Category: Uncategorized (Page 2 of 74)

Introduction

COP29 has paralyzed me. Watching the UNFCCC at work is extremely frustrating and disappointing; anyone who denies this is lying, ignorant, or actively engaging in procedural abuse within the UNFCCC, and I am prepared to defend this perspective. Still, glimmers of hope emerged within the cave of darkness and despair. Here, I will do my best to relay my experiences and my suppositions regarding our ability to combat climate change through the UNFCCC.

The Cave of Darkness

We need to be level and honest with each other about the efficacy of our institutions: this is the only path forward to improving our institutions and underlying material conditions.

First, there was an insane amount of bad faith in the plenary sessions, and I witnessed this from every constituency. Going in, I was prepared for tension between the developed countries and developing countries. I was not, however, prepared for the magnitude of the “proxy wars” and “holy crusades” that went on during the plenary sessions. Some issues, by their nature, are less contentious than others. In practice, however, this was not the reality. Drafts developed over periods of years were essentially unilaterally discarded by states that, for whatever reason, wanted to impede action. These states, alternatively, could have chosen to work through the UN process and negotiate their differences with some sort of a basis. Instead, plenary sessions included states complaining about the procedural hostaging and then returning to preambular principles. After a bit of “hard work,” the tacit became the spoken: it was always meant to be pushed to Brazil anyways.

Second, there was outright sabotage by numerous actors. The presidency guarding drafts and refusing to communicate with the delegations and civil society? Sabotage. Delegations editing a draft without informing other delegates? Sabotage. OPEC nations refusing to interact with any text containing “fossil fuels” or “transition?” Sabotage. Movement politics protest groups with either blatantly unreasonable or watered-down messages? Distracting, at the very least. While I do not know as much about the inner workings of the topic as some others, the magnitude of the fossil fuel industry’s presence was a bit disturbing, especially when considered in the context of the presidency’s behavior and the stances of some countries.

Third, influencer/media culture was out of control at COP. It was essentially climate Comic Con with negotiations that happened to be occurring in the same space. Some pavilions recognized this and intentionally leaned into this with graphics that were tailor made for selfies and photos. At some point, you wonder if everyone just wants to see their friends/make connections rather than actually ameliorate the climate crisis.

The Glimmers of Hope

The trip itself was very fun, and I believe it was a formative life experience for me. I am beyond grateful for the opportunity. I am indebted to Jackson, Colleen, our TAs, and everyone else involved. Baku was beautiful, and I cannot wait to see where all of my talented classmates will go. Everyone is so kind and talented, and I really wish that this class could stay together for the rest of my semesters at Duke.

I think that COP29 being hosted in Baku was great for the locals. I saw many families attending the green zone with intrigue, seeing the plans for Baku White City and learning about climate change and cutting-edge business practices. Furthermore, it was a chance for the local population to interact with the international community; these kinds of ties are important for the future of diplomacy, and I believe these children and young adults will grow up to have a very different idea of the international system than their parents and grandparents.

Additionally, pavilions were filled to the brim with knowledgeable, enthusiastic speakers and staff. Discounting the few times where I had insane propaganda injected into my brain, I really learned a lot. I feel like I am closer and closer to an acceptable generalist view on all things climate and that I am closer to being an expert on nuclear energy, CBAM, and the Just Transition.

Conclusion

So, as a forum, the UNFCCC is not so bad. Practically, it is terrible, at least from what I have seen with my own eyes. There ought to be serious reforms at the fundamental level with the assumption that all parties will not be completely satisfied with the changes. COP needs to be leaner, “consensus” either needs to be abolished or regulated, and there should be a permanent UN body that teaches host countries how to host. Also, if the international community ever makes a treaty resembling the UNFCCC ever again, there needs to be an automatic updating of the contributor base based on agreed-upon indicators, with or without full consensus. Maybe this is controversial, but I believe that issue is at the source of the strife at recent COPs.

In terms of bringing countries together and allowing less influential countries an opportunity to be treated as equals with more influential countries, the UNFCCC is effective. It also allows for a transformation of local perceptions and increases global tolerance. However, it genuinely seemed unworkable in terms of reaching impactful, descriptive solutions for climate change. I would love to be proven wrong next year, but I truly wonder how many more COPs there will be.

As I write this blog on the plane ride home, my heart is heavy. I had this amazing opportunity to connect with climate leaders across the world and learn about the challenges and solutions in developing solutions for climate change. But there were no results so far. Negotiations have gone into overtime, and even today, the expected text has been pushed from being released from 10am to 5pm. It is likely that the 1.3 trillion dollar goal needed to support developing nations will not be reached. There are rumors of a walkout of major players, such as China.

In a word, I feel defeated. How can all these leaders not reach a consensus  after 2 weeks of deliberating? In situations such as these, the  robust lack of progress can be interpreted as the loss of that. In other words, if you  are not moving forward, you are moving backwards. I sat in on the negotiations for Sharm El Shiekh. They have been meeting for the past 3 months, but cannot make any progress or agree, so they have to start over. Two days before the end of COP29, negotiators are giving thoughts on what should be included in the first text of the preamble. A similar result in the GST Transparency negotiations, where parties can not agree on a draft text, so they cannot decide whether to send it to the presidency. How can anyone feel good about this?  Interestingly enough, the loudest voices in these rooms seem to be the biggest emitters. 

According to Wikepidaia: Public policy is an institutionalized proposal or a decided set of elements like laws, regulations, guidelines, and actions to solve or address relevant and real-world problems, guided by a conception and often implemented by programs. 

  I took this practicum course because I want to use innovation to help adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change. I want to understand what the industry is lacking, and  how policy can shape the solutions needed for climate change, and vice versa. I am disappointed because I did not see the core elements of public policy. There was no decision, action, or implementation in these negotiation rooms.Even more disappointing, it appears that the impact of public perception and influence guides decisions more than the to do the right thing. Specifically in the global north. Because of this, capable parties are not willing to concede for the greater good of the world. It is hard for me, as an engineer, to accept that politics is the driving factor in these negotiations, and the desire to solve climate change for the greater good. This can also possibly be due to all the promotion of and propaganda of COP29. “in solidarity for a green world” signs should be replaced with “I will only help to the extent that it does not inconvenience me”

To summarize COP29 negotiations in a phrase, there are too many chefs in the kitchen. Despite common interest among various parties, I am not  surprised that 190 nations could not agree on a single issue. ‘Is COP working?’ The question I keep hearing. From my short time in the public policy space, I say no. We can not even find agreement among the biggest issues (NDC, NQCG, Contributor base) so the smaller, yet important issues of loss and damage, accessibility, and transparency are lost in the wind.

It is almost dystopian in the way that all the signs will be torn down. The oil refineries in Baku, turned off for these ceremonies, will be turned back on. Least Developed Countries will return home and struggle to provide their people with basic needs, such as the ability to store food after it is harvested. And some of the loudest voices will return home to wealth, emissions, and continue that built at the expense of everyone around them.

I don’t know where COP will go from here. It is my desire to attend COP30 in Brazil, and to continue to do work that improves the lives of those that need it the most. What is clear to me, is the COP29 is a very hunger game, and every year, the victors are developed nations that fight and throw tantrums to avoid helping solve s problem they are responsible for. But maybe I am just a jaded engineer ….

At the end of this COP29, I have nothing but to thank for the experience. The city is vibrant, beautiful, and culturally rich. I attended interesting press conferences, and special events on gender, technology, and food systems, among others, and I keep realizing how many issues that I never connected with are related to climate change.

By now, we already know what the outcomes are. The quantum, the sources, the contributors, and the time frame are not what developing countries expected, even less what they need. The $300 billion annually by 2035 will fall far short of addressing the scale of the climate crisis. There is no clarity on grant-based climate finance commitments, and it is ambiguous if developed countries will be who bear the costs. We also know that India -backed up by other developing countries- rejected the deal and stood up for the Global South. Would this alone change the outcome? Probably not immediately but in the mid-term as countries keep pushing for more robust and fair climate finance commitments.

However, until now, the range of opinions on what happened is broad. Some think that this Climate Finance COP was -from the beginning- the chronicle of a death foretold, while others blame Azerbaijan’s leadership for improperly forcing a deal at the last minute, which led to tensions among nations. I believe that these negotiations were a sort of “glass cliff” for an oil-producer developing country like Azerbaijan. Any other country would have faced the inevitable challenges and setbacks that bargaining on finance could bring,,  but in this case, the “feelingNJJJ of failure” that permeates is attributed to the features of the host country rather thaNJn the diffppajskSicult circumstances they were placed in.

The words of Steve Hamer, from NY Climate Exchange, still resonate in my head. He mentioned that perhaps we must evaluate if the UNFCCC is the correct channel to discuss and reach agreements on climate change or not. Might regional agreements be more effective than global ones? I think that the UNFCCC is still useful. It offers a structured process for negotiation, accountability, and collaboration, and is a visible platform for projects, public-private partnerships, academia, and civil society that advocate for sustainable development.

As we look ahead to COP30 in Belém, it brings new challenges and opportunities. This location will allow participants to resume conversations put on hold, but it also raises concerns. Choosing a town in the middle of the Amazon jungle could lead to pollution or destruction of the ecosystem to host the event. These challenges must be addressed to ensure that COP30 achieves meaningful progress without compromising the environment, the local communities, and other vulnerable groups we seek to protect.

For this blog entry, I wanted to share a little bit of the experience of COP on the ground. Indeed, each COP is unique, but it does have tons of similarities – and by your second COP you will be able to notice that. I have been thinking about what I should bring to this blog post that might be most useful to young people taking this class and going to COP or any student reading these blog posts. I have also taken a sneak peek into previous blog posts and realized that there is no single COP experience.

In my previous blog post, I told a little bit about what YOUNGO is (If you haven’t read it, take a look https://sites.duke.edu/duketotheunfccc/2024/11/24/salam-from-baku-the-stadium-is-set-for-a-196-countries-battle/). Being at COP can feel like you are out of the place because we are 1) young and 2) inexperienced (if you are attending for the first time and doesn’t know what the heck is the EAU dialogue). I found my place with other young people at COP in YOUNGO (hint: it is okay to be young and inexperienced). From week 1, I sat and participated (almost) every day at the spokes sections from YOUNGO that happen at 9 am every day. YOUNGO has working groups for all the issues being negotiated at COP and I had the chance to join them and learn about the development of the topics as days went by. I also had the chance to learn about opportunities to contribute with YOUNGO, like speaking opportunities and statement writing.

YOUNGO is far from perfect, but it feels like home. At the end of the day or whenever I felt overloaded or lost, I would stop by the Children and Youth Pavilion and stay until YOUNGO’s daily policy brief. I always found the friends I made since COY19 there.

By this time (end of week 2), I don’t think I can give a run down on all the things I have done. But I do want to touch on my work with WWF International. I supported them by following mainly Loss and Damage, a topic that I was somewhat familiar with, but learned deeply about during my first week. I was lucky to have such a great client who gave me all the support to understand and follow negotiations. But you can also find similar support inside YOUNGO as I have cited before. If I can give you any advice about COP, choose a negotiation track to follow, find young people following it through YOUNGO, and sit in at least one negotiation section every day.

Networking and the events in the pavilions are important and interesting, but this is something you can explore the whole week and day and in other places that are not necessarily inside COP. This is your chance to truly understand what is going on at COP behind closed doors, how decision-making is being made, and what are the contributions and strengths of each party. YOUNGO has a seat at the table of these negotiations as well and, as a young person, you can help shape these discussions.

I have spent most of my time at COP with these young people when not sitting in the cafeteria with WWF negotiators. Even when I was following loss and damage for my client, I was still sitting with my fellow young people from YOUNGO and learning with them. Since COP28, this has been my safe space for exploring COP. And there is nothing that makes me more hopeful than surrounding myself with these people.

Reflections from the Plane: COP29 and the Lingering Challenges

Sitting on a plane, nine hours into the second of three flights, I find myself teetering between the desire to disconnect from the whirlwind of COP29 and an insatiable need to understand what just unfolded. The irony is not lost on me: in an era demanding global unity for climate action, my journey away from COP29 mirrors the disjointed progress we’ve made as a collective.

The end of COP29 was nothing short of chaotic. By the time I reached the airport, the plenary session had been rescheduled—yet another sign of the chronic inefficiency plaguing these conferences. The pavilions had been dismantled, many delegates were already on their way home, and yet, critical agenda items remained unresolved. With access to live updates through WhatsApp groups dedicated to all things COP, I couldn’t escape the unfolding drama, and disappointment quickly set in.

Article 6: A Stumbling Block in Global Carbon Markets

One of the most contentious topics at COP29 was Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which governs international carbon markets and non-market approaches. Despite years of negotiation, progress remains painfully slow. While the framework technically exists, the operational details—such as how to prevent double-counting of emissions reductions and ensure transparency—are still being hammered out.

The lingering delays on Article 6 are frustrating because this mechanism holds immense potential. If designed effectively, it could incentivize investment in clean energy projects across the globe, particularly in developing nations. However, instead of building trust and collaboration, the negotiations at COP29 revealed deep divides. The Global South, which has the capacity to contribute significantly to climate solutions, remains sidelined financially. Meanwhile, wealthier nations stall, failing to provide the promised support.

Without resolving Article 6, the global carbon market risks being little more than a patchwork of national systems, leaving the Paris Agreement’s ambitions unattainable.

• Article 6.2: Allows countries to engage in cooperative approaches by transferring mitigation outcomes internationally, provided they adhere to robust accounting standards to prevent double-counting of emissions reductions.

• Article 6.4: Establishes a centralized UN-supervised mechanism to generate tradable carbon credits from emission reduction projects, aiming to ensure environmental integrity and promote sustainable development.

Instead of building trust and collaboration, the negotiations at COP29 revealed deep divides. The Global South, which has the capacity to contribute significantly to climate solutions, remains sidelined financially. Meanwhile, wealthier nations stall, failing to provide the promised support.

Without resolving Article 6, the global carbon market risks being little more than a patchwork of national systems, leaving the Paris Agreement’s ambitions unattainable.

NCQGs: A Global South Perspective

Another critical issue that shaped COP29 was the debate over New Collective Quantified Goals (NCQGs) for climate finance. These goals, meant to replace the outdated $100 billion target set over a decade ago, are crucial for scaling up financial flows to address the climate crisis.

Developed nations committed to mobilizing $300 billion annually by 2035 to support developing countries in their climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. This figure represents a tripling of the previous $100 billion annual target set in 2009. However, this commitment falls short of the $1.3 trillion per year that many developing nations and experts deem necessary to effectively address climate challenges. The “Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3tn” initiative was introduced to strategize on scaling up climate finance to meet these needs, with further discussions anticipated at COP30 in Belém, Brasil

For the Global South, the NCQGs are more than a financial commitment—they represent an opportunity to rectify historic injustices. Developing nations have long emphasized that they need adequate funding to adapt to climate impacts and transition to low-carbon economies. Yet, as the negotiations dragged on, it became clear that wealthier nations were reluctant to commit to meaningful targets or timelines.

The lack of decisive action on NCQGs underscores a troubling dynamic: while the capacity exists in many Global South countries to implement ambitious climate projects, the resources don’t follow. Instead, financial support remains locked behind bureaucratic hurdles and political posturing.

Final Takeaways: COP29’s Missed Opportunities

As I reflect on COP29, I can’t help but feel a mix of hope and frustration. On one hand, the pavilions and side events were filled with innovative ideas, passionate advocates, and glimpses of what is possible. On the other hand, the official negotiations were mired in delays, watered-down commitments, and a troubling lack of urgency.

The failure to deliver meaningful support to the Global South remains a glaring issue. These nations are often the most vulnerable to climate change yet are expected to carry out ambitious plans without the financial backing they were promised. It’s not a lack of capability that holds them back, but rather the broken promises of those who wield the most power.

Looking ahead to COP30 in Brasil, I can’t shake the feeling of impending chaos. As agenda items are pushed down the road, the pressure on Brasil to deliver a breakthrough will be immense. However, without structural changes to how these negotiations are conducted, it’s hard to imagine a different outcome. The risk is that COP30 becomes yet another platform for delay, culminating in an explosion of unmet expectations.

Hope Amidst the Frustration

Still, hope persists. The voices of youth activists, indigenous leaders, and grassroots movements are growing louder. These groups are increasingly shaping the conversation and holding negotiators accountable. If COP29 taught us anything, it’s that the energy and solutions exist—we just need the political will to match.

As I prepare for my next flight, I remain both exhausted and determined. The road to climate justice is long, but it’s one we must travel together. Here’s hoping COP30 brings us closer to the action we so desperately need.