Author: Galen Hiltbrand (Page 2 of 2)

The country that presides over the UNFCCC in a given year sets the tone and the agenda for the meeting. While their influence may be hard to pinpoint, it can determine the outcome of the conference. Disorganized leadership is one of the reasons often given for COP15 in Copenhagen being viewed as a disappointment. In contrast, the leadership of Laurent Fabius, the president of at COP21 in Paris, is highly applauded. He did an incredible job of setting hard deadlines and ensuring that all Parties felt included in the process. Spoiler alert: the landmark Paris Agreement came out of this negotiation, with 195 countries agreeing to the plan of limiting global temperature change to 2^oC.

Fijian Influence

This year’s COP marked the first UNFCCC chaired by a small island developing state. Germany agreed to physically host the event since it had the infrastructure and capacity to do so, but the Fijian government presided over the conference. Despite being hosted in a damp and frigid European country, the Fijian culture and influence were felt throughout the conference. The opening ceremony of COP23 was a symbolic performance emphasizing the social justice aspects of climate change. The event opened with a song titled I am an Island. The bejeweled singer was led into the venue following a group of children holding climate action signs, with messages such as “save our planet.” This was a strong reminder that the decisions, or lack of decisions, made by the UNFCCC will have direct impacts on the fate of these children’s worlds. Next, there was a Fijian ceremony during which men in traditional garb offered a sperm whale tooth to the Environmental Mister of Germany, Barbara Hendricks. This ceremony only underscored the fact that the people of these state islands, who have contributed little to the anthropogenic climate change, are among the most vulnerable to its impacts. Continued sea level rise will directly impact the homes of these communities and their traditions. 

During COP23, I followed the topic of Loss & Damage (check out Tasfia’s blog posts for more information on the topic). Throughout the week, I heard many representatives from Least Developed Countries emphasize the need for financial mechanisms to properly prepare for and respond to loss and damage resulting from climate change. A reoccurring talking point of optimism at these events was that the concerns of vulnerable states would be higher on the agenda at this COP given that Fiji, a vulnerable state itself, was hosting the conference.

However, an interesting perspective I encountered at the negotiations was the concern that because Fiji is a developing country itself, other developing countries were less inclined to make rigorous demands on the host than has previously been the case with developed countries chairing the COP. While this type of sentiment is hard to prove, it is an example of how complicated UNFCCC dynamics can be. Something that seems like it will obviously influence the conference in one direction could actually have the reverse effect due to the complexity of international relations.

Looking towards Poland:

There is concern among environmentalists looking towards next year’s COP24 hosted by Poland. Poland is a notoriously coal-dependent state. In fact, as of 2015, 80.9% of the electricity produced in Poland was from coal sources. Thus, advancing the international agreements to cut back on fossil fuels is not exactly in line with its economic interests. Moreover, the current Polish administration is not particularly environmentally friendly. Therefore, the prospect of COP24 having an aggressive agenda towards combatting climate change is not looking all that promising. However, as has been proved in the past, it is hard to predict how COPs will actually play out.

The first time I formally learned about climate change was in a high school class when we watched the documentary An Inconvenient Truth, written by Al Gore. What may have made a larger impression on me than the film itself was that afterwards a number of my classmates said they did not believe in climate change. Up until that point, I had no idea that climate change denial existed. It was shocking and infuriating to learn that this phenomenon, which seemed blatantly problematic and irresponsible to ignore, was highly politicized. The realization I had during that class sparked my interest in the issue of climate change.

Fast-forward 10 years and I find myself seated only a few feet away from Al Gore as he presents at the UN Climate Change Negotiations at COP23 in Bonn, Germany. He began his presentation going through examples from just this year of unusually severe precipitation, fires, droughts and hurricanes that have devastated civilizations around the world. Sadly, over the past decade it has become increasingly easy to find examples of more extreme weather fueled by climate change.

Al Gore at COP23

Gore then transitioned to a more optimistic vantage point: why we should be optimistic about our society’s ability to address this issue. One of the most famous visuals from An Inconvenient Truth was the climatologist Michael Mann’s “Hockey Stick Graph” depicting how global average temperatures remained relatively stable over the past 1000 years but have increased at an unprecedented rate since the industrial revolution. Al Gore’s presentation on Friday had new graphs that followed the same hockey stick trend. Fortunately, these graphs were depicting the dramatic growth potential of renewable energy in recent years. The exponential growth of clean energy, particularly wind and solar, can be attributed to a decrease in production costs and an improvement in storage technology. Furthermore, he explained that developing countries are able leapfrog dirty fuels and go directly to renewable energy. He showed inspiring figures illustrating the amount Morocco, Chile, India and others are investing in renewable energies in comparison to other energies.

This week at COP23, I have been following the topic of Loss and Damage closely. This has provided me with the unique opportunity hear directly from representatives of numerous Least Developed Countries (LDCs), including Nepal, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, and Uganda. A common theme across these LDCs is a focus on expanding their renewable energy sources. This will allow countries to continue to develop their economies without hindering their ability to reach their Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement. As there continues to be breakthroughs in renewable storage technology, it will also provide more grid stability when these vulnerable states are faced with extreme weather events.

While it is embarrassing that the current U.S. President continues to tout the same climate denial views I was first confronted with in high school, it has been inspiring to witness the global community moving forward on the issue of climate change at COP23.

In early August, I traveled to Nepal to do a trek in the Kathmandu Valley. My friend and I got to the Indian/Nepalese border later than expected, so our only option for getting to Kathmandu was to take a car in the middle of the night through the mountainous terrain. As a result of it being monsoon season, the most traversed and direct road had been blocked off due to landslides. So we had to take small roads, switch backing along the mountain’s edge. What was supposed to be a 5-hour drive ended up taking 9-hours. Around 3am, we had a frightening experience when a rush of mud came tumbling down the mountainside to our left, engulfing the tiny, windy road in front of us. Luckily our driver screeched to a halt, saving us from being caught in the path of the mudslide. Despite this close call, we were incredibly fortunate with the timing of our travels. Had we planned our trip for just two weeks later, we would have been caught in the extreme flooding that completely devastated much of Nepal and neighboring countries.

Bil Lama, our local guide, and I mid-trek in Nepal

This flood was a topic of discussion at a side event yesterday, titled “Countries’ Experiences with Regards to Loss and Damage, Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Risk Management: Case Studies from Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Gambia, and Nepal.” One of the speakers was Manjeet Dhakal, a member of Nepal’s national delegation at the UNFCCC. He is also associated with Climate Analytics (the organization I am partnering with). His presentation was on the potential of loss and damage in the context of Nepal. Mr. Dhakal explained that Nepal, one of the Least Developed Countries, is one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change and is already experiencing its harmful impacts. In fact, the average temperature in Nepal is rising at a faster rate than the global average. According to Mr. Dhakal’s presentation, it is projected that by 2050 the country’s average temperature will have risen by 1.7^oC since 1975. This means Nepal is on track to experience a temperature change above the 1.5^oC limit the Paris Agreement is aiming to stay below to avoid particularly dangerous climate scenarios.

Manjeet Dhakal speaking on Potential of Loss and Damage in Context of Nepal

One of the climatic changes Nepal is experiencing is more extreme precipitation. Mr. Dhakal explained that Nepal has seen a 15% increase in annual rainfall levels. He used the August floods as an example of this unusual precipitation. As you can see in the photo of his presentation (above), these extreme weather events have serious impacts on the local population. In Nepal, 1.7 million people were affected, 461 thousand were displaced, and 143 Nepalese were killed. These tragic figures are only a fraction of total losses experienced when taking into account the neighboring countries of India and Bangladesh. Mr. Dhakal stated, “floods do not understand political borders.” Dr. Saleemul Huq, a Bangladeshi scientist on the panel, added, “a friend of mine from Kathmandu sent me an SMS saying, ‘We are sending you water. Get ready.’ And then 10 days later it came.”

Below are OCHA’s statistics on the total humanitarian losses in the region. In total, 41 million people were affected and at least 900 people were killed as a result of the flooding.

https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/SouthAsia_240817.pdf

When sitting in these conference rooms in Bonn, still warming up from the damp cold air outside, it is easy to feel removed from the impacts of climate change. However, today served as a reminder that climate change is already disrupting the lives of millions.