RadioWaves and Ballot Boxes: How Conservative Broadcasting Influenced Southern Electoral Behavior
by Ian Carlson Bailey
Abstract
This study examines how conservative talk radio influenced electoral behavior in the American South during the postwar era. Focusing on Carl McIntire’s “Twentieth Century Reformation Hour” program, I exploit exogenous variation in radio signal strength driven by topographical differences to identify causal effects on voting patterns. Using a novel dataset combining archival records with technical broadcasting data, I find that exposure to McIntire’s broadcasts significantly reduced support for Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kennedy in the 1960 election by 1.4 percentage points while increasing Republican candidate Richard Nixon’s vote share by 0.9 percentage points, with negligible effects on voter turnout. These effects were strongest in counties with the lowest proportions of Protestant residents, suggesting a ceiling effect in areas already predisposed toward conservatism. Furthermore, exposure to McIntire’s program increased the probability Democratic congressmen would vote against Kennedy’s 1962 Trade Expansion Act, demonstrating that partisan media influence extended beyond electoral outcomes to shape legislative behavior.
Professor Grace Kim, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: D72; L82; N42
Keywords: Media Effects; Political Economy; Electoral Behavior; Conservative Radio; Partisan
Realignment
Splitting Hairs or Splitting Regions: The Differential Democratic Impacts of Splitting ZIP Codes vs. Counties During Redistricting
by Jacob Hervey
Abstract
In light of the Supreme Court’s holding in Gill v. Whitford, judicially-enforceable gerrymandering metrics must focus on democratic harms to individual citizens, instead of state-wide measures of proportionality. Previous literature has suggested that gerrymandering metrics should focus on the extent to which congressional districts split preexisting geographic boundaries (namely, ZIP codes and counties). This work compares the differential democratic harms caused by ZIP code versus county splitting during redistricting across two domains. First, we exploit the changes during the 2010 redistricting process to construct a difference-in-difference model that captures changes in voters’ political knowledge as a function of their exposure to geographic splitting. Second, we predict district-level electoral outcomes from 2002-2018 based upon the extent of ZIP code and county splitting. Our results indicate that ZIP code and county splitting cause more significant democratic harms for different outcomes of interest. While county splitting has more negative consequences for constituents’ political knowledge,ZIP code splitting is more detrimental with regards to voter turnout.
Professor Patrick Bayer, Faculty Advisor
Professor Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: D72, K16, H11
Faith in the Future and Social Conflict: Economic Growth as a Mechanism for Political Stabilization
By Alexander Bloedel
This paper studies the mechanisms that link sociopolitical conflict and (expectations about) economic prosperity. Motivated by a large body of empirical and historical work on the correlation between economic development and democratization, I develop a game-theoretic model of economic growth with political economy constraints. In an economy where low income agents are credit constrained, rapid and robust economic growth leads to increasing inequality early on, but provides the means to mitigate civil conflict when inequality becomes suciently large. The rate and persistence of growth similarly determines the stability of extant political institutions and the ability to transition from dictatorship to democracy.
Advisor: Curtis Taylor | JEL Codes: D72, D74, O11, O43 | Tagged: Civil Conflict, Economic Growth, Expectations, Political Economy
Determining the Effect of Personal and Familial Wealth on Congressional and State Legislative Election Outcomes
By Anisha Khemlani
This paper seeks to further the debate on money and politics. Specifically, it focuses on the effect of wealth on election outcomes. The goal is to determine the relationship between personal wealth and voter margins of congressional elections and the effect of familial wealth on state legislative elections. A regression analysis of the congressional data suggests that personal wealth does not significantly impact the voter margins of successful candidates. However, a probit analysis of state legislative data suggests that familial wealth can increases candidate’s chances of winning, all else equal. This implies that at the state level, wealth could provide a candidate with advantages, suggesting that money and power may go hand in hand.
Advisor: Nicholas Carnes | JEL Codes: D3, D72 | Tagged: Elections, Personal Wealth, Voter Margin
How Do Campaign Contributions from Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Influence Senators’ Policy Decisions?
by Ashlyn Hankey
Abstract
This paper examines the influence of the main interest groups in the debate over amending Section 936 of bill HR 4210, a bill that grants tax credits to American manufacturers with sites in Puerto Rico. The amendment proposed to place stipulations on the pharmaceutical manufacturers’ eligibility for the credit to lower the cost of prescription drugs. Using the Logit model, the effects of each of these groups is seen on the voting behavior of the senators of the 101st Congress on this bill. The study concluded that the main factor affecting voting outcomes for senators on Section 936 was party affiliation.
Professor Edward Tower, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: D72,
Congressional Voting on the Secure Fence Act of 2006: Political Posturing Overshadows Campaign Contributions
by Simon Alexander Blank
Abstract
This study examines the determinants of voting on the 2006 Secure Fence Act in the U.S. House of Representatives. First, a simultaneous probit-Tobit model is used to account for the endogenous nature of campaign contributions. It reveals five significant determinants of campaign contributions from Agribusiness—political ideology, membership on the Committee on Agriculture, Mexican border geography, urbanization, and seniority—only to find that industry donations were not levered to affect Congress members’ votes. A multivariate probit analysis reveals that political posturing, constituent interests, political ideology, environmentalism, and district racial composition all helped determine representatives’ votes on the bill.
Professor Ed Tower, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: D72,
