-21 threshold. We extend our analysis of assault-related violence by assessing victimization outcomes, particularly the effect of the MLDA-21 nonfatal injury, by leveraging emergency department (ED) data from the CDC’s Web-based Injury Statistics and Query Reporting System (WISQARS) spanning the period 2001–2022. Notably, we observe that ED visits for “struck by or against” assaults rise significantly by 7–10%, indicating increased participation in violent altercations and increased risk of victimization upon obtaining legal access to alcohol. Taken together, these results suggest that alcohol use increases aggression and violent behavior, the consequences of which thereby represent criminal justice and public health costs that would be exacerbated by lowering the MLDA.
Professor Jeffrey DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: I18, I12, K0, K32
Keywords: Health Economics, Alcohol Policy, Education and Welfare
How Foreign Direct Investment Impacts Domestic Productivity: The Case of Vietnam
by Minh Phuong Nguyen Hoang
Abstract
Foreign direct investment (FDI) has long been known as a vital driver of economic growth in many developing countries by providing capital boosts, generating employment, and introducing advanced technology. This paper focuses on a more long-term economic impact of FDI — the productivity spillover effect — in the specific case of Vietnam. Using firm-level data from the Vietnam’s Enterprise Survey from 2013 to 2022, I conduct a regional analysis to investigate 1) how foreign presence affects the productivity of firms in the region, and 2) how engagement in international activity further boosts firms’ productivity. Findings indicate that both domestic and foreign firms experience a statistically significant productivity boost as the level of foreign presence in the province increases, with domestic firms seeing a more substantial positive impact. Overall, my study aims to present a comprehensive picture of the dynamic between FDI and domestic productivity, thereby offering insights into how foreign investment can shape Vietnam’s economic landscape. This research can help inform Vietnam’s strategic FDI policies to foster technological advancement and strengthen its global economic integration, which has become a critical priority as the country navigates an unprecedented influx of high-tech foreign investment spurred by the ongoing US-China trade war.
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
Professor Edmund Malesky, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: F21; F43; O30; O33
Keywords: FDI, Productivity, Knowledge Spillover, Vietnam, Economic Development
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Directing Development: Do One-Way Roads Inhibit Downtown Development? A Case Study of Hickory, North Carolina
by Adeleine Geitner
Abstract
In cities across the United States, residents and policymakers have passed measures to increase accessibility and walkability as a strategy for revitalizing disinvested downtowns. Alongside many of these measures, one-way roads have been reverted to two-way traffic due to their observed hindrance on walkability and pedestrian safety. In Hickory, North Carolina, planners perceive the land along the city’s downtown one-ways as less viable for development due to the speed and load of the traffic that they carry. This study observes the impact of one-way roads on the efficacy of a downtown pedestrian infrastructure plan that the city passed in 2014, aimed at increasing investment and development in the city’s downtown. It uses a difference-in-differences approach to measure how the indirect effects of this investment package are felt on one-way road properties relative to two-way road properties within the central business district.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R12; R58
Keywords: one-way streets; downtown redevelopment; property value appreciation; vacant land reclamation
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The Impact of Land Use Restriction on Housing Supply and Urban Form
by Brendan Patrick Elliott
Abstract
Rising home prices have led to public concern regarding housing affordability and availability. Interest in the role that land use regulations may play in reducing housing availability has been of increasing interest. While many of these regulations were initially implemented to preserve neighborhood character and promote sustainable growth, many contend that these regulations have the unintentional consequence of restricting supply and raising housing costs. Previous literature typically studies the impacts of land use regulation in individual cities or metropolitan areas, but questions remain whether these results can generalize to other cities across the country. Utilizing a two-time period panel dataset on city-level regulations across the nation, I assess whether minimum lot size, project approval delays, and impact fees cause a reduction in housing availability across cities. In most cases, increased levels of these regulations reduce housing availability in jurisdictions of medium to high population density whereas results are insignificant for jurisdictions of low population density.
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R14; R31; R38
Keywords: Land Use, Zoning, Housing Supply
The Impact of Quiet Zone Implementation on Accident Incidence at Highway-rail Grade Crossings
by Jack Duhon
Abstract
In the last five years, (2019-2023) there have been 10,704 accidents
at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs) in the United States, resulting
in 3,859 injuries and 1,233 fatalities. This paper seeks to address impact
of quiet zones, where trains are not allowed to blow their horns before
going through a crossing, on HRGC safety in the United States. Using
a two-way fixed effects model, we find evidence of quiet zones increasing
accident incidence and accident severity, in some instances at a level far
higher than believed by the Federal Railroad Administration.
Professor Jeff DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: L92; L98; R41
Keywords: Accident, Railroad, Quiet Zone
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Action or Distraction? Assessing the Impact of Post-2020 Police Use of Force Reforms in American Cities
by Vineet Chovatia
Abstract
Between 2013 and 2024, police killed 13,468 people in the United States. Low-income communities of color, who are disproportionately targeted, bear the brunt of this violence. This reality reflects a legacy rooted in a deeply racist history that continues to shape American policing today. In the wake of regular, highly-publicized killings of unarmed Black and Brown Americans and large-scale social movements advocating for police reform, police departments in many American cities implemented a range of reforms over the course of the 21st century. We use data on the adoption of seven of these reforms along with police shootings and killings data from 94 of America’s largest cities to construct fixed effects difference in differences models that estimate the effect of these policies individually and in combination on police shootings and killings. Our findings suggest that chokehold bans, de-escalation policies, and comprehensive reporting reforms are associated with reductions in police shootings when implemented together while findings with regards to police killings are more mixed, but indicate that combinations of these policies are associated with reductions in killings as well.
Professor Michelle P. Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: C23, K42, K14
Keywords: Police Use of Force; Fixed Effect Difference in Differences; Post-2020 Police Reforms
RadioWaves and Ballot Boxes: How Conservative Broadcasting Influenced Southern Electoral Behavior
by Ian Carlson Bailey
Abstract
This study examines how conservative talk radio influenced electoral behavior in the American South during the postwar era. Focusing on Carl McIntire’s “Twentieth Century Reformation Hour” program, I exploit exogenous variation in radio signal strength driven by topographical differences to identify causal effects on voting patterns. Using a novel dataset combining archival records with technical broadcasting data, I find that exposure to McIntire’s broadcasts significantly reduced support for Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kennedy in the 1960 election by 1.4 percentage points while increasing Republican candidate Richard Nixon’s vote share by 0.9 percentage points, with negligible effects on voter turnout. These effects were strongest in counties with the lowest proportions of Protestant residents, suggesting a ceiling effect in areas already predisposed toward conservatism. Furthermore, exposure to McIntire’s program increased the probability Democratic congressmen would vote against Kennedy’s 1962 Trade Expansion Act, demonstrating that partisan media influence extended beyond electoral outcomes to shape legislative behavior.
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: D72; L82; N42
Keywords: Media Effects; Political Economy; Electoral Behavior; Conservative Radio; Partisan
Realignment
The Effect of Community Uninsurance Rates on Access to Health Care among the Insured
by Isabella Antonio
Abstract
While the direct effects of being uninsured have been studied extensively, there is significantly less research on how a high community uninsured rate can impact health care access for insured individuals. Using data from SMART BRFSS, I examine the effect of community uninsured rates on access to health care for insured individuals ages 18 to 64 years old. Controlling for MMSA-level fixed effects and year fixed effects, I estimate the effect of community uninsurance on the likelihood of an insured individual skipping care due to cost, the likelihood of an insured individual having at least one personal doctor, and the likelihood of an insured individual delaying a physical exam, cholesterol check, or pap smear. Results suggest that a 10 percentage point increase in the community uninsured rate decreases the likelihood of an insured individual having at least one personal doctor by 0.304 percentage points and increases the likelihood of delaying a physical exam, cholesterol check, or pap smear by 0.590 to 2.31 percentage points. These findings suggests that policies aimed at reducing the uninsured rate, such as the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid expansion, may produce widespread benefits for all Americans, both the uninsured and the insured.
Professor Jeffrey DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: I1, I11, I13
Keywords: Health insurance, Health care access
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