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Category Archives: H

The Impact of Environmental Disamenities on Property Values: Evaluating the Municipal Fringe

By Ryan B. Hoecker

This paper analyzes the municipal fringe of cities in Eastern North Carolina between 2006-2016, and how the values of individual properties on the outskirts can fluctuate after they are
incorporated within a city. A large portion of the research process consisted of manually recreating annexation ordinances from scanned photocopies on ArcGIS, creating the first geographic archive of annexations in North Carolina compatible with digital software. As environmental nuisances, such as landfills and hazardous waste sites, are often located on town borders, this study pays specific attention to how their presence affects the change in property values before and after annexation. Results show that incorporation brings with it higher property values, and that the impact of annexation is greater in the presence of nuisances that threaten water quality for private wells.

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Advisor: Christopher Timmins | JEL Codes: H79, Q53, R31

Japan’s Furusato Nouzei (Hometown Tax): Which Areas Get How Much, and Is It Really Working?

by Kay Hasegawa

Abstract 

In 2015, 7,260,093 individuals donated a total of ¥165,291,021,000 (approximately 1.5 billion USD total) to 1,741 municipalities in Japan using the furusato nouzei system (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications). In this paper, I examine this system in two ways. Firstly, I predict the amount of donations each municipality receives based on a number of explanatory variables. Secondly, I run a 2SLS difference-in-differences regression to see if the tax was successfully redistributing wealth from city centers to rural areas, using an increase in municipal-level expenditure as a proxy.

Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: H2, H21, H27

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Structural Estimation of FCC Bidder Valuation

By Renhao Tan, Zachary Lim, and Jackie Xiao

We modify a method introduced in Fox and Bajari (2013) which structurally estimates the deterministic component of bidder valuations in FCC spectrum auctions based on a pairwise stability condition: two bidders cannot exchange two licenses in a way that increases the sum of their valuations, and we apply it to C block auctions 5, 22, 35 and 58. Our modifications improve the fit of the Fox and Bajari (2013)’s estimator especially in similar auctions involving big bidders. We find that there is evidence of significant “cross-auction” complementaries between licenses sold in a particular auction and those already owned by these endowed bidders.

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Advisor: Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: D44, D45, H82, L82

Medicare’s Prospective Payment System: Do Differences in the Reimbursement Rate Affect Quantity of Care Delivered and Hospital Billing Practices?

By Russell Hollis

When the government changes Medicare policy, payment structures often accommodate the change through lowering reimbursement rates. Changes in reimbursements raise the question of what effect changes have on patient care. Using data sets from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services, I examine the diagnosis of major replacement or reattachment of the lower extremity and how the length of stay for patients responds to changing reimbursement rates. I extend my investigation of price incentives to monitor fraudulent coding by hospitals. In a sample of over 470,000 patients in 2,696 hospitals for fiscal year 2012, I find that a 1% increase in reimbursement leads to a .007% increase in length of stay for DRG 470 (without complications) patients and a .057% percent increase for DRG 469 (with complications) patients. I then find that a 10% decrease in reimbursement for DRG 470 or one percent increase for DRG 469 leads to a .0011 increase in fraction of DRG 469 patients in a particular hospital. Lastly, I comment on these results, which point to the evidence of price incentives in quantity of care an the possibility of “upcoding”1.

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Advisor: Allan Collard-Wexler, Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: H50, H51, I11, I13, I18 | Tagged: Diagnosis Related Group, Length of Stay, Medicare, Reimbursement, “Upcoding”

Tax Evasion and Tax Morale in Latin America

By Sofia Becerra Taschetti

Tax evasion throughout the world is widely endured, but not widely understood. The decision making process of the taxpayer may include many concerns outside of the monetary payoffs. The tax compliance decision considers social norms and social sanctions in addition to deterrence levels. The goal of this paper is to illuminate some of the social norms and factors that affect tax morale, since tax morale in turn drives part of compliance. An empirical study comparing tax morale in 18 Latin American countries finds that, social factors like perception of evasion by peers, as well as government trust and approval, are significant determinants of tax morale. Moreover, culture also plays a role. However, its role is not nearly as large as believed, and cannot be explained much of the variance across countries. Compliance is partly explained by tax moral, which is partly explained by culture. Tax morale will drive higher compliance all else equal, but compliance is also a function of deterrence, and both factors work in a feedback loop. Social norms and culture develop through assimilation of deterrence mechanism over time and so, culture need not be deterministic since it mutable.

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Advisor: Michelle Connolly, Michael Munger | JEL Codes: H2, H26, H31 | Tagged: Argentina, Chile, Latin America, Tax Evasion, Tax Morale

Federal Outlays: The Effect of the President and Electoral Politics

By Michael Ge

The effect of congressional electoral politics on pork barrel spending is a well -studied phenomenon.
Likewise, presidential politics are receiving increased scrutiny. This paper aims to expand the
literature relating presidential electoral politics and the geographic distribution of federal funds on a
county level. It asks whether there is increased spending in the electorally-important counties in the
electorally-important states during and after a presidential elections. Results show that there are in
fact links between electoral importance and federal funding levels. However, results do not show a
trend in those results over different elections.

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Advisor: Marjorie McElroy, Michael Munger | JEL Codes: A12, D72, E62, H50, H61 | Tagged: Distributive Politics, Pork Barrel, Presidential Elections, US Federal Budget

Neighborhood Effects and School Performance: The Impact of Public Housing Demolitions on Children in North Carolina

By Rebecca Aqostino

This study explores how the demolitions of particularly distressed public housing units, through the Home Ownership for People Everywhere (HOPE VI) grants program, have affected academic outcomes for children in adjacent neighborhoods in Durham and Wilmington, North Carolina. I measure neighborhood-level changes and individual effects through regression analysis. All students in demolition communities are compared to those in control communities: census blocks in the same cities with public housing units that were not demolished. Those in the Durham experiment community experienced statistically significant gains when compared to those in the control communities; the effect is insignificant in Wilmington.

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Advisor: Charles Becker, Helen Ladd, Marjorie McElroy | JEL Codes: C23, H41, H52, H75, I24, I25 | Tagged: Achievement, Demolitions, Distressed Housing, HOPE VI, Neighborhood Effects, Public Housing, School Performance

The Determinants and Social Benefit of Student Summer Activity: An Analysis of the Determinants of Summer Activity Participation by Elementary and Secondary Students, and the Resulting Social Benefit of Summer Activity Participation on Crime

By Elad Gross

Using data from 1996, this study first identifies the socioeconomic determinants of a child’s participation in an organized summer activity. Models are produced for summer activity in general and for different types of summer activities. The results indicate the importance of caregiver supervisory capability in choosing whether to send a child to a summer program. In the second stage of the project, actual state values of summer activity participation are related to state crime statistics, controlling for the state demographic profile. The results indicate that participation in summer activity is related to a reduction in crime rates under certain conditions.

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Advisor: Peter Arcidiacono  |  JEL Codes: H75

Assessing Abortion The Impact of Legalized Abortion on the Welfare of American Women

by Katherine N. Fisher

Abstract 

By examining data on educational attainment, workforce participation, and marriage market bargaining power, this paper assesses the impact of legalized abortion on women’s welfare. Access to abortion is found to increase education levels and employment rates. However, such access may also increase rates of sexually transmitted disease and disadvantage women in the marriage markets. Although negative implications are established, they do not appear strong enough to counteract the positive impacts of abortion access. Legalized abortion is a highly demanded public good, and seems to serve in the best interest of women by empowering them through choice.

Professor Marjorie McElroy, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: H3, I14, K4

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Federal Excise Taxes and the U.S. Beer Industry’s Three-Tier System of Distribution: Do beer manufacturers benefit from federal excise taxes?

by Ankur Sunildatta Fadia

Abstract 

On January 1, 1991, the federal excise tax on beer increased from $9 to $18 per barrel. Young & Bielinska-Kwapisz (2002) discovered that this $9 per barrel tax increase led to a $15-$17 per barrel increase in the end-of-sale price of beer. No study has yet explained why the beer tax increase was overshifted as it passed through the three tiers, namely manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. I hypothesize that manufacturers cooperate under focal point pricing and pass beer tax increases to distributors and retailers with a markup. Applying Taubman’s (1965) model to the beer industry, I show that manufacturers could have theoretically passed the 1991 beer tax increase with a markup. In support of Taubman’s (1965) model, personal interviews and e-mail exchanges with beer distributors revealed that manufacturers can pass beer tax increases with a markup to both distributors and retailers. PPI and CPI data show that manufacturers and retailers substantially marked up prices to distributors and consumers, respectively. Macrobrewer profit data establish that Anheuser-Busch and Miller’s real net profits between 1990 and 1991 increased, in 1982-84 dollars, by $69 and $3 million, respectively, while Coors’s real net profits decreased by $11 million due to rising costs during its expansion to national production. Since Anheuser-Busch and Miller’s output did not significantly increase but their costs did increase from 1990 to 1991, macrobrewers’ profits could have only increased due to rising prices. Moreover, in a leader-follower game it is expected that profits for the dominant firm, Anheuser-Busch, increase more than profits for fringe firms, Miller and Coors. I accept my hypothesis that manufacturers were responsible for overshifting, and as a whole benefited from, the 1991 beer tax increase.

Professor Phillip J. Cook, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: H2, H21,

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michelle.connolly@duke.edu