It is 4:03pm EST. I am sitting in a coffee shop in Durham, N.C., prepping for my trip to the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties 22 (COP22) in Marrakesh, Morocco, and I only have been able to think about three words since I went to bed last night.
President Donald Trump.
This came as a surprise to everyone, including the Republican Party.[1] As the shock wears off for America and the world, the big question on everyone’s mind is, “now what?” Nowhere is the answer to this question more important than the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.
Photo credit: UNFCCC
Trump has consistently stated he does not believe in the science of climate change[2] and has a host of advisers who also question the science.[3] But what does that mean for the rest of the world and their negotiators currently in Marrakesh? America’s participation was an essential element for China to participate in the Paris Agreement[4] and U.S. leadership from Secretary Kerry made major steps towards ensuring its completion.[5] Without this robust American support what will the final result in Marrakesh be; what will the attitude of COP22 be?
After sitting and thinking, I propose four possibilities
- Business As Usual: The negotiators and delegations will continue acting as if American participation will occur as expected (even if nothing new will happen). It is not impossible that America reduces emissions, even with a President Trump. The Paris Agreement is in force now[6], the U.S. has legally agreed to it[7] and to withdraw from the Agreement, legally, is difficult.[8] The Clean Power Plan, the driving force behind America’s planned CO2 reductions, hangs in the balance of the D.C. Circuit Court.[9] If the D.C. Circuit approves the CO2 regulations and then the Supreme Court approves it, President Trump will have a difficult, but not impossible, time removing those regulations.[10] In short: there is a scenario where the U.S. still meets it obligations from the EPA’s regulations.
- More Aggressive Action: Expecting limited participation from the U.S. for the next four years, the E.U., Japan, China and other big emitters take greater action. It is not impossible to see China stepping up to the plate. China has criticized Trump’s proposals in the past,[11] and it would give them a chance to flex their international muscle, especially in a world where States are unsure of U.S. leadership.[12] Additionally, climate change will affect China a lot more than the developed world.[13] However, many of China’s proposals for COP22 so far do not show willingness for drastic action.
- A Less Ambitious Agreement: It is hard to image an agreement that gives more flexibility to States, but it is not necessarily impossible. Negotiators may try to temper down the Agreement to make it more appealing to the U.S. and to a President Trump. I think this is an unlikely scenario. Many already think this agreement is too weak and were unhappy with making it non-binding, a major U.S. demand under President Obama, let alone President Trump.[14] I also personally don’t believe a President Trump could agree to any scenario given whom he has surrounded himself with.
- Hitting Pause for 4 Years: In college, a professor once said, “Not every U.S. supported international agreement succeeds, but rarely does an international agreement succeed without the U.S.’s support.” Without the U.S., a tempered China and financially weaker E.U., it is hard to imagine where leadership comes from. This would look more like the Conference of the Parties from the 2000s when the Bush Administration had limited ambition. In four or eight years when a new administration comes in, U.S. commitment can pick up where it left off.
I am not sure which of these scenarios will occur but I am very curious to see how Marrakesh plays out, who the power brokers are and what will happen. As a staunch environmentalist and patriot, I hope that President Trump will do what the U.S. does best: take leadership and protect the world.
[1] http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/rnc-model-showed-trump-losing-231074
[2] http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2016/09/trump-global-warming-hoax
[3] http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-energy-idUSKCN0Y41ZP
[4] https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/us-china-joint-presidential-statement-climate-change
[5] http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/paris-climate-talks-tic-toc-216721
[6] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/04/paris-climate-change-agreement-enters-into-force
[7] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-37265541
[8] http://qz.com/832090/trump-has-vowed-to-yank-the-us-from-the-global-climate-pact-yes-he-can-do-it/
[9] http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-09-27/dc-appeals-court-set-to-hear-clean-power-plan-case
[10] http://www.rawstory.com/2016/11/what-president-trump-means-for-the-future-of-energy-and-climate/
[11] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/01/china-criticises-donald-trumps-plan-to-exit-paris-climate-deal
[12] https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-unpredictability-may-be-useful-against-enemies-but-its-deadly-to-allies/2016/07/25/37019d86-52a0-11e6-88eb-7dda4e2f2aec_story.html
[13] http://phys.org/news/2016-11-climate-authoritarian-china-experts.html
[14] http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/cop21-paris-deal-far-too-weak-to-prevent-devastating-climate-change-academics-warn-a6803096.html
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