Economic Effects of the War in Donbas: Nightlights and the Ukrainian fight for freedom
By Riad Kanj
Abstract
The conflict in Eastern Ukraine began in 2014, and it has now turned into a full-scale
invasion. The separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk have remained isolated for the last eight
years while fighting between rebels and the Ukrainian government has continued at a low but
regular level since then. Previous studies analyze the impact of the war in Donbas on the
economic situation in the region, such as the industry and GRP growth. However, this research
uses data solely from the initial part of the conflict (2014-2016) and does not take into account the
severity of the fighting. By using both the DMSP-OLS and VIIRS data as an approximation of
economic activity in addition to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) casualty numbers,
the analysis explores the effects of violent conflict on economic activity over a longer period of
the Donbas war.
This paper uses both yearly and monthly satellite data in analyzing the general progression
of the conflict in addition to the monthly progression. Furthermore, nightlight data of Ukrainian
municipalities outside of Donbas are used in computing the Donbas region’s nightlight data across
several years. The UCDP data for civilian and battle-related casualties are used separately to show
the causal effects of the different fighting severities. A Two-Stage Least Squares regression is
used to see the effects of battle severity on economic outcomes.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL classification: F51; H56; O52; N44
Evaluating the Motivation and Feasibility Theory in Predicting the Onset and Severity of Civil Conflict
By Ishita Chordia
This paper looks at 187 countries from 1960-2004 and explores the economic indicators of the onset and the severity of civil conflicts, where civil conflicts are described as small clashes that result in 25 or more battle deaths per conflict. For conflict onset, I test a model that uses the Motivation Theory to predict when a conflict will begin while for conflict severity. I test a model that uses the Feasibility Theory to predict how severe a conflict will become. In the final section, I reverse the models and test the ability of the Motivation Theory to predict conflict severity and the ability of the Feasibility Theory to predict conflict onset. I find that the Motivation Theory performs ber at predicting both conflict onset and severity.
JEL Codes: F51, F52, O57 | Tagged: Conflict, Feasibility, International Security, Motivation, Peace
