Author: Rachel Brinks

As I reflect on my time at the negotiations, I am inspired by all of the messages of hope that I have heard.

During my last few days at the COP, I was able to hear Al Gore speak. His talk outlined what may be at stake if the world does not come together to meet the Paris Agreement and cap warming at 2° C. Rare extreme weather events like the recent hurricanes that hit the southeastern United States and the Caribbean are expected to occur more frequently as sea surface temperatures rise, effectively “priming the pump” for larger storms.[1] Agriculture around the world is predicted to be greatly impacted due to the changing productivity of crops and livestock from weather related stressors.[2]  The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees predicts that “50 to 200 million people will be forced out of their homes because of climate change by 2050”.[3] However, while it is important and sobering to focus on why the world needs to come together to take action, the even larger message of the COP was one of hope and opportunity.

The Duke group at Al Gore’s talk

Hope is a motivating factor and, from what I witnessed during my week at the negotiations, there is a lot to feel hopeful about. A wave of clean energy is moving across the world. In his talk, Gore highlighted that in 2000, the best projections were that the world would install 30 gigawatts of wind energy by 2010. This projection was beat 14.5 times over. Solar energy has grown even more dramatically. The worldwide projection for 2010 was 1 gigawatt of solar. In 2010, the installations were 17 times higher than what was predicted. Last year, in 2016, the world installed 75 gigawatts of solar.[4]

Even without federal leadership there is momentum moving the United States in the right direction. Throughout the week, I had an opportunity to sit in on numerous panels discussing policies at all levels of government and from the private sector to transition to cleaner energy sources. Even without new federal policies, wind and solar are now more cost competitive than coal in the United States. During the COP, the America’s Pledge Report was released which estimated that the “We Are Still In” coalition currently represents more than half of the U.S. economy. If it were its own country, the coalition would be the third largest economy in the world. While no substitute for federal action, this was encouraging to hear. While the majority of countries around the world still have a long way to go in order to meet their targets and more aggressive action is necessary, things are moving in a hopeful direction.

[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/08/549280066/hurricanes-are-sweeping-the-atlantic-whats-the-role-of-climate-change?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20170908

[2] https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/natural-resources-environment/climate-change/agriculture-and-climate-change/

[3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/10/31/a-proposal-in-new-zealand-could-trigger-the-era-of-climate-change-refugees/?utm_term=.da4e16858df5

[4]https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw#gs.ZJybGYI

Starting on Thursday, the United States unofficial Climate Action Center began showcasing events highlighting the power of subnational actors. The kickoff events featured mayors, University energy managers, faith leaders and business officials from across the country.

All of these speakers stood united behind the message that the United States will meet its commitment to the Paris Agreement with or without the federal government. Each discussed how their organization and the respective communities they represent were interested in acting on climate change but for a diverse set of reasons.

A sign at the U.S. Climate Action Center

James Brainard, the Mayor of Carmel, Indiana discussed how in his town, conservative leadership has demonstrated that climate change initiates can work when they focus on helping public health, creating jobs, and saving money. The mayor worked to enact policies to make the city more walkable, thereby reducing the amount of time the average driver would have to commute to work and reducing overall air pollution in the area. Brainard also worked to increase green space in Carmel by creating 1,000 acres of parkland and planting more trees on city streets. In addition, the city’s vehicle fleet was changed to run entirely on hybrid or alternative fuel vehicles. But perhaps most significant, the entirely Republican City Council unanimously voted to stay committed to the Paris Agreement goals.

The idea that initiatives like these are being undertaken in a small, red-leaning town in Indiana are often met with surprise. Brainard  is regularly asked how he was able to convince members of his City Council who were skeptical of climate science to adopt these programs. In response to these questions, he highlighted the importance of getting to the same end goal through emphasizing different messages. Since the threat of climate change is not always tangible to a person that has not directly felt the effects or learned about the issue in great detail, reducing energy might not seem seem like priority issue to address. However, when Brainard mentioned to his City Council members that switching all the city street lights to LED bulbs would produce a 22% return on investment annually from lower electricity bills for the city, they were suddenly happy to hear more about similar cost saving measures.

Brainard emphasized that there is a tradition of non-partisanship when it comes to protecting the planet, highlighting the fact that it was Teddy Roosevelt who set aside millions of acres of park land for the national park system, that Richard Nixon created the Environmental Protection Agency, and that Ronald Reagan signed the Montreal Protocol that banned ozone depleting substances. The City of Carmel, Indiana, has been able to demonstrate that acting on the issue of climate change is not and should not be a partisan issue.

Yesterday kicked off the first day of the two-week Conference of the Parties (COP23) in Bonn, Germany. This marks the 23^rd annual international climate negotiations, bringing together an estimated 25,000 people from nearly 200 countries around the globe. The purpose of this COP is to hammer out the details of the Paris Agreement and to showcase actions being taken around the world.

A German Exhibit at the COP23 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany. / AFP PHOTO / PATRIK STOLLARZ

The Paris Agreement was an enormous feat, marking the first major international climate commitment since the Kyoto Protocol. Currently every country in the world has signed or ratified the Paris Agreement, after Syria finally announced its intention to sign earlier today. The agreement allows for each country to “choose its own adventure” on climate policy by submitting its own pledges called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)[1]. These pledges are revisited every 5 years, evaluated, and ratcheted up for increased ambition. In order for this approach to work, countries need to produce reliable data and have a clear review process to evaluate themselves and one another. It is these types of rules and procedures that are being discussed and argued over this week.

In addition to the formal negotiations working out these policy questions, COP23 serves as a platform to showcase the work that is being done from a diverse set of non-party stakeholders including businesses, nonprofits, and local and regional governments. These groups play an especially important role in light of the Trump Administration’s recent announcement that it intends to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Soon after this announcement was made in early June, a coalition called “We Are Still In” was born. This coalition represents over 2,500 cities, states, businesses, investors, universities, and faith-based organizations from all 50 states and Puerto Rico that have signed on to continue to uphold the national commitments of the Paris Agreement.

Although cities, states, and businesses cannot formally participate in the negotiations, they can commit to implement many of the specific measures needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals and can signal to the rest of the world that many in the United States will continue to act no matter the federal policy. The “We Are Still In” campaign has a large influence, representing 127 million Americans and $6.2 trillion dollars of the U.S. economy[2].

This coalition will be pushing hard over the next two weeks to make their presence known. Starting Thursday, the U.S. Climate Pavilion will begin hosting large events with speakers like former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg; California Governor Jerry Brown; and Oregon Governor Kate Brown. Mayors of cities across the country, from New York City to Davenport, Iowa, will be speaking on redesigning urban areas and reducing emissions. Major corporations including Walmart, Microsoft, and HP will also be discussing their efforts.

I will be supporting this coalition by working with the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI). This group represents an international network of thousands of cities, towns, and regions. I’ll be volunteering at the U.S. Climate Pavilion and will be reporting on what these subnational actors have to say.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/11/06/whats-next-for-the-paris-agreement-nearly-200-countries-meet-this-week-to-talk-implementation/?utm_term=.3667d7f2195e

[2] https://www.wearestillin.com/about