Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction in North American Construction Industry
By Gang Li This paper seeks to explore the application of Altman’s bankruptcy prediction model in the construction industry by measuring its percentage accuracy on a dataset consisting of 108 bankrupt & non-bankrupt firms selected across the timeline of 1985-2013. Another main goal this paper is to explore the predictive power of an expanded variable […]
Forecasting Beta Using Conditional Heteroskedastic Models
By Andrew Bentley Conventional measurements of equity return volatility rely on the asset’s previous day closing price to infer the current level of volatility and fail to incorporate information concerning intraday influntuctuations. Realized measures of volatility, such as the realized variance, are able to integrate intraday information by utilizing high-frequency data to form a very […]
Identifying Supply and Demand Elasticities of Iron Ore
By Zhirui Zhu This paper utilizes instrumental variables and joint estimation to construct efficiently identified estimates of supply and demand equations for the world iron ore market under the assumption of perfect competition. With annual data spanning 1960-2010, I found an upward sloping supply curve and a downward sloping demand curve. Both of the supply […]
Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Sector Allocation in International Equity Markets
By Melanie Fan and Kate Yuan Reliable estimates of volatility and correlation are crucial in asset allocation and risk management. This paper investigates Static, RiskMetrics, and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models for estimating volatility and correlation by testing them in an asset allocation context. Optimal allocation weights for one year found using estimates from each […]
Multi-Variable Regression Analysis For the Prediction of Equity Returns Over 10 Year Periods
by Arjun Singh Jaswal Abstract The use of 5 variables is examined in order to forecast ex ante the total return from holding equities over 10 year periods. The 5 variables are a moving average of Campbell and Shiller’s P/E ratio, Robert B. Barsky and J. Bradford De Long’s log price predictor, a function of […]
