Inflation Expectations over the Life Cycle under Rational Inattention
by Jessica Schultz Abstract This paper explores how people track inflation over their lifetimes while facing tradeoffs between attention and certainty. It first employs a flexible modification of the Recursive Least Squares Learning approach from Malmendier and Nagel (MN) (2016) to find that households place weight on each inflation observation in a hump-shaped pattern over […]
Immigrant Workers in a Changing Labor Environment: A study on how technology is reshaping immigrant earnings
By Grace Peterson This research determines how automation affects immigrant wages in the US and how closely this impact follows the skills-biased technical change (SBTC) hypothesis. The present study addresses this question using American Community Survey (ACS) data from 2012 to 2016 and a job automation probability index to explain technological change. This research leverages […]
Multi-Variable Regression Analysis For the Prediction of Equity Returns Over 10 Year Periods
by Arjun Singh Jaswal Abstract The use of 5 variables is examined in order to forecast ex ante the total return from holding equities over 10 year periods. The 5 variables are a moving average of Campbell and Shiller’s P/E ratio, Robert B. Barsky and J. Bradford De Long’s log price predictor, a function of […]
Assessing the Performance of Actively Managed Global Funds
by Luyuan Fan Abstract It has been widely debated whether managed funds outperform their index counterparts. Many scholars have carried out empirical testing for U.S. managed funds, but few have examined global funds. This study compares the total returns and risk-adjusted returns for 29 largest global funds with that of a basket of Vanguard indexes […]
The Value of Unsolicited Buy Recommendations to Investors: Can Investors Trade Profitably Based on E-mail Spam?
by Angela Nicole Aldrich Abstract This paper explores the possibility of trading profitably based on information contained in email spam messages advertising certain stock trades. Through careful analysis of a basket of sixteen stocks that were recommended to my advisor and myself via unsolicited email spam, I conclude that the most effective way for investors […]
