Author: Ryan Perez

Introduction

COP29 has paralyzed me. Watching the UNFCCC at work is extremely frustrating and disappointing; anyone who denies this is lying, ignorant, or actively engaging in procedural abuse within the UNFCCC, and I am prepared to defend this perspective. Still, glimmers of hope emerged within the cave of darkness and despair. Here, I will do my best to relay my experiences and my suppositions regarding our ability to combat climate change through the UNFCCC.

The Cave of Darkness

We need to be level and honest with each other about the efficacy of our institutions: this is the only path forward to improving our institutions and underlying material conditions.

First, there was an insane amount of bad faith in the plenary sessions, and I witnessed this from every constituency. Going in, I was prepared for tension between the developed countries and developing countries. I was not, however, prepared for the magnitude of the “proxy wars” and “holy crusades” that went on during the plenary sessions. Some issues, by their nature, are less contentious than others. In practice, however, this was not the reality. Drafts developed over periods of years were essentially unilaterally discarded by states that, for whatever reason, wanted to impede action. These states, alternatively, could have chosen to work through the UN process and negotiate their differences with some sort of a basis. Instead, plenary sessions included states complaining about the procedural hostaging and then returning to preambular principles. After a bit of “hard work,” the tacit became the spoken: it was always meant to be pushed to Brazil anyways.

Second, there was outright sabotage by numerous actors. The presidency guarding drafts and refusing to communicate with the delegations and civil society? Sabotage. Delegations editing a draft without informing other delegates? Sabotage. OPEC nations refusing to interact with any text containing “fossil fuels” or “transition?” Sabotage. Movement politics protest groups with either blatantly unreasonable or watered-down messages? Distracting, at the very least. While I do not know as much about the inner workings of the topic as some others, the magnitude of the fossil fuel industry’s presence was a bit disturbing, especially when considered in the context of the presidency’s behavior and the stances of some countries.

Third, influencer/media culture was out of control at COP. It was essentially climate Comic Con with negotiations that happened to be occurring in the same space. Some pavilions recognized this and intentionally leaned into this with graphics that were tailor made for selfies and photos. At some point, you wonder if everyone just wants to see their friends/make connections rather than actually ameliorate the climate crisis.

The Glimmers of Hope

The trip itself was very fun, and I believe it was a formative life experience for me. I am beyond grateful for the opportunity. I am indebted to Jackson, Colleen, our TAs, and everyone else involved. Baku was beautiful, and I cannot wait to see where all of my talented classmates will go. Everyone is so kind and talented, and I really wish that this class could stay together for the rest of my semesters at Duke.

I think that COP29 being hosted in Baku was great for the locals. I saw many families attending the green zone with intrigue, seeing the plans for Baku White City and learning about climate change and cutting-edge business practices. Furthermore, it was a chance for the local population to interact with the international community; these kinds of ties are important for the future of diplomacy, and I believe these children and young adults will grow up to have a very different idea of the international system than their parents and grandparents.

Additionally, pavilions were filled to the brim with knowledgeable, enthusiastic speakers and staff. Discounting the few times where I had insane propaganda injected into my brain, I really learned a lot. I feel like I am closer and closer to an acceptable generalist view on all things climate and that I am closer to being an expert on nuclear energy, CBAM, and the Just Transition.

Conclusion

So, as a forum, the UNFCCC is not so bad. Practically, it is terrible, at least from what I have seen with my own eyes. There ought to be serious reforms at the fundamental level with the assumption that all parties will not be completely satisfied with the changes. COP needs to be leaner, “consensus” either needs to be abolished or regulated, and there should be a permanent UN body that teaches host countries how to host. Also, if the international community ever makes a treaty resembling the UNFCCC ever again, there needs to be an automatic updating of the contributor base based on agreed-upon indicators, with or without full consensus. Maybe this is controversial, but I believe that issue is at the source of the strife at recent COPs.

In terms of bringing countries together and allowing less influential countries an opportunity to be treated as equals with more influential countries, the UNFCCC is effective. It also allows for a transformation of local perceptions and increases global tolerance. However, it genuinely seemed unworkable in terms of reaching impactful, descriptive solutions for climate change. I would love to be proven wrong next year, but I truly wonder how many more COPs there will be.

A Positive Stance on Happenstance

As I finish up my second day at COP29, I wanted to summarize my experience.

With zero sleep, I attended my first day of COP29. I made it a point to do the more “procedural” things first: obtaining my badge and water bottle, touring the pavilions and plenary areas of the Blue Zone, and creating my schedule for the d—

All of a sudden, I received a notification that that Duke’s appointment with the US Ambassador to Azerbaijan was actually not at the COP29 venue itself: it was at the US Embassy located in the city. With impassioned haste, I immediately went to the buses. I was looking forward to this speaker slot more than all the rest and I refused to miss it.

I eventually made it to the American embassy with my friends, Karimah and Kayla. After passing through the security screening, we had the pleasure of meeting with Ambassador Mark Libby, his staff, and a former Duke alumnus. Ambassador Libby was full of knowledge, and he was genuine and forthcoming in our conversation. To this point, the Ambassador meeting is the highlight of my trip. I learned so much about the intricacies of ambassadorship and the relationship between the US and Azerbaijan but also the relationship the US has with other actors in the region through Azerbaijan. After the conversation, which felt very exclusive, the Duke alum treated us to a delicious meal!

Then, much like Zeus, we harnessed Bolt. We returned to the venue, and we divided up to pursue our individual journeys. The first place I stopped was at the Just Transition booth; I listed to a discussion about what it would practically look like to have a “just transition.” The subject matter was something I am already somewhat well-versed in, so I was happy when I was able to learn a few things. I spoke briefly with some of the panelists afterwards who apologized for being unable to give me a pin. I did not know about this, but apparently pins are the very hot commodities at COPs! I then headed over to a booth that was a conglomerate of businesses, NGOs, and policy professionals specializing in energy storage. On a whim, I asked one of the pavilion attendants his thoughts on nuclear energy, and he gave me a wonderful twenty-minute-long conversation on the topic. I felt proud that I had some points to add to the conversation, and we ended up exchanging information at the end.

This interaction was the true exemplar for my second day at COP. Although I was certainly more intentional with my meandering, I chose to go with the flow and find events and negotiations I was interested in. As someone who is very cynical about the form and existence of COPs, I can say that, undeniably, my attendance has been worth it even if simply for the sake of these kinds of interactions.

By the way, the negotiation that I attended (the Sharm el-Sheikh mitigation ambition and implementation work programme informal dialogue) was a trainwreck. Apparently, a base draft (a product of multiple years) that had been essentially agreed to as a starting point suddenly found opposition before the negotiations, meaning that the delegates had to start from ground zero. They literally began by expressing their discontent for the aforementioned and then stating their principles for the preamble. The meeting was then cut short after Zimbabwe made a Point of Order to explain that this was unproductive and that everyone was tired. The Co-facilitator adjourned the meeting. The only truly notable thing that (really) happened was the South Korean delegate quoting The Art of War in his admonition of the delegates who nixed the draft base text.

What a life.

While COP29 remains ongoing, the geopolitical implications of the negotiations deserve attention. I am not yet at the conference, but I am wary of the Party requests and coalitions that may serve as an indication for geopolitical behavior into the next decade.

Something that shocked me personally was a formal request from the BASIC countries: to add the issue of the “climate change-related, trade-restrictive unilateral measures” (clearly referring to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism [CBAM]) to the COP29 agenda. Ultimately, Azerbaijan opted not to include this agenda item, but this is no assurance for the future. As we know, COP30 will be hosted in Brazil, one of the BASIC countries; additionally, China has reaffirmed their stance against such measures, stating that they will lobby for the inclusion of the issue at COP30.

The EU’s CBAM has proved to be a divisive issue. From one angle, it is a noble attempt to combat carbon leakage and incentivize efficient utilization of carbon. From another angle, it could be considered unilateral economic protectionism that, depending on how you analyze WTO rules (if at all), may violate international trade law and may negatively affect developing countries’ ability to grow their economies. The latter conception is one that appears to be shared by the BASIC countries, which only seem to be increasing in their geopolitical influence.

The United States’ reelection of Donald Trump to the presidency seems to have diminished the United States’ bargaining power at COP29. This American debuff in negotiating presence, if true, empowers the BASIC countries more and may even isolate the EU and similarly situated developed countries. Although it is too early to tell, this is a phenomenon that could survive for the next four years and beyond.

There has also been substantial dialogue over the presence of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP29. While some celebrate their executives’ promises to invest $500m to expand access to sustainable modern energy (mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia), others fear that these promises are merely an attempt to justify their presence at a conference whose objectives facially require a diminution in their industry. In other words, these fossil fuel executives could be saving face by making such promises in order to attend COP29 and lobby world leaders to pursue policies and negotiation outcomes that benefit the fossil fuel industry.

These promises also occurred in the context of the President of Azerbaijan, a major fossil fuels producer and supplier to Europe (especially following the invasion of Ukraine), declaring that oil and gas were “gift[s] from God.” From certain statements made by OPEC leadership in and around COP28, we know that the aforementioned underlying sentiment about fossil fuels is not unique to Azerbaijan. The exact future of the fossil fuels industry has yet to be determined, but they certainly retain very influential interest groups and will continue to be critical until the energy transition can be finalized.

As COP29 continues into its second week, I am very excited to attend. I have already learned so much from the UNFCCC Practicum’s guest speakers and my very own classmates, and I cannot wait to sit in on negotiations and attend the numerous side events. Stay tuned for more specific updates on my experience, and please leave a comment if you feel so inclined.