The Impact of Conflict on Economic Activity: Night Lights and the Bosnian Civil War
by Stephanie Dodd
Abstract
The tendency of violent conflict to suppress economic activity is well documented in the civil war economic literature. However, differential consequences resulting from distinct characteristics of conflicts have not been rigorously studied. Utilizing new conflict data on the 1992-1995 Bosnian civil war from Becker, Devine, Dogo, and Margolin (2018) and DSMP-OLS night light data as a proxy for economic activity, this paper investigates the disparate economic impacts that different types of conflict have on Bosnia’s municipalities.
This investigation first uses data from other Yugoslavian countries to impute pre-war night light values for conflict-affected Bosnian municipalities. Next, a spatial autocorrelation model with fixed effects is used to determine if and how the occurrence of different types of violence vary in their implications for economic activity. This analysis finds that the five types of warfare identified in the context of the Bosnian Civil war have different impacts on night lights and economic activity.
Professor Charles Becker,Faculty Advisor
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: F52, H56, O52
Evaluating the Motivation and Feasibility Theory in Predicting the Onset and Severity of Civil Conflict
By Ishita Chordia
This paper looks at 187 countries from 1960-2004 and explores the economic indicators of the onset and the severity of civil conflicts, where civil conflicts are described as small clashes that result in 25 or more battle deaths per conflict. For conflict onset, I test a model that uses the Motivation Theory to predict when a conflict will begin while for conflict severity. I test a model that uses the Feasibility Theory to predict how severe a conflict will become. In the final section, I reverse the models and test the ability of the Motivation Theory to predict conflict severity and the ability of the Feasibility Theory to predict conflict onset. I find that the Motivation Theory performs ber at predicting both conflict onset and severity.
Advisors: Kent Kimbrough, Bahar Leventoglu, Duncan Thomas
JEL Codes: F51, F52, O57 | Tagged: Conflict, Feasibility, International Security, Motivation, Peace
