Author: Paula Sarmiento

Regarding the differentiated phase-out of fossil fuels, Colombia emerged prominently as an example of a developing nation committed to combating climate change. The Colombian president pledged to cease the exploration of fossil fuels and the assignment of new contracts for extraction—a stark contrast to the COP Presidency’s decision to continue investing in oil, or Brazil’s choice to join OPEC+, a coalition influencing crude oil market prices. Given that oil and coal exports account for more than half of Colombia’s total exports, why is Colombia adopting more aggressive decarbonization measures than wealthier nations? While the president’s announcement at COP28 garnered applauses in the conference, it has stirred discontent among Colombian citizens. Surveys indicate that 59% of Colombians disapprove of ending oil exploration contracts, and 65% favored multinational companies and foreign investment.

Is this an irrational behavior of the Colombian President? Following declarations at COP28 gave me some nuances about this question. On one hand, the government strategically utilized this stance to spearhead discussions on global financial system reforms. The Environmental Ministry advocated for access to capital for green transitions and a new economic deal. On this direction, the governments of France, Colombia, and Kenya announced the Global Expert Review on Debt, Nature, and Climate, with the purpose of experts to understand how debt impedes climate action and decarbonization efforts. Moreover, during COP28, the President announced an investment portfolio presenting opportunities exceeding 32 billion USD. This portfolio encompasses initiatives such as nature swaps, investments in ecotourism, and the development of green energies, among other strategic ventures. This initiative presented clear options for leveraging finance within the country.

On the other hand, while these financial plans appear plausible in the medium run, the abrupt interruption of fossil fuels poses a considerable risk. Given other countries’ decisions and the global context, such a move may not significantly impact worldwide emissions. There is a prevailing consensus that less-resourced countries have time for a gradual transition, allowing for economic planning of transitions without jeopardizing their developmental trajectories.

Hence, although the Colombian government earned recognition as a climate leader among developing nations, the economic and financial plan for a transition is still in its infancy, echoing the Ministry’s acknowledgment: “we cannot drop a cord without clinging to the next cord.” The journey of how Colombia, alongside other developing countries, navigates this transition path is yet to be seen.

Finally, it is noteworthy to mention than Colombia alongside Brazil announced new financing deals to protect the Amazon Rainforest.

At COP28, both Lula and Colombian President Gustavo Petro have agreed on zero deforestation by 2030,

Brazil proposed the Tropical Forest Forever mechanism, aiming to raise 250 billion USD to safeguard the Amazon Rainforest. Notable pledges during the conference included Norway’s commitment of 50 million USD for the protection of the Brazilian Amazon and a joint commitment from the UK and Norway amounting to 29 million USD for the conservation of the Colombian Amazon. While these contributions represent significant investments, they fall considerably short of the financial requirements estimated by Brazil for ensuring a thriving Amazon.

My experience at COP28 compelled me to reconsider key aspects of the global climate discourse. In this reflection, I delve into three key areas that significantly impacted my viewpoint.
1. Equitable Green Transition: Civil organizations presented compelling research outlining the path to achieving an equitable green transition. The data emphasized that wealthier nations, including Canada, the USA, Australia, and Norway, should aim to reduce fossil fuel production by 80% by 2030, while developing countries should target a 10% reduction. Moreover, the estimated $100 billion required for financing energy transitions is the amount of money spent by the US in five days of fossil fuels subsidies. This data underscores the feasibility of developed countries providing financial support for green transitions in less affluent nations. Researchers claim than a realistic fossil fuels phase-out is inseparable from provision of support. COP28 saw various financial pledges covering diverse areas, from energy transition to healthcare initiatives, technology investments, and disaster relief. However, the deployment of resources and specific mechanisms remain to be seen.
2. Climate-Security Nexus and Civil Rights Advocacy: The intersection of climate change and security was salient during the conference, as civil society groups strategically applied pressure through a civil rights framework, amplifying the strength of their voices. This connection facilitated collaboration among groups with diverse pledges. Shared experiences and discourses from individuals representing Palestinians, children, climate-vulnerable regions, Indigenous Peoples, farmers, and women’s groups, were profoundly moving. These compelling stories left attendees inspired, fueling a collective desire to use climate policies to contribute to a more just world. Key messages resonated around the need to protest against colonial systems, advocacy for equal access to basic human rights, framing climate change as an equity problem rather than solely a carbon problem, and acknowledging the invaluable knowledge held by local communities.
3. Divergent Paths in Fossil Fuel Phase-Out: The phase-out of fossil fuels was, as expected, a highly debated and contentious topic throughout the negotiations, persisting until the final moments. Various options, including phase-out, phase-down, and omitting any reference to these measures, were discussed exhaustively. The text underwent changes, momentarily disappearing only to reappear in a vague manner. Post-conference, the president’s announcement signaled a stance of not reducing production unless there was a corresponding decrease in demand. In essence, the responsibility for reducing fossil fuel consumption currently rests primarily with major consumers such as the US and China. While this outcome is not surprising, it remains an important challenge that scientist and civil society should keep an eye on. In the Blog Colombia in the COP28 I will discuss more specific positions of developing countries regarding this topic.

Finally, regarding logistics during the conference, the venue was highly dispersed resulting in numerous panels with minimal attendance, and a significant portion of the side events seemed disconnected from the core negotiations. Consequently, meaningful discussions were less likely to contribute valuable insights to the negotiation process, and attendees had fewer opportunities to critically engage with the discussions led by policymakers. However, despite these challenges, there were multiple opportunities to network with various organizations, researchers, public servants from all attending countries, and even negotiators.
In conclusion, this experience provided me with insights into the intricacies of multilateral negotiations, the interplay between domestic and international considerations, the significance of advocacy across various policymaking levels, and, concerning climate change, underscored the considerable distance we still have to cover to align with the scientific recommendations for averting a climate catastrophe.

At COP28, my focus centers on tracking developments within the Just Energy Transition and collaborating with the IDB team that is leading social protection systems. Relevant organizations covering this topic are the International Labor Organization, CEPAL and CAF, and YOUNGO. In this blog I will do a brief description of my research on this topic and the outlook in this area for COP28.

Firstly, the concept of a just transition traces its roots back to 19th-century debates initiated by Northern American Unions, aiming to mitigate the potential adverse effects of environmental policies on workers in high-risk industries. Subsequently, in the 1990s and 2000s, international trade unions embraced the term within the climate discourse, emphasizing the necessity to address employment issues. Within the UNFCCC, the just transition primarily revolves around tackling employment concerns within decarbonization policies, with a focus on supporting workers who might lose their jobs. However, diverse perspectives exist, with developing countries employing the concept to advocate for time and support for their developmental goals.

In my monitoring of this topic, I aim to trace financial commitments mobilizing investments for low-carbon development strategies. According to the IEA, clean energy investment in Developing Economies has averaged under USD 150 billion in recent years; this would need to rise by a factor of 4 by 2030 in the Sustainable Development Scenario, and by more than 7 times in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario. Currently, one important avenue channeling capital for low-carbon investments are the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs). A high-profile financing mechanism designed to funnel money from developed to developing countries to support energy transitions. So far, this mechanism has been announced for South Africa (with an 8.5 billion USD initiative), Indonesia (a 20 billion USD initiative), Vietnam (a 15.5 billion USD initiative), and Senegal. Additionally, the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) serves as another source of financial support. In 2022, the investment on this account was around 70 billion USD, with a 34% flowing to Asian BRI countries, and the rest among Latin American countries, Africa and eastern Europe.

For COP28, I will be observing specific financial pledges in this area, understanding how developing countries leverage the just transition concept for finance or other objectives, exploring private sector engagement in these transitions, and following the overall relevance of this topic throughout the negotiations. Furthermore, my focus extends to exploring cross-cutting topics, including aspects such as education for the green transition and incentives for technology development abroad.

Finally, I will be following the negotiation positions held by countries in Latin America. Colombia, in particular, stands out due to the commitment demonstrated by its elected president towards climate change and social protection policies. Notably, this commitment includes the immediate cessation of oil and gas exploration and the withholding of new contracts for oil and gas production. I am keen to observe how this position contributes to the region’s efforts in achieving its financial goals linked to climate change negotiations. Moreover, with the recent election of a new president in Brazil and the upcoming responsibility of hosting COP in two years, I anticipate the Latin American region to play a prominent and influential role in the discussions at COP28.