Home » Articles posted by Erin Seong (Page 3)
Author Archives: Erin Seong
Structural Estimation of FCC Bidder Valuation
By Renhao Tan, Zachary Lim, and Jackie Xiao
We modify a method introduced in Fox and Bajari (2013) which structurally estimates the deterministic component of bidder valuations in FCC spectrum auctions based on a pairwise stability condition: two bidders cannot exchange two licenses in a way that increases the sum of their valuations, and we apply it to C block auctions 5, 22, 35 and 58. Our modifications improve the fit of the Fox and Bajari (2013)’s estimator especially in similar auctions involving big bidders. We find that there is evidence of significant “cross-auction” complementaries between licenses sold in a particular auction and those already owned by these endowed bidders.
Advisor: Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: D44, D45, H82, L82
Determinants of NFL Spread Pricing: Incorporation of Google Search Data Over the Course of the Gambling Week
By Shiv S. Gidumal and Roland D. Muench
We investigate the factors that Las Vegas incorporates into opening spreads for NFL matchups. We include a novel proxy measure for gambler sentiment constructed with Google search data. We then investigate whether changes in this proxy are reflected in the closing spreads for NFL matchups and find that they are incorporated. We also reveal bettors’ preferences for highly visible teams and teams performing well recently. Lastly, we show that the factors that matter in the actual outcome of a game are home field advantage, average points scored for and against, and, most interestingly, our proxy measure for gambler sentiment.
Advisor: Michelle Connolly, Emma Rasiel | JEL Codes: G14, G17
Long-Term Contracts and Predicting Performance in MLB
By Drew Goldstein
In this paper, I examine whether MLB teams are capable of using players’ past performance data to sufficiently estimate future production. The study is motivated by the recent trend by which teams have increasingly signed long-term contracts that lock in players for up to ten seasons into the future. To test this question, I define the “initial years” of a player’s career to represent a team’s available information at the time of determining whether or not to sign him. By analyzing the predictive ability these initial years have on subsequent performance statistics, I am looking to answer whether—and if so for how long—teams can justify signing players to long-term contracts with guaranteed salaries. I also compare the results of the predictive tests with actual contract data to determine the per-dollar returns on these deals for different types of contracts.
I conclude from my analysis that a player’s past performance does in fact provide sufficient insight into his future value for teams to make informed decisions at the time of signing a contract. Teams are able to better predict the future production of potential signees by examining their consistency and relative value in the initial seasons of their careers. Furthermore, the results from examining the contract data coincide with my findings on performance; teams and players arrive at salaries for long-term contracts that divide the future risk between the two parties. The returns on long-term contracts are thus demonstrated to be higher than for short-term contracts, as the overall value of longer deals compensates teams for the associated higher annual salaries.
Advisors: Peter Arcidiacono, Michelle Connolly, Duncan Thomas | JEL Codes: Z2, Z22, Z23
Hedonic Modeling of Singapore’s Resale Public Housing Market
By Jiakun Xu
The large-scale, high-density public housing market in Singapore invites hedonic analysis, due to its homogeneity in structure quality across all neighborhoods. This paper builds a time-dummy hedonic regression model incorporating geospatial features for a large dataset of resale transactions from 2000 to 2016. Significant anticipatory price effects are found for new subway stations, which peak at two years before station opening. A hedonic price index suggests that affordability was a problem during the sustained period of property price inflation from 2011 to 2013. District-level analysis shows evidence of increasing rent gradients, wealth disparities, and “lottery” effects in asset growth. I discuss the potential contributions of these insights to wealth and equity considerations in public policy
design.
Data available upon request. Email dus_asst@econ.duke.edu
Advisors: Charles Becker, Tracy Falba | JEL Codes: C21, R3, R31, R38, R41
The Impact of Fossil Fuel Prices on Alternative Energy Stocks
By Roman Milioti
The purpose of this paper is to determine if fossil fuel price fluctuations can influence the price alternative energy stock valuations. Employing a Lag Augmented VAR analysis, the research analyzes how natural gas and WTI oil prices impact the price of an alternative energy index. The analysis reveals that neither the price of natural gas nor the price of WTI have a statistically significant positive impact of the price of the alternative energy index. The results are attributed to natural gas and alternative energy acting as both substitutes and compliments given renewable
energy intermittency.
Advisor: Gale Boyd, Kent Kimbrough | JEL Codes: G12, Q42
