IMF Conditionality and Private Credit Development in Developing Countries: The Role of Program Intensity and Composition
by Mahmoud Tarek Zaki Abstract This thesis investigates whether the composition of IMF binding conditionality matters more than its overall intensity for domestic private credit in developing countries. Using a panel of 115 countries from 1990 to 2019 and a three-equation instrumental-variables framework, the analysis disaggregates binding conditionality into prior actions, quantitative performance criteria, and […]
Institutional Permeability and Cross-Border Transmission: Evidence from Uzbekistan’s 2017 Liberalization
by Aaron Williams Lam Abstract While standard diffusion frameworks predict that liberalizing reforms generate positive spillovers in geographically proximate regions, borders are not frictionless membranes. Even observable connectivity may fail to translate into cross-border economic co-movement when institutional frictions govern whether interaction activates transmission. Using Uzbekistan’s 2017 exchange-rate unification as a natural experiment, this paper […]
Vertical Specialization, Trade Diversion, and the 2018-2019 US-China Trade War
by Mariam Hasina Gulamhusein Abstract This thesis examines the impacts of the 2018–2019 US-China trade war, focusing on trade diversion and changes in vertical specialization (VS). Using US imports data and OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) data, this thesis estimates country-level tariff elasticities and changes in VS ratios in response to the Section 301 […]
Does Geopolitical Tension Affect Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment?
by Aamer Husain Abstract This paper examines whether geopolitical tensions affect bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). Using global news event data, I construct a novel dyadic measure of geopolitical distance and estimate a panel model with country-year and dyad fixed effects across 39,700 dyad-year observations from 2016 to 2023. Geopolitical distance reduces FDI positions by […]
Framing the Frontlines: Media Sentiment, Geography, and Global Market Reactions to the Russo-Ukrainian War
by Christopher Nash Boykin Abstract This paper examines whether media sentiment about the Russo–Ukrainian war predicts crosscountry equity returns and whether the effect varies with structural exposure to the conflict. Using GDELT data, I construct an audience-weighted, source-demeaned tone measure aligned to countryspecific market close times. Two-way fixed effects estimates across 17 NATO countries show […]
In the Shadow of War: Assessing Conflict-Driven Disruptions in the Kyrgyzstan-Russia Labor Pipeline via a Gradient Boosting Approach to Nowcasting
by Michelle K. Schultze Abstract Kyrgyzstan, where remittances made up 30% of GDP before the Russo-Ukraine war, is central to understanding Russia–Central Asia labor migration. Wartime trends, however, are obscured by informality and limited Russian data. This study introduces a novel “nowcasting” method using XGBoost and Yandex Wordstat, a Russian search query database largely overlooked […]
Reel Representation: The Economic Impact of Gender on Bollywood Box Office Revenue
by Sidharth Ravi Abstract The Hindi Film Industry, known as Bollywood, is seen as a gatekeeper of Indian culture. Annually thousands of films are produced, half a million workers across India are employed and millions in revenue is created. Although Bollywood has ensured increased employment and wage opportunities for women on and off screen, the […]
How Foreign Direct Investment Impacts Domestic Productivity: The Case of Vietnam
by Minh Phuong Nguyen Hoang Abstract Foreign direct investment (FDI) has long been known as a vital driver of economic growth in many developing countries by providing capital boosts, generating employment, and introducing advanced technology. This paper focuses on a more long-term economic impact of FDI — the productivity spillover effect — in the specific […]
Economic Effects of the War in Donbas: Nightlights and the Ukrainian fight for freedom
Paper available to internal Duke affiliates only upon request. Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor JEL Codes: F51; H56; O52; N44 View Data
The Impact of Conflict on Economic Activity: Night Lights and the Bosnian Civil War
by Stephanie Dodd Abstract The tendency of violent conflict to suppress economic activity is well documented in the civil war economic literature. However, differential consequences resulting from distinct characteristics of conflicts have not been rigorously studied. Utilizing new conflict data on the 1992-1995 Bosnian civil war from Becker, Devine, Dogo, and Margolin (2018) and DSMP-OLS […]
