In the Shadow of War: Assessing Conflict-Driven Disruptions in the Kyrgyzstan-Russia Labor Pipeline via a Gradient Boosting Approach to Nowcasting
by Michelle K. Schultze
Abstract
Kyrgyzstan, where remittances made up 30% of GDP before the Russo-Ukraine war, is central to understanding Russia–Central Asia labor migration. Wartime trends, however, are obscured by informality and limited Russian data. This study introduces a novel “nowcasting” method using XGBoost and Yandex Wordstat, a Russian search query database largely overlooked in English-language research. Results show a push effect linked to war intensity, alongside a labor substitution effect: Kyrgyz migrants increasingly fill roles vacated by Russian conscripts. This shift primarily affects blue-collar and informal travelers, with remittance flows responding after a two-month lag.
Professor Charles M. Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: F24; J6; R23
Keywords: Immigrant Workers; Remittances; Regional Labor Markets
View Thesis
View Datasets: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Email for access to Inflow, outflow, and Netflow sets.
The Effect of Algae Blooms on Property Values located on Florida’s Indian River Lagoon
by Cameron DeChurch
Abstract
Florida’s Indian River Lagoon has algae blooms that devastate ecosystems, water quality,
and markets for seafood, recreation, and housing. This study estimates part of their economic
impact by examining water quality’s relationship with prices of properties sold near the estuary
from 2007 to 2016. Using water quality scores from 0 to 100, my regression analysis estimates
that one-unit increases in water quality are associated with one-percent increases in sale price.
Upon summing this relationship over all properties in the sample, my paper estimates that these
algae blooms have cost the housing market between $756 million to $3.6 billion.
Professor Christopher D. Timmins, Faculty Advisor
Professor Kent P. Kimbrough, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: Q5, Q51, R21
Is Affordable Housing Moving Mobile? Analyzing the Impact of COVID-19 on Demand for Manufactured Housing
by Jair Coleridge Soman Alleyne
Abstract
As demand for affordable housing continues to increase in America, manufactured homes provide a private solution to this problem. Research has shown that manufactured home prices are largely dependent on the price of local housing substitutes as well as other geographic hedonic factors. This paper looks at the impact of Covid-19 on the manufactured housing market to determine the effects that economic shocks have on the demand for manufactured housing. Conditional on wanting to buy a house, we use a logistic model to examine the probability that an individual purchases a manufactured home and whether this probability increases at times of high unemployment and economic uncertainty. Due to the nature of our data, although the impact of Covid as a disease is difficult to measure, we do find decreased income and increased unemployment to be a factor increasing the likelihood of purchasing a manufactured home. We also find that in 2020, demand for manufactured housing increased significantly compared to the years prior.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R2, R21, I32
Impacts of Housing Interventions on Neighborhoods in Durham County
by Cassandra Turk
Abstract
Housing intervention models intended to revitalize neighborhoods and empower homeowners are frequently observed in cities across the United States. To determine the efficacy of these programs, this study analyzes the effects of a housing intervention on the price of the home and the changes in neighborhood characteristics that may lead to neighborhood stability or instability in the long run, including the home prices, the racial makeup, the median income, and crime rates of the neighborhood. To study these characteristics and how they interact with interventions, I implement a propensity score matching model to reduce variation in unobservable characteristics and to isolate the effect of interventions on the block group characteristics of interest. In addition, I implement a non-parametric kernel regression to allow for the possibility of a non-linear relationship between home prices and home interventions. The results show significant evidence that interventions increase neighborhood home values at the bottom 10th percentile and at the median of each block group, suggesting that housing interventions do serve to increase the quality of the neighborhood. However, there is evidence that these effects taper off after a certain percent of the households in the neighborhood have been intervened upon, reducing the marginal benefit of completing a new housing intervention.
Professor Christopher Timmins, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: R2, R23, J10
Where You Live and Where You Move: A Cross-City Comparison of the Effects of Gentrification and How these Effects Are Tied to Racial History
By Divya Juneja
This thesis compares the effects of gentrification on school and air quality in ten cities to see whether cities with larger amounts of white flight post-World War II exhibited worse gentrification effects on renters. I find that renters in high white flight cities more consistently experience school quality downgrades—likely attributed to moving from gentrifying neighborhoods to worse neighborhoods. High white flight meant widespread de-investment across neighborhoods which could have lowered the school quality experienced by displaced renters. Gentrification did not consistently affect air quality in any way related to white flight, meaning confounding variables could have influence.
Advisors: Professor Christopher Timmins, Professor Alison Hagy | JEL Codes: R2, R3, J11
An Unequal Dream: The Mortgage Rate Premium Paid by Black Communities
By Michael Nicholson
This paper analyzes loan pricing discrimination against predominantly black communities in U.S. mortgage markets. Building on previous literature, this paper posits that ceteris paribus predominantly black communities continue to face economically significant discrimination in mortgage pricing. Ultimately, this paper concludes that predominantly black communities face 10-14 basis points of pricing discrimination in mortgage loans which corresponds to 12.6-17.6% higher rate spreads. This estimation comes after accounting for geographic and lender effects, borrower quality, tract-level characteristics, and loan type. These results confirm past findings of pricing discrimination and illustrate yet another financial barrier for black households in this country.
Advisors: Professor Emma Rasiel, Professor Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: R2, J15, G21
Do Evictions Cause Income Changes? An Instrumental Variables Approach
By Grace Mok
Evictions are an important aspect of the affordable housing crisis facing low-income American renters. However, there has been little research quantifying the causal impact of evictions, which poses challenges for academics interested in understanding inequality and policy-makers interested in reducing it. Merging two datasets both new to the literature, I address this gap in the causal literature by using an instrumental variables strategy to examine the impact of evictions on household income over time in Durham, North Carolina. Exploiting gentrification-related evictions as an instrument, I find a 2.5% decrease in household income after eviction. This is a small, but significant decrease in income given that median household income for households at time of eviction is about $15,000.
Advisors: Professor Christopher Timmins, Professor Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: I32, R29
Is Inclusionary Zoning a Proper Remedy for the Affordable Housing Crisis? —A Case Study of IZ Programs in New Jersey and North Carolina
By Xinchen Li
The recent decade witnessed a worsening of the affordable housing crisis across the
country. Inclusionary zoning (IZ) has been a popular municipal remedy for the crisis.
However, it is unclear whether IZ actually adds to the affordable housing stock, and
whether it achieves its goal at the expense of average homeowners. Through a case
study of New Jersey and North Carolina, this paper aims to address these two questions.The results suggest that there is no statistically significant positive relationship between the presence of IZ and the housing price in the two states, but its beneficiary effects are also debatable.
Advisors: Professor Christopher Timmins | JEL Codes: D10 ; R2; R21
Durham and Gentrification: Assessing the Impact of Displacement in the Bull City
By Armin Hakimzadeh Ameri
In this paper, I look to Durham, North Carolina, to demonstrate potential harms from gentrification. Using an expansive proprietary dataset, I come to two main conclusions: first, there is a significant link between gentrification and displacement, as low-income renters are constrained by increased prices and are forced to leave their neighborhoods. Second, displaced renters are significantly more likely to move into communities with higher crime rates, worse schools, and increased rates of poverty. These results suggest that the Durham government should enact policies protecting low-income renters and other at-risk groups while also balancing the benefits of gentrification.
Advisors: Professor Christopher Timmins, and Professor Grace Kim | JEL Codes: R2, R3
Benefit Spillovers and Higher Education Financing: An Empirical Analysis of Brain Drain and State-Level Investment in Public Universities
By Chinmany G. Pandit
This paper analyzes the impact of out-migration of college graduates on state higher education investment. A three-stage least squares regression model with state and year fixed effects is developed and estimated, addressing the relationship between state legislative appropriations, tuition, and educated out-migration across 49 U.S. states from 2006-2015. The results support the notion that states respond negatively to benefit spillovers in higher education: for every one percent increase in the rate of educated out-migration, state appropriations decrease by 1.92 percent (roughly $140 per student). These findings suggest that an education subsidy
provided to states may be necessary to prevent underinvestment in higher education.
Advisor: Thomas Nechyba and Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: H7, H75, I22, I28, R23
