Economic Perception and Cable News: Evidence from Panel Data, 2016–2020
by Audrey S. Wang
Abstract
This paper employs a panel approach to investigate the role of partisan cable news in shaping economic perceptions using the VOTER Survey dataset (2016–2020) and sentiment-scored transcripts from Fox News, CNN and MSNBC, examining how sentiment and coverage intensity interact with individuals’ viewership patterns to affect macroeconomic assessments. Findings suggest changes in exposure to cable news affects viewers’ economic perceptions, with effects varying by network, viewership patterns, time horizon and primetime exposure. Fox News exhibits particularly polarizing influence, with positive shifts in exposure improving economic outlooks among its viewers while worsening perceptions among non-viewers. Effects are moderated when individuals do not exclusively watch Fox News, suggesting a countervailing effect to watching multiple, ideologically diverse channels. Strikingly, non-primetime exposure to Fox’s coverage is more consistently associated with shifts in sentiment than primetime exposure, even among non-viewers — indicating that lower-profile programming may diffuse more broadly into the ambient media environment. In contrast, CNN’s economic coverage shows limited or short-lived influence, and MSNBC’s effects are more time-sensitive and contingent on viewership. These findings underscore the persistent influence of cable news in shaping public economic perceptions and suggest that media effects are not uniform across formats or audiences.
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
Professor Bocar Ba, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: L8, L82
Keywords: Cable news; Consumer sentiment; Sentiment analysis
Elder Financial Fraud: The Economic and Ethical Case for Instituting Mandatory Reporting Laws in Financial Institutions
by Lauren Tse
Abstract
This study examines the effectiveness of the 2016 NASAA Model Act, specifically if states that implemented its provisions see greater levels of elder fraud reporting. This legal reform introduces reporting requirements for broker-dealers and investment advisers to report suspected elder fraud to government authorities, granting explicit immunity to those who comply. To analyze both the immediate and longer-term effects of the Model Act’s staggered passage across states, I use a dynamic Difference-in-Difference model to analyze institutionally reported elder fraud cases from the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. Regression findings suggest that the Model Act has a positive enabling effect, increasing the number of elder fraud reports filed by financial professionals. Further, I quantify the monetary losses associated with these fraud cases using self-reported data from the Federal Trade Commission’s Consumer Sentinel Network. In line with this ‘placebo’ dataset, I find that the passage of the Model Act — targeted at financial professionals — has inconclusive impacts on the number of self-reported elder fraud and no effect on the financial losses incurred.
Professor Kate Bundorf, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: G28; K42; J14
Keywords: Elder Financial Fraud; NASAA Model Act; Mandatory Reporting Requirements
In the Shadow of War: Assessing Conflict-Driven Disruptions in the Kyrgyzstan-Russia Labor Pipeline via a Gradient Boosting Approach to Nowcasting
by Michelle K. Schultze
Abstract
Kyrgyzstan, where remittances made up 30% of GDP before the Russo-Ukraine war, is central to understanding Russia–Central Asia labor migration. Wartime trends, however, are obscured by informality and limited Russian data. This study introduces a novel “nowcasting” method using XGBoost and Yandex Wordstat, a Russian search query database largely overlooked in English-language research. Results show a push effect linked to war intensity, alongside a labor substitution effect: Kyrgyz migrants increasingly fill roles vacated by Russian conscripts. This shift primarily affects blue-collar and informal travelers, with remittance flows responding after a two-month lag.
Professor Charles M. Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: F24; J6; R23
Keywords: Immigrant Workers; Remittances; Regional Labor Markets
View Thesis
View Datasets: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Email for access to Inflow, outflow, and Netflow sets.
Reel Representation: The Economic Impact of Gender on Bollywood Box Office Revenue
by Sidharth Ravi
Abstract
The Hindi Film Industry, known as Bollywood, is seen as a gatekeeper of Indian culture.
Annually thousands of films are produced, half a million workers across India are
employed and millions in revenue is created. Although Bollywood has ensured increased
employment and wage opportunities for women on and off screen, the overall
representation of women remains severely low. Little is known about their impact on
Bollywood’s film revenue. This study uses a novel dataset to estimate the impact of
female representation on Bollywood revenue from 2009-2019. We apply a traditional
linear regression and use a ratio of female to male characters in a film’s cast as a proxy
for female representation. Results indicate there is not a significant relationship between
an increased female cast composition on box office performance. To check for the diverse
impact of star power, I analyzed the gender makeup of the movie star in a film, finding
this to have a significant impact on box office revenue. In addition, there is a significant
effect of production budgets and genre on box office performance.
Professor Genna Miller, Faculty Advisor
Professor Grace Kim, Seminar Advisor
JEL Codes: L820, F63, J16, Z11
Keywords: Film Economics, Bollywood, Gender, Female Representation
Externalities of Overhead Power Lines on Residential Housing Values
by Jake Park-Walters
Abstract
Overhead electricity transmission lines (OHLs) create negative externalities on nearby housing values largely from perceived factors including aesthetics, safety, and health. Studies have been performed outside of the US to determine the specific value impact of power lines by proximity. It is not, however, well researched within the United States–specifically in suburban and urban areas. To assess the value loss from overhead power lines, this study examines housing transactions in North Carolina from 1997 to 2020 with a particular emphasis upon cities and townships. With GIS software, proximity variables are calculated such that a difference-indifference regression can estimate the impact of distance to OHL on transaction values. This is important for local policy regarding whether municipalities may want to invest into burying power lines as a means of improving local property values. The results attempt to illustrate how burying high impact lines (HILs) can generate high public benefit relative to cost through marginal value of public funds (MVPF) calculations. These HILs may be chosen based on a variety of factors including proximity to dense, high value housing to maximize value improvement by burial.
Professor David Berger, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: L94, H76, D04
Keywords: Electric Utilities, Policy Evaluation, Local Government Expenditure
Email for Access to Data
Evaluating Emissions Reductions through the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative: A State and Plant-Level Analysis
by Nicholas Vassilios Papavassiliou
Abstract
In this study, I examine the impact of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) on emission reductions in the electricity sector, focusing on three critical dimensions. First, I analyze temporal trends in emissions reductions to evaluate whether previously demonstrated progress has slowed as states exhaust low-cost mitigation pathways. Second, I assess regional impacts within electricity grid management areas, particularly the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland Interconnection Regional Transmission Organization (PJM ISO) where participating and non participating states coexist, including investigating emissions leakage where reductions in RGGI states are offset by increases in neighboring non-RGGI states. Third, I extend the analysis to other greenhouse gases and co-pollutants. Employing difference indifferences and synthetic control methods, the findings show that the RGGI has a significant on the intensive margin, significantly reducing operating hours and heat input across all types of power plants. Alongside these reductions, RGGI spurs net facility exits and promotes fuel switching toward lower-carbon sources. As a result, both pollutant intensity and aggregate emissions decline over time, underscoring the program’s effectiveness. Examining these shifts in the context of regional electricity grids indicates that comprehensive coverage across interconnected markets can minimize leakage and better achieve environmental objectives, offering insights for the design of future regional climate policies.
Professor Jeffrey DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: Q41, Q48, Q52, Q58
Keywords: Cap-and-Trade, Emissions Leakage, Environmental Policy, Regional Greenhouse
Gas Initiative
Email for Access to Data
Medicaid Managed Care and Emergency Department Utilization: A North Carolina Analysis
by Temitope Ayokunmi Ojo
Abstract
In July 2021, North Carolina Medicaid switched from a traditional fee-for-service model to a Medicaid managed care (MMC) network. This thesis explores the effect of this policy change on Emergency Department (ED) utilization for Medicaid beneficiaries in North Carolina. A linear difference-in-difference model was used to estimate the change in ED visits between the treatment group, Medicaid beneficiaries, and two control groups, non-Medicaid 19–64-year-olds and 65+ NC residents. The results indicate a statistically significant decline in ED visits, about 11% decline from pre-policy visit rates, for Medicaid beneficiaries after the mandatory switch to managed care. The reduction in visits was most persistent for those related to chronic condition treatment. Furthermore, we find evidence consistent with both medical care disruption and better management of health as drivers of the decline in ED visits. Determining the cause of these patterns should be explored by deeper analyses of trends in other healthcare delivery avenues (i.e. PCP appointments or hospital admissions) post-policy implementation.
Professor M. Kate Bundorf, Faculty Advisor
Professor Grace Kim, Seminar Advisor
JEL Codes: I11, I13, I18
Keywords: Medicaid, Insurance, Emergency Department
The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility in OECD Countries
by Timothy Lloyd O’Brien
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of family policies in addressing declining fertility rates across OECD countries between 1990 and 2019. Over the past six decades, fertility rates in these nations have dropped substantially, with most falling below replacement level. This study evaluates the influence of three core policy instruments: cash benefits, parental leave entitlements, and early childcare provisions. Using a fixed-effects panel model, this research accounts for country-specific characteristics and includes controls for various economic and social conditions. Leveraging recent data from persistently low fertility periods, the analysis incorporates previously underutilized variables such as contraception accessibility and disaggregates results by both regional and demographic contexts. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in policy effectiveness. Cash transfers and early childcare expenditures exhibit consistent positive associations with fertility, particularly in Europe and the Americas. Paid maternal leave shows a positive effect primarily in low-fertility countries and European settings, while its impact is less robust elsewhere. Conversely, economic conditions, especially unemployment, emerge as strong and consistently negative predictors of fertility across all regions and fertility levels. These results underscore the importance of early, context-sensitive, and multidimensional policy interventions in shaping fertility outcomes.
Peter Arcidiacono, Faculty Advisor
Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: J13, J16, J17
Keywords: Fertility; Family Policy: Parenthood
Who Gets Wind? Investigating Economic Attributes of Iowa Counties Prior to Wind Turbine Development
by Karianna Klassen
Abstract
Iowa is a national leader in wind energy, producing nearly two-thirds of its electricity from wind turbines. However, the development of wind energy infrastructure across the state has been uneven—some counties host hundreds of turbines while others have none. This paper investigates whether county-level economic conditions influence the likelihood of wind turbine development. Using panel data from 1990 to 2023 and a two-way fixed effects regression framework, I examine the relationship between wind energy development and three economic indicators: farm income per capita, non-farm income per capita, and unemployment rate. I control for political affiliation, farming success, prior turbine presence, land availability, and demographic variables. Contrary to existing qualitative literature that suggests economic need drives local acceptance of wind projects, my analysis finds that these economic indicators are not statistically significant predictors of turbine development. One exception is political affiliation, which in some regressions indicates that a higher share of Democratic votes is associated with a lower probability of turbine development—contradicting national-level trends linking Democratic support with renewable energy expansion. All models have low between-county explanatory power (R² < 0.05), suggesting that factors not captured in county-level economic data—such as individual landowner decisions, developer strategies, or transmission infrastructure—may better explain wind energy siting patterns. These findings call for deeper investigation into localized, non-economic factors that shape renewable energy development, particularly as the push toward decarbonization accelerates.
Professor Jeffrey DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: O13, R11, Q42,
Keywords: Wind Energy, Renewable Development, Agriculture
