RadioWaves and Ballot Boxes: How Conservative Broadcasting Influenced Southern Electoral Behavior
by Ian Carlson Bailey
Abstract
This study examines how conservative talk radio influenced electoral behavior in the American South during the postwar era. Focusing on Carl McIntire’s “Twentieth Century Reformation Hour” program, I exploit exogenous variation in radio signal strength driven by topographical differences to identify causal effects on voting patterns. Using a novel dataset combining archival records with technical broadcasting data, I find that exposure to McIntire’s broadcasts significantly reduced support for Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kennedy in the 1960 election by 1.4 percentage points while increasing Republican candidate Richard Nixon’s vote share by 0.9 percentage points, with negligible effects on voter turnout. These effects were strongest in counties with the lowest proportions of Protestant residents, suggesting a ceiling effect in areas already predisposed toward conservatism. Furthermore, exposure to McIntire’s program increased the probability Democratic congressmen would vote against Kennedy’s 1962 Trade Expansion Act, demonstrating that partisan media influence extended beyond electoral outcomes to shape legislative behavior.
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: D72; L82; N42
Keywords: Media Effects; Political Economy; Electoral Behavior; Conservative Radio; Partisan
Realignment
Illuminating the Economic Costs of Conflict: A Night Light Analysis of the Sri Lankan Civil War
by Nicholas Kiran Wijesekera
Abstract
This paper investigates the economic consequences of the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009) by using event-based data on civilian and combatant fatalities in addition to night light imagery as a proxy for economic activity. By looking at regional economic activity across the island of Sri Lanka, this paper seeks to identify how violence led to declines or undershoots of economic activity in the areas in which it was most prevalent. The use of night light data gives a hyper-localized proxy measurement of this activity for each year of the war. The investigation finds that government and rebel deaths have strong, negative effects on economic activity, and that these effects spill over across time and space. Additionally, the manner in which civilian deaths occur is an important determinant of their subsequent economic impact. The paper offers new findings on the economic legacy of the Sri Lankan Civil War and extends existing work on the use of night light data to measure economic activity during conflict.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: H56, N45, O53
Economic Effects of the War in Donbas: Nightlights and the Ukrainian fight for freedom
Paper available to internal Duke affiliates only upon request.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: F51; H56; O52; N44
Deciphering Chinese Financing To African Countries
By Gwen Geng
The paper considers what attracts Chinese aid and Chinese investment to African countries and what kinds of Chinese financing projects are more likely to have unrevealed financing amount. The main database used is AidData: China’s Official Finance to Africa 2000-2012. It contains 2356 Chinese financing projects to 50 African countries. The results suggest that Chinese aid supports less developed economies, while Chinese investment favors countries with resource abundance and political conditions conducive to profit-making. The findings show that projects with unrevealed funding amounts tend to fall under investment and the government sector among other categories, raising questions on financing secrecy.
Advisors: Robert Garlick and Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: F13, F54, N47, N57, O24, R11, R15
Martin Bronfenbrenner: An Economist in the American Occupation of Japan
By Michael Potts
Martin Bronfenbrenner (1914-1997) was one of the last of a generation of generalist economists. His involvement in the U.S. Occupation of Japan changed his life and his career. This paper examines the mutually stabilizing relationship between his persona and his work in light of his experiences in Japan. Access to Bronfenbrenner’s previously restricted and unpublished autobiography archived in the Economists Papers Project at Duke University allows the author to reconstruct, from primary source material, some of the challenges faced by the individual, prewar-trained economist in navigating the postwar transformation of the economics discipline.
Advisor: E. Roy Weintraub | JEL Codes: B2, B31, N45, N95 | Tagged: U.S. Occupation of Japan, Economic Japanology: Martin Bronfenbrenner
Effects of Wages of Government Officials on Corruption in Developing Countries
By Vansh Muttreja
In a world where a majority of countries are suffering from corruption, it is important to study the causes of corruption and how it can be removed. There are many factors that affect corruption, and the one that this thesis focuses on is wages. The goal of this thesis is to understand the effects of wages of government officials on corruption levels in developing countries over time. The reason for looking particularly at developing countries is that corruption is higher and a bigger concern in such countries. The results of the analysis show that in order for developing countries to decrease corruption levels to those of the least 50 corrupt nations, there needs to be an increase of 422.51% in their government wages. The results are not suggestive for all developing countries because only a limited amount of developing countries were analyzed in this thesis. However, they do give us a glimpse into the negative relationship between corruption and wages.
Advisor: Edward Tower, Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: N4, O38
Do Political Connections Help Firms Gain Access to Bank Credit in Vietnam?
By David Brunnell
One of the major contributing factors to Vietnam’s macroeconomic instability has been the massive growth of credit inflows and its often inefficient allocations. Vietnam is in a state of economic transition from state-planned to open market based. The private sector has grown very rapidly but private firms’ demand for credit is still largely crowded out by the state sector. This paper specifically focuses on the use and impact of political connections by private firms to gain access to bank loans. More generally, this is one issue resulting from, and contributing to, the inequality of credit distribution across the Vietnam’s economy. Using individual company level data from 2007 to 2009 inclusive, this paper finds that exercising political connections increases a private firm’s probability of accessing a loan by 4.7%. In testing the effect of political connections on loan terms, this analysis found that firms with political connections also paid a price in the form of higher interest rates. Indeed private firms trying to access bank credit apparently pay a premium to their Vietnamese bankers in return for their privileged relationship. This suggests that the benefit of political connections translates into an extra financial advantage to both the lender and borrower.
Advisor: Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: N45
