At COP28, my focus centers on tracking developments within the Just Energy Transition and collaborating with the IDB team that is leading social protection systems. Relevant organizations covering this topic are the International Labor Organization, CEPAL and CAF, and YOUNGO. In this blog I will do a brief description of my research on this topic and the outlook in this area for COP28.
Firstly, the concept of a just transition traces its roots back to 19th-century debates initiated by Northern American Unions, aiming to mitigate the potential adverse effects of environmental policies on workers in high-risk industries. Subsequently, in the 1990s and 2000s, international trade unions embraced the term within the climate discourse, emphasizing the necessity to address employment issues. Within the UNFCCC, the just transition primarily revolves around tackling employment concerns within decarbonization policies, with a focus on supporting workers who might lose their jobs. However, diverse perspectives exist, with developing countries employing the concept to advocate for time and support for their developmental goals.
In my monitoring of this topic, I aim to trace financial commitments mobilizing investments for low-carbon development strategies. According to the IEA, clean energy investment in Developing Economies has averaged under USD 150 billion in recent years; this would need to rise by a factor of 4 by 2030 in the Sustainable Development Scenario, and by more than 7 times in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Currently, one important avenue channeling capital for low-carbon investments are the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs). A high-profile financing mechanism designed to funnel money from developed to developing countries to support energy transitions. So far, this mechanism has been announced for South Africa (with an 8.5 billion USD initiative), Indonesia (a 20 billion USD initiative), Vietnam (a 15.5 billion USD initiative), and Senegal. Additionally, the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) serves as another source of financial support. In 2022, the investment on this account was around 70 billion USD, with a 34% flowing to Asian BRI countries, and the rest among Latin American countries, Africa and eastern Europe.
For COP28, I will be observing specific financial pledges in this area, understanding how developing countries leverage the just transition concept for finance or other objectives, exploring private sector engagement in these transitions, and following the overall relevance of this topic throughout the negotiations. Furthermore, my focus extends to exploring cross-cutting topics, including aspects such as education for the green transition and incentives for technology development abroad.
Finally, I will be following the negotiation positions held by countries in Latin America. Colombia, in particular, stands out due to the commitment demonstrated by its elected president towards climate change and social protection policies. Notably, this commitment includes the immediate cessation of oil and gas exploration and the withholding of new contracts for oil and gas production. I am keen to observe how this position contributes to the region’s efforts in achieving its financial goals linked to climate change negotiations. Moreover, with the recent election of a new president in Brazil and the upcoming responsibility of hosting COP in two years, I anticipate the Latin American region to play a prominent and influential role in the discussions at COP28.
