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The Impact of Originality in a Transitioning Movie Industry

By Jacob Graber-Lipperman

The thesis explores the increasing success of non-original films distributed through traditional theatrical releases, and asks whether new distributors, such as Netflix, may serve as better platforms for original content. A dataset incorporating the top 100 highest-grossing films at the domestic box office each year from 2000 to 2018, as well as a smaller subset including 82 titles distributed by Netlix, was utilized to investigate these issues. The results confirm non-original content has performed increasingly well over time for theatrical releases, especially within the past four years, while original content has performed poorly, especially during this recent time period. Additionally, the research suggests the stark difference in performance observed for non-original and original content in traditional distribution models may not appear for titles released through the newer streaming platforms. This paper thus hopes to motivate future study into the effect of streaming platforms on consumer purchasing behavior of films as new distribution technology within the movie industry continues to proliferate.

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Advisor: Professor Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: D1, D10, D19

Are Hollywood Stars Worth the Price Tag?

By TJ Cole and Chris Foote

We investigate the effect of a lead actor’s popularity on the profitability of films. Google search data is used as a proxy for actor popularity. We then investigate if lead actor’s popularity has a different effect on movies that are not part of a sequel or franchise, and those that belong to specific genres. The most profitable movies are franchises and sequels. Movies are more
profitable when they are action movies rated G or PG, although in certain circumstances a small number of horror movies and musicals can be hugely profitable. We find that across all groups
of movies our proxy for lead actor popularity has no significant effect on a film’s profitability.

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Advisor: Dr. Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: D2, D22

Questions?

Undergraduate Program Assistant
Matthew Eggleston
dus_asst@econ.duke.edu

Director of the Honors Program
Michelle P. Connolly
michelle.connolly@duke.edu