Following my last post on China’s recently-announced climate goal of peaking carbon emission by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, this post dives deeply into the driver behind the target and the potential pathways for China to win this uphill battle in its transition to low-carbon development. I had the pleasure of joining the webinar “How will China Achieve its New Climate Change Goals” organized by Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions for more insights from researchers and policy experts.
After the announcement of this climate goal, some folks applauded for the world’s largest GHG emitter’s ambition to tackle climate change and its willingness to sacrifice its GDP numbers in exchange for a cooler planet. Some folks questioned the target for being merely a recalibration of existing environmental policies. Responses from the panelists seemed to admit the fact the reality is more confusing than the target implies. On the one hand, China has been constructing new coal power plants in its territory and financing coal-related infrastructures abroad. The removal of subsidies on renewables and the pandemic has caused sales drop in solar and wind industries. On the other hand, the newly released target does represent a step change. Before the UN Assembly, China has never announced a firm date of when carbon emissions would peak and and net-zero emissions would be realized, though high-level officials have constantly brought up those conversations. Now, this unilateral, absolute, and long-term goal announced by President Xi provides a clear timeline, which represents the Chinese government’s determination to launch its low-carbon economic growth path.
One interesting point that panelists shared was the high-frequency words “innovation” and “green development” in various official documents. The signal sent out is that the domestic long-term climate strategy leans more towards an economic development goal than a pure environmental decision. The climate goal was declared at the time when China is preparing for its next five-year plan. In this new development era, China is looking for green economic growth engines to ensure the transition from an export-oriented manufacturing-based economy to a service and consumption-based economy. Moving up the value chain will need China to innovate its technologies, such as electric vehicles, energy storage, solar panels, wind turbines, and hydrogen, which will undoubtedly accelerate the economic transition and reduce GHG emissions. As an outcome or a co-product of economic transition, climate goal should not be interpreted outside of the current economic development context.
To achieve climate goals, China has to take quick actions on decarbonizing its coal-dominated power and industrial sectors, financing and developing clean and environmental-friendly technologies, implementing supportive national and provincial policies, and increasing public awareness of climate change. The potential pathways include digitalization around EV. The benefit of investing in EV development reflects not only the decrease in emissions, but also the improvement of people’s living standards, where less air pollution being released into the atmosphere. Hydrogen, an emerging market where developed countries are racing to lead the industry, needs clear policy standards and guidance to direct the market. Reducing the power sector emissions would also require the electricity sector to incorporate market mechanisms so that a level playing field is created for renewables technologies and fossil fuel-based power plants. A highlight from panelists’ discussion centered around the emission reductions in the food system, which I don’t usually stumble across in my readings. Nonetheless, a significant share of China’s GHG emission comes from its food sector. Thus, improving agricultural technology and shifting to a more balanced diet will help China achieve the target earlier.
However, for any countries who share an economy size like China, the transformation might not generate equal impacts on every city. For some cities that heavily rely on fossil fuel-related activities, their economy might face the threat of collapse. Ensuring a just transformation with no one being left behind will be one of the many issues waiting for solutions. I’m eager to see what approaches the Chinese government will adopt for the next five years, and I believe all the experiences and lessons learned from China will help other developing countries turn to the net-zero development path.
