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Category Archives: I28

The Changing Impact of School Suspensions on Student Outcomes: Evidence from North Carolina Public Schools

by Lewis Zhu

Abstract 

Motivated by a historic decline in standardized test scores among US students, this paper investigates whether exclusionary discipline—specifically out-of-school suspensions (OSS)— contributes to changes in academic performance. Drawing on administrative data from the North Carolina Education Research Data Center, which span a period marked by substantial discipline policy reform, I assess whether OSS rates are associated with school-level achievement and estimate the effect of OSS on individual student outcomes. I find that these relationships vary over time. As statewide suspension rates have declined in recent years, the negative association between school-level OSS rates and achievement has weakened, while the effect of OSS on
individual student outcomes has grown more negative. One interpretation is that, as suspensions
become less common, being suspended is a stronger negative signal for the child, possibly
inducing stigma and differential treatment which worsen outcomes. Another possibility is that
suspensions have become more targeted, such that those who are still suspended may have
engaged in more serious misbehavior associated with worse outcomes. Meanwhile, school-level
estimates may appear less negative as suspensions now target a smaller group of (on average)
more disruptive students.

Professor Jason Baron, Faculty Advisor
Professor Duncan Thomas, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: H75; I21; I24; I28
Keywords: Suspension; Discipline policy reform; Test scores; Student achievement

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School Choice and Neighborhood Change in Post-Katrina New Orleans

by Rosalind Fei Yang

Abstract

As school choice policies weaken the traditional link between neighborhoods and schools, traditional housing patterns previously governed by school zoning are changing. This paper examines the connection between school choice reform, specifically an increase in charter schools, and changes in neighborhood composition, focusing on New Orleans over time. I use data from the American Community Survey, the National Center of Education Statistics, and the Louisiana Department of Education. The goal is to understand how school choice policies influence residential dynamics, with a specific focus on their role in gentrification patterns.

Professor Patrick Bayer, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: H75, I21, I28

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To What Extent Does Relative Maturity Affect Test Scores Between Tracked and Untracked Education Systems? Evidence From TIMSS 2019

by Qi Xuan Khoo

Abstract 

Most education systems enforce a cutoff birth date for school entry, and some group students based on their perceived ability—a practice known as tracking. While the former policy leads to maturity gaps among early learners, the concomitant performance gaps may or may not be exacerbated by the latter. Analyzing the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) 2019 dataset to study how relative maturity affects test scores with tracking, this paper finds that older students outperform their younger peers. This relative maturity test score premium is accentuated by tracking, and these effects are found to be more significant in mathematics than in science.

Robert Garlick, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: I2, I24, I28

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Revisiting California Proposition 209: Changes in Science Persistence Rates and Overall Graduation Rates

by Anh-Huy Nguyen

Abstract
California Proposition 209 outlawed race-based affirmative action in the University
of California (UC) system in 1998. However, the UC system subsequently shifted towards
race-blind affirmative action by also reweighing factors other than race in the
admissions process. To evaluate the hypothetical changes in the science persistence rate
and graduation rate of all applicants if racial preferences had been removed entirely, I
estimate baseline and counterfactual admissions models using data from between 1995-
1997. Using a general equilibrium framework to fix the total number of admits and
enrollees, I find that the removal of racial preferences leads to a cascade of minority
enrollees into less selective campuses and a surge of non-minority enrollees into more
selective campuses. The improved matching between students and campuses results in
higher science persistence rates and graduation rates across the pool of all applicants.
In particular, the gains are driven by minority students who were admitted under racial
preferences, because the gains from better matching across UC campuses outweigh the
losses from potentially being pushed outside the UC system. Non-minority students
who are originally rejected under racial preferences also benefit, as some are induced
into the system in the counterfactual, where they are more likely to graduate. I also
investigate claims that applicants may have strategically gamed during the admissions
process by misrepresenting their interest in the sciences in order to maximize their
admissions probability. While there exist incentives to apply in different majors across
the campuses, I find evidence that applicants often fail to game optimally, suggesting
that they may not be fully informed of their relative admissions probabilities in the
sciences and non-sciences.

Professor Peter Arcidiacono, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: I23, I28, J24, H75

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Benefit Spillovers and Higher Education Financing: An Empirical Analysis of Brain Drain and State-Level Investment in Public Universities

By Chinmany G. Pandit

This paper analyzes the impact of out-migration of college graduates on state higher education investment. A three-stage least squares regression model with state and year fixed effects is developed and estimated, addressing the relationship between state legislative appropriations, tuition, and educated out-migration across 49 U.S. states from 2006-2015. The results support the notion that states respond negatively to benefit spillovers in higher education: for every one percent increase in the rate of educated out-migration, state appropriations decrease by 1.92 percent (roughly $140 per student). These findings suggest that an education subsidy
provided to states may be necessary to prevent underinvestment in higher education.

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Advisor: Thomas Nechyba and Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: H7, H75, I22, I28, R23

The Effects of Global Oil Price on Government Investment the Nigerian Agricultural Sector

By Chuka Obiofuma

Nigeria’s heavy dependence on oil makes it a prime target for the resource curse. The occurance of this phenomenon in Nigeria could mean that there is capital flight from the agricultural sectors of the economy when the oil sector increases in profitability. This would disproportionately hurt the poor of Nigeria who depend on agriculture for their livelihood. This work investigates whether or not the Nigerian government, the largest investor into the Agricultural sector, tends to increase or decrease its investment in the agricultural sector as global oil prices rise. Using data from the years 1978-2014, the results of this paper show that as oil prices increase so too does the Nigerian government’s investment in its agricultural sector.

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Advisor: Alison Hagy, Gale Boyd | JEL Codes: I28, O13, Q43 | Tagged:  Agriculture, Energy, Government Policy

Questions?

Undergraduate Program Assistant
Matthew Eggleston
dus_asst@econ.duke.edu

Director of the Honors Program
Michelle P. Connolly
michelle.connolly@duke.edu