The Impact of 2021 Advance Child Tax Credit Payments on Low-Income Households’ Labor Supply
by Zixin “Ellen” Zhang
Abstract
Studies have established that the Advance 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC) payments substantially reduced poverty and food insecurity, but some claim that the CTC payments may create negative labor supply effects that could offset its hardship-reduction benefits. Researchers have used a variety of methods to measure how the monthly CTC payments affect the labor supply of households, but the results vary from significant decreases to no significant change to even increases in household labor supply. Using a method novel to this literature, I estimate the labor supply impacts of Advance 2021 CTC by analyzing labor supply changes in response to real amounts of CTC received, which varies by household depending on regional cost-of-livings. Through fixed effects linear regressions across many different combinations of household type and income level, I find that, on average, receiving Advance CTC caused a statistically significant decrease in household labor supply. However, for different household subgroups, I find both statistically significant and insignificant labor supply impacts as well as both increases, decreases, and no change in households’ labor supply due to monthly CTC payments. This suggests that the impacts of 2021 Advance CTC on household labor depend heavily on a household’s situation, specifically income level and household composition. These household-specific patterns align with prior research on the Advance 2021 CTC and how welfare payments are used by families.
Professor Thomas Nechyba, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: C31, H24, I38, J22
Benefit Spillovers and Higher Education Financing: An Empirical Analysis of Brain Drain and State-Level Investment in Public Universities
By Chinmany G. Pandit
This paper analyzes the impact of out-migration of college graduates on state higher education investment. A three-stage least squares regression model with state and year fixed effects is developed and estimated, addressing the relationship between state legislative appropriations, tuition, and educated out-migration across 49 U.S. states from 2006-2015. The results support the notion that states respond negatively to benefit spillovers in higher education: for every one percent increase in the rate of educated out-migration, state appropriations decrease by 1.92 percent (roughly $140 per student). These findings suggest that an education subsidy
provided to states may be necessary to prevent underinvestment in higher education.
Advisor: Thomas Nechyba and Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: H7, H75, I22, I28, R23
Early Identification of Students at Risk for High School Dropout
By Derek Lindsey
For years, many have hoped to identify why high school students drop out. Typically, studies focus on factors identified in high school or middle school. By tracking a cohort of North Carolina students from third grade onward, we attempt to identify areas for intervention even earlier in order to prevent dropouts. Indeed, we find that variables that can be viewed as indicators of high risk for drop out in middle school are already measurably present as early as third grade. This suggests interventions can begin when students are still very young and when treatment is likely to be more effective.
Advisor: Thomas Nechyba | JEL Codes: I2, I20 | Tagged: Dropout, Education, Elementary School, Graduation, High School, Middle School
An Assessment of Teach for America Effectiveness and Spillover Effects in North Carolina
By Thomas Burr
Teach for America, while a relatively small cog in the grand scheme of education reform in America, has become something of a flashpoint for debate between the educational establishment and a new generation of reformers. In the first part of this research, I add to a growing number of studies on the effectiveness of TFA teachers by preforming regression analysis of student outcomes in grades 3-5 in North Carolina from 1995-2009 and find that, as measured by end of grade (EOG) math and reading test scores, first-year TFA teachers produce gains that are statistically indistinguishable from experienced teachers and approximately .09 standard deviations higher than other first-year teachers in math and .05 standard deviations higher in reading. In the second part of this research, I build off of Jackson and Bruegmann (2009), who for the first time showed evidence of peer effects between teachers, meaning that the outcomes of your own students can be affected by the quality of the other teachers in your grade. After confirming the results of Jackson/Bruegmann with three additional years of data, I add TFA status as an additional observable characteristic into the equation and find a statistically significant and positive effect to having a peer TFA teacher in your grade across several models.
Advisor: Thomas Nechyba, Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: I2, J24 | Tagged: Education, Peer Effects, Spillover, Teach for America
Tracking Decisions in North Carolina’s Public High Schools
by Michael Harris
Abstract
This paper analyzes the criteria employed to assign students into tracked English and Mathematics classes across public high schools in North Carolina. Specifically, I examine the probability of high track placement moving from eighth grade to ninth grade classrooms based upon both achievement and demographic factors. Analysis is performed at both the school and district level. Although student performance does affect placement at both levels, there are other personal characteristics that are significant factors in determining track assignment. The main finding is that being black has a positive effect on high track placement at the district level, but a negative effect at the school level. The former appears to be linked to residential segregation, while the latter suggests a within-school bias that has important policy implications.
Professor Thomas Nechyba, Faculty Advisor
PUBLIC EDUCATION IN PUERTO RICO: DOES CLASS SIZE MATTER?
by Eddy V. Leal
Abstract
Even though there is a large literature concerning the effects of class size on
educational achievement, no previous research has formally examined the class size
reduction policy in Puerto Rico. The evidence in this paper suggests that class size does
not have a causal effect on student achievement in Puerto Rico. As a result, this paper
points to a failure of the policy that Puerto Rico’s government has invested heavily in for
the last few decades in order to improve the quality of public education. Policy makers in
Puerto Rico should seek alternatives in order to improve the quality of public education
and consider innovations such as incentive based reforms now prevalent in the United
States.
Professor Thomas Nechyba, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: O54,
