by Ian Carlson Bailey

Abstract

This study examines how conservative talk radio influenced electoral behavior in the American South during the postwar era. Focusing on Carl McIntire’s “Twentieth Century Reformation Hour” program, I exploit exogenous variation in radio signal strength driven by topographical differences to identify causal effects on voting patterns. Using a novel dataset combining archival records with technical broadcasting data, I find that exposure to McIntire’s broadcasts significantly reduced support for Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kennedy in the 1960 election by 1.4 percentage points while increasing Republican candidate Richard Nixon’s vote share by 0.9 percentage points, with negligible effects on voter turnout. These effects were strongest in counties with the lowest proportions of Protestant residents, suggesting a ceiling effect in areas already predisposed toward conservatism. Furthermore, exposure to McIntire’s program increased the probability Democratic congressmen would vote against Kennedy’s 1962 Trade Expansion Act, demonstrating that partisan media influence extended beyond electoral outcomes to shape legislative behavior.

Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: D72; L82; N42
Keywords: Media Effects; Political Economy; Electoral Behavior; Conservative Radio; Partisan
Realignment

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