Drought Exposure and the Livestock Forage Disaster Program: Impacts on U.S. Cattle Populations
by Helena Kagan
Abstract
This paper examines the impacts of drought conditions, as defined by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), on U.S. beef cattle inventories between 2000 and 2023. Using a county-level panel dataset and fixed effects models that exploit geographical and time variation in drought exposure, we estimate how additional weeks of various drought severity levels affect annual cattle populations. We find that weeks spent in extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought significantly reduce herd sizes, with D3 associated with an 11-basis point decline and D4 with a 27-basis point decline per week. We assess the interaction between prolonged drought and participation in the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP), a federal disaster assistance program. Results show that LFP payments—especially the 4‐month and 5‐month tiers triggered by extended D3 or D4 drought—partially offset the effects of drought on herd retention. Ultimately, our analysis provides empirical evidence that persistent, high-severity drought reduces cattle inventories, but targeted disaster assistance can mitigate these impacts.
Professor Jeffrey DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle P. Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: Q18, Q54, Q12
Keywords: Drought, Livestock Forage Disaster Program, Cattle
Religious Identity and Climate-Sustainable Behavior
by Zixin “Finnie” Zhao
Abstract
What motivates individual action on climate change? The study focuses on the potential influence of religious identities. It employs a laboratory experiment to investigate how priming religious identity affects individuals’ donation behaviors to climate versus non-climate charities in a dictator game setting. In contrast with expectations, this study finds no significant evidence that an increase in religious identity salience influences religious individuals’ donation to climate, nor does it affect overall charitable donation behaviors, when demographic factors and perceptions about charity are controlled. Although failing to establish a causal relationship between religious identity and climate sustainable behavior or a linkage between religious identity and pro-social behavior, this research marks an innovative attempt to use experimental economics methodology to study factors that shape individual responses to the global climate challenge.
Professor Rachel Kranton, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: C91; D64; Q54; Z12
Reconstruction following Destruction: Entrepreneurship in the Aftermath of a Natural Disaster
by Richard Lombardo
Abstract
Entrepreneurship is thought to be the engine of growth in many developing countries. There is, however, a paucity of evidence on the role that entrepreneurship plays in rebuilding economic livelihoods both in the short and longer-term in the aftermath of a large-scale shock. This is an important gap in the literature given the increasing frequency and severity of shocks across the globe. This paper contributes to filling that gap by investigating the evolution of entrepreneurial success following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large-scale and unexpected shock. Using longitudinal survey data, the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), I find large declines in business ownership, profits, and capital for those most exposed to the tsunami that persisted through 10 years following the tsunami. These estimates can be given a causal interpretation under the plausible assumption that exposure to the tsunami can be treated as exogenous after taking into account individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity with fixed effects, including pre tsunami geographical features that drove exposure. Individuals living in rural areas and individuals with the least resources pre-tsunami fared the worst in terms of developing new businesses. However, the massive Build Back Better reconstruction program promoted entrepreneurship. Receipt of housing aid as part of that program is linked to an increase in the development of non-agricultural businesses that spurred gains in real profits.
Professor Duncan Thomas, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: D1; H84; L26; Q54
Short and Long-Term Impacts of a Large-Scale Natural Disaster on Individual Labor Outcomes: Evidence from the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
by Tony Sun
Abstract
Natural disasters are often highly disruptive to the livelihoods of impacted populations. This paper investigates the effects of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami on male wages and labor supply from its immediate aftermath into the long run. Using fixed effects models that account for individual-specific heterogeneity, I find evidence of significant real wage declines for workers from heavily damaged areas that persist beyond the short-term. This long-term wage effect contrasts with previous literature, particularly in the context of relatively less severe disasters. Male workers also increased their hours-of-work following the tsunami, which suggests reliance on labor markets to smooth income losses and shifted their labor towards less disrupted industries. Additionally, I document the heterogeneity of tsunami impact on wages and hours-of-work by birth cohort and education, as well as by industry and sector of employment.
Professor Duncan Thomas, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle P. Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: J2; J21; J30; O10; Q54
A perfect storm: The effect of natural disasters on child health
by Cheyenne Danielle Quijano
Abstract
Typhoons and their accompanying flooding have destructive effects, including an increase in the risk of waterborne disease in children. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, I explore the immediate to short-term effects of flooding as a result of Typhoon Labuyo on the incidence of diarrhea and acute respiratory infection in the Philippines by comparing children living in a flooded barangay (town) to children living just outside of the flooded area. I build on the existing literature by accounting for both incidence and intensity of the typhoon’s flooding in my model. I construct this new flooding measure using programming techniques and ArcGIS by manipulating data collected by the University of Maryland’s Global Flood Monitoring System. This data as well as health data from the 2013 Philippines National Demographic Health Surveys were collected the day after Typhoon Labuyo left the Philippines, providing a unique opportunity to explore the immediate impact of the typhoon on child health. Most of my results are insignificant, but subgroup analyses show that the effect of flooding on waterborne disease incidence is less impactful in the immediate term following a flood and more impactful in the medium-term. This is important, because understanding the detrimental health effects of flooding is of utmost importance, especially because climate change will only increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters.
Professor Erica M. Field, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle P. Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: I150, O120, O130, Q540
Global Warming and Obesity: The Effect of Ambient Temperature on BMI
By Aakash Jain
Previous research has shown that ambient temperature affects human metabolism and behavior. Inspired by these findings, this study examines the effect of lagged annual temperatures in the United States on average reported BMI. The results indicate that higher temperatures in the future will lead to increases in average BMI. A conservative estimate suggests that a 1 °C increase in temperature sustained for 10 years would result in a 0.15 unit increase in average BMI and an additional $15.5 billion in annual health care expenditure.
Advisor: Billy Pizer, Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: Q5, Q54, I1, I10
Unitization of Oil Reserves in Alaska and the Supply Elasticity of a Common Pool Resource
By Emily Bailey
Unitization, a common but not omnipresent policy that is lauded in both the economics and environmental world for its efficiency, attempts to solve the “tragedy of the commons” common pool failure of oil production by creating a system in which all those with interests in one reserve produce jointly and split profits accordingly. This paper empirically demonstrates what other researchers have hypothesized – that unitization reduces the elasticity of supply with respect to price. It then extrapolates to potential impacts this policy could have on the environment at large by forecasting a future production path based on the model from the previous section. Finally, it demonstrates how unitization could slow the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Advisor: Christopher Timmins | JEL Codes: Q38, Q48, Q54 | Tagged: Alaska, Climate Change, Oil, Oil Production, Oil Reserves, Unitization
