12/16/2023

Paraguayan-Cuban-American: reconciling different world views at COP

I was born and raised in Miami, Florida. My mom is Paraguayan and my dad is Cuban. I go to school at Duke (although I almost typed I “went” to school at Duke because I’ll officially be done with all my undergraduate assignments once I submit this blog post). I spent several summers researching sustainable development and the Itaipu Dam in Paraguay with Dr. Christine Folch, one of the leading experts in this field. I learned pretty much everything I know about the UNFCCC through this practicum in a U.S. university, which to its credit was a very diverse and international class. I attended COP with the delegation of Paraguay and watched the President of Cuba lead the G77 + China summit.

Throughout the whole process, I felt my brain flip-flop through all these different worldviews. Climate change is a very real and existential threat that we are running out of time to solve. I see so much hope in the technological advances we have seen in recent decades, such as solar, wind, batteries, and EVs coming down the cost curve. I believe we have a shot at getting this right, which is a big reason why I got into this space in the first place.

At the same time, it is morally bankrupt that the developed world rapidly grew their economies through fossil fuels, polluted the whole world in the process, and is now demanding that developing countries not use these same resources to develop. For all the hope that I have in technological leapfrogging, I see the real and pressing basic needs that countries like Paraguay need to address right now. Climate change is an understandably lower priority than goals such as poverty alleviation and food security. And in a country with limited resources, these can be very real tradeoffs in the short term.

I think there is a lot of hope for rapidly deploying low-carbon projects, such as renewable energy and energy efficiency. However, the key to stopping climate change is concurrently scaling back fossil fuel emissions. Our current suite of climate solutions is not a perfect substitute for the high-density and dispatchable energy that comes from fossil fuels. It is still a big ask to remove these from the development equation of a low-income country.

The developed world is not doing enough to assist the developing world in this transition. Funding pledges fall short and are seldom fulfilled. Protectionism is inhibiting real areas for collaboration and promotion of development. Concessionary funding has actually decreased in recent years, leading to even larger debt burdens for countries that did not create this problem to begin with. There needs to be a fundamental shift in attitude if the U.S. and other developed countries want to fully bring the developing world on board in this climate transition.

 

Article 6 – no final agreements, but countries forge ahead anyways

I want to wrap up my thoughts on my last blog post on Article 6. By the end of COP28, no formal agreements were reached on Articles 6.2 and 6.4. The parties agreed to resume talks next year. While this is a disappointing outcome, some have pointed out that no agreement is better than a bad agreement.

Article 6.2 is already being implemented by some countries based on the rulebook established in Glasgow COP26. Paraguay is actually a great example of this. During COP28, Paraguay reached agreements with both the UAE and Singapore to establish bilateral cooperative agreements under Article 6.2. These agreements will be finalized in the coming year, after which the UAE and Singapore will be able to purchase Internationally Traded Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) based on mitigation projects in Paraguay.

It is very exciting to see Paraguay be a pioneer in this. In July of this year, Paraguay passed a carbon credit law to strengthen is accounting, monitoring, and verification of carbon credit projects within the country. This law established a national registry that will ensure that projects are not double-counted. There are still open questions about how the country will prove additionality – meaning that the credit created new emissions reductions as opposed to paying for something that would have happened anyway.

Overall, these are positive developments for the Article 6.2 mechanism and prove that countries can already begin to implement it. It will be important to monitor advancements in these projects to ensure they comply with the highest levels of environmental integrity and human rights protection.