In the Shadow of War: Assessing Conflict-Driven Disruptions in the Kyrgyzstan-Russia Labor Pipeline via a Gradient Boosting Approach to Nowcasting
by Michelle K. Schultze
Abstract
Kyrgyzstan, where remittances made up 30% of GDP before the Russo-Ukraine war, is central to understanding Russia–Central Asia labor migration. Wartime trends, however, are obscured by informality and limited Russian data. This study introduces a novel “nowcasting” method using XGBoost and Yandex Wordstat, a Russian search query database largely overlooked in English-language research. Results show a push effect linked to war intensity, alongside a labor substitution effect: Kyrgyz migrants increasingly fill roles vacated by Russian conscripts. This shift primarily affects blue-collar and informal travelers, with remittance flows responding after a two-month lag.
Professor Charles M. Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: F24; J6; R23
Keywords: Immigrant Workers; Remittances; Regional Labor Markets
View Thesis
View Datasets: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Email for access to Inflow, outflow, and Netflow sets.
Who Gets Wind? Investigating Economic Attributes of Iowa Counties Prior to Wind Turbine Development
by Karianna Klassen
Abstract
Iowa is a national leader in wind energy, producing nearly two-thirds of its electricity from wind turbines. However, the development of wind energy infrastructure across the state has been uneven—some counties host hundreds of turbines while others have none. This paper investigates whether county-level economic conditions influence the likelihood of wind turbine development. Using panel data from 1990 to 2023 and a two-way fixed effects regression framework, I examine the relationship between wind energy development and three economic indicators: farm income per capita, non-farm income per capita, and unemployment rate. I control for political affiliation, farming success, prior turbine presence, land availability, and demographic variables. Contrary to existing qualitative literature that suggests economic need drives local acceptance of wind projects, my analysis finds that these economic indicators are not statistically significant predictors of turbine development. One exception is political affiliation, which in some regressions indicates that a higher share of Democratic votes is associated with a lower probability of turbine development—contradicting national-level trends linking Democratic support with renewable energy expansion. All models have low between-county explanatory power (R² < 0.05), suggesting that factors not captured in county-level economic data—such as individual landowner decisions, developer strategies, or transmission infrastructure—may better explain wind energy siting patterns. These findings call for deeper investigation into localized, non-economic factors that shape renewable energy development, particularly as the push toward decarbonization accelerates.
Professor Jeffrey DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: O13, R11, Q42,
Keywords: Wind Energy, Renewable Development, Agriculture
Directing Development: Do One-Way Roads Inhibit Downtown Development? A Case Study of Hickory, North Carolina
by Adeleine Geitner
Abstract
In cities across the United States, residents and policymakers have passed measures to increase accessibility and walkability as a strategy for revitalizing disinvested downtowns. Alongside many of these measures, one-way roads have been reverted to two-way traffic due to their observed hindrance on walkability and pedestrian safety. In Hickory, North Carolina, planners perceive the land along the city’s downtown one-ways as less viable for development due to the speed and load of the traffic that they carry. This study observes the impact of one-way roads on the efficacy of a downtown pedestrian infrastructure plan that the city passed in 2014, aimed at increasing investment and development in the city’s downtown. It uses a difference-in-differences approach to measure how the indirect effects of this investment package are felt on one-way road properties relative to two-way road properties within the central business district.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R12; R58
Keywords: one-way streets; downtown redevelopment; property value appreciation; vacant land reclamation
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The Impact of Land Use Restriction on Housing Supply and Urban Form
by Brendan Patrick Elliott
Abstract
Rising home prices have led to public concern regarding housing affordability and availability. Interest in the role that land use regulations may play in reducing housing availability has been of increasing interest. While many of these regulations were initially implemented to preserve neighborhood character and promote sustainable growth, many contend that these regulations have the unintentional consequence of restricting supply and raising housing costs. Previous literature typically studies the impacts of land use regulation in individual cities or metropolitan areas, but questions remain whether these results can generalize to other cities across the country. Utilizing a two-time period panel dataset on city-level regulations across the nation, I assess whether minimum lot size, project approval delays, and impact fees cause a reduction in housing availability across cities. In most cases, increased levels of these regulations reduce housing availability in jurisdictions of medium to high population density whereas results are insignificant for jurisdictions of low population density.
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R14; R31; R38
Keywords: Land Use, Zoning, Housing Supply
The Impact of Quiet Zone Implementation on Accident Incidence at Highway-rail Grade Crossings
by Jack Duhon
Abstract
In the last five years, (2019-2023) there have been 10,704 accidents
at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs) in the United States, resulting
in 3,859 injuries and 1,233 fatalities. This paper seeks to address impact
of quiet zones, where trains are not allowed to blow their horns before
going through a crossing, on HRGC safety in the United States. Using
a two-way fixed effects model, we find evidence of quiet zones increasing
accident incidence and accident severity, in some instances at a level far
higher than believed by the Federal Railroad Administration.
Professor Jeff DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: L92; L98; R41
Keywords: Accident, Railroad, Quiet Zone
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Airline Non-Price Competition Between FSC and LCC Carriers: Varying Airline Optimization Strategies
by Lucas Johnson
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to extend the discourse surrounding certain topics in terms of airline
optimization which is defined in this paper as the ability of an airline to efficiently transport
goods and passengers as well as accrue revenue from its airplanes relative to its total capacity to
transport goods and accrue revenue. Previous literature deals heavily with the differences
between LCC and FSC carriers as well as the importance of both customer satisfaction and
operational efficiency for the ability of an airline to compete. The analysis of this paper is in the
form of a panel-regression performed on a dataset obtained from the T1 Airline Summary
Statistics form maintained by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. This data demonstrates the
relationship between dependent variables represented by certain metrics of airline success,
revenue passengers enplaned, revenue passenger miles and revenue ton miles, with independent
variables that reflect optimization in terms of both payload and passenger transport. These
variables are influenced by factors such as certain measures of timeliness competition defined in
this analysis as ramp inefficiency and departure efficiency.
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: L93; D22; R4; L13
The Effect of Algae Blooms on Property Values located on Florida’s Indian River Lagoon
by Cameron DeChurch
Abstract
Florida’s Indian River Lagoon has algae blooms that devastate ecosystems, water quality,
and markets for seafood, recreation, and housing. This study estimates part of their economic
impact by examining water quality’s relationship with prices of properties sold near the estuary
from 2007 to 2016. Using water quality scores from 0 to 100, my regression analysis estimates
that one-unit increases in water quality are associated with one-percent increases in sale price.
Upon summing this relationship over all properties in the sample, my paper estimates that these
algae blooms have cost the housing market between $756 million to $3.6 billion.
Professor Christopher D. Timmins, Faculty Advisor
Professor Kent P. Kimbrough, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: Q5, Q51, R21
Impact of Utility-Scale Solar Farms on Property Values in North Carolina
By Megan Wang
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to investigate impacts of utility-scale solar farms on surrounding property values. Using data from CoreLogic, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the US Census Bureau, this study identifies a 12% statistically significant increase in sale values associated with high-income residential homes within three miles of a solar farm. However, low-income homes built near solar farms are associated with a -1.4% decrease in sale values.
As North Carolina continues to expand solar energy, specifically through photovoltaic utilities, understanding the impact of solar development on surrounding communities should be a priority and policies should aim to prevent property devaluations in low-income neighborhoods caused by solar farms.
Professor Christopher Timmins, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: Q42, R11
Subprime’s Long shadow: Understanding subprime lending’s role in the St. Louis vacancy crisis
by Glen David Morgenstern
Abstract
Using loan-level data, this analysis attempts to connect the events of the subprime home loan boom to the current vacancy crisis in St. Louis, Missouri. Borrowers in Black areas in the north of St. Louis City and St. Louis County received subprime home loans at higher rates during the subprime boom period of 2003-2007 than those in White areas, with differences in balloon loans especially stark. Specifically, borrowers in Black neighborhoods received subprime loans more frequently than those with equal FICO scores in White neighborhoods. As a result of these differential loan terms, North City and inner ring “First Suburb” areas saw more foreclosure and
borrower payment delinquency, which in turn were highly associated with home vacancy, controlling for other risk factors. However, foreclosure was no longer a significant predictor of home vacancy
after controlling for demographic factors and FICO score, indicating that the unequal loan terms may have driven much of the increase in home vacancy in the St. Louis area since the Great Recession.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R1; R3; R11; R31; J1; J15
Is Affordable Housing Moving Mobile? Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 on Demand for Manufactured Housing
by Jair Coleridge Soman Alleyne
Abstract
As demand for affordable housing continues to increase in America, manufactured homes provide a private solution to this problem. Research has shown that manufactured home prices are largely dependent on the price of local housing substitutes as well as other geographic hedonic factors. This paper looks at the impact of Covid-19 on the manufactured housing market to determine the effects that economic shocks have on the demand for manufactured housing. Conditional on wanting to buy a house, we use a logistic model to examine the probability that an individual purchases a manufactured home and whether this probability increases at times of high unemployment and economic uncertainty. Due to the nature of our data, although the impact of Covid as a disease is difficult to measure, we do find decreased income and increased unemployment to be a factor increasing the likelihood of purchasing a manufactured home. We also find that in 2020, demand for manufactured housing increased significantly compared to the years prior.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R2, R21, I32
