Author: Ben Joseph

For the first day and a half at the COP, I was starstruck. I saw John Kerry, Gina McCarthy, and Bill Gates among a slew of climate heroes in the blue zone. I was euphoric just being in their presence. Then, a few reactions to my obligatory LinkedIn post with a selfie in front of the COP-26 logo brought me down to earth.

One commenter asked if I really thought the UNFCCC would create meaningful progress or if it was just a forum for political posturing. Another connection of mine linked a hilarious satirical article about climate activists humble bragging on LinkedIn about flying across the globe in the name of reducing carbon emissions. That one hit close to home. I began to try to sort out the substance from all the fluff. The work horses from the show ponies.

On one hand, I saw more of the flaws in the system. While it was cool to see John Kerry, he didn’t really say much beyond reiterating the obvious urgency of climate action. Gina McCarthy touted what the US would do with Biden’s Build Back Better Bill which has repeatedly failed to pass through congress. Brazil’s pavilion espoused to be a global leader in forest conservation. A whole load of fluff.

On the other hand, some of the more substantive information sessions painted a picture of a global economy that is actively accelerating the transition towards a decarbonized future. There were sessions on programs and projects to build capacity and share lessons learned from developed nations that have already encountered major hurdles related to decarbonization before developing nations encounter the same issues. There were programs within nations to collaborate across all levels of government to take a holistic approach combatting climate change. Programs where private industry, development banks, and governments are working to magnify impact of climate finance in developing nations. Programs to commercialize the next technology to unlock the ability to abate emissions where previously infeasible.

For all the fluff that gets reported on, there is a lot of real action happening beneath the surface. That doesn’t mean that it all amounts to the promises made by heads of state though. And even if we could fulfill promises, the aggregate of all countries’ NDCs still does not amount to hitting the target of limiting global warming to 1.5-2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

The outlook may be bleak, but all the tangible work I saw outside of the marquee events at the COP left me with some degree of optimism. Here is what I posted in response to the LinkedIn comment about political posturing:

I would like to think that even when all the grandiose talk of collaborative action at the COP doesn’t lead to 100% follow through, the fraction it does achieve would have made the whole process well worth it. I also think that the messaging that occurs at the global level is powerful. It can at the very least guide the real change-makers on the ground who look to fill in the gaps where the global leaders fall short.

I am somewhat in disbelief that I am on an airplane right now headed to Glasgow for COP-26. All semester long, I have been expecting the UNFCCC or the UK government to cancel in-person events or Duke to revoke our travel approval. And yet here I am. It is my first time traveling abroad since the beginning of COVID. My first time wearing dress shoes after a year and a half of pairing my blazer with slippers. My first time attending the event that sets the agenda for climate action across the globe. I am shocked, excited, and honored.

Throughout the semester, we have learned about the evolution of UNFCCC climate agreements over their roughly 30-year history. Over time, negotiations have matured to the point where countries today are focused on implementing programs to make meaningful progress to fight the worst impacts of climate change. The central topics include:

1. Reviewing whether countries’ emissions reduction targets (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) comply with rules established in the Paris Agreement and are sufficient in aggregate to stave off a global warming effect of 2 degrees Celsius;
2. Finalizing rules to open carbon markets per Article 6 of the Paris Agreement; and
3. Ensuring developed countries meet targets for funding capacity building for climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries

Each of these topics is critically important but fraught with drama. Eight countries have already violated the Paris Agreement’s rules for announcing NDCs. Five have either failed to progress the aggressiveness of their NDC or even reduced their commitment and three missed the deadline to update their NDC. Brazil and a few allies have taken negotiations hostage by vehemently opposing Article 6 rules upon which parties have otherwise reached consensus. Developed countries have fallen pitifully short of their goals for funding mitigation and adaptation in the global south. France has taken climate finance shortcuts by providing loans rather than grants. It will be fascinating to see how these issues unfold on the floor of the COP

I am personally feeling a bizarre mixture of optimism and skepticism. On one hand, global leaders are finally recognizing that a changing climate poses extreme environmental, social, and economic threats. And they’re pledging to do something about it. Political momentum is coinciding with technological momentum and signs of the economic viability of decarbonizing the global economy. On the other hand, we are seeing that real progress is a lot harder than political promises and climate modeling. For example, President Biden will be attending the COP on the heels of an embarrassing defeat of his Clean Energy Performance Plan at the hands of a member of his own political party.

Even if it has its flaws, the Paris Agreement’s symbolism is powerful. In my experience following energy and climate policy, I have seen how climate ambition and emissions reduction strategies begin at the UN and proliferate in a myriad of iterations across the world. From an IPCC report catalyzing state governments and utilities adopting net zero by 2050 targets to the emergence of regional carbon markets after the UNFCCC began building the framework for Article 6.

I can’t wait to get on the ground, observe negotiations, and learn from experts from around the world. When I graduate and become a climate leader in my own right, I will be able to draw on my COP experience. I will be able to work on clean energy transition policy and programs that feed into the global collective effort to build a climate resilient society. I cannot overstate what a privilege it is to be going to COP-26.