by Tyler Hayden Ratcliffe
Abstract
As large-scale solar project development in the United States has taken off over the past two decades, so too has opposition at the state and local level. Counties, which predominantly hold zoning and siting authority over solar development, have increasingly adopted restrictive ordinances that hinder or outright prevent further activity. Prior research has identified the significant negative effects of county-level ordinances on solar development capacity and investment, as well as a range of drivers behind individual-level opposition to large-scale solar. This paper builds on these findings by considering drivers of behavior at the county-level, studying county characteristics that may be informed by individual attitudes and their relationship to restrictive ordinance outcomes.
Using a cross-sectional model, common factors between restrictive counties are identified at a given point in time, with significant positive relationships identified between operational large-scale solar projects, pending large-scale solar projects, median home value, and restriction outcomes, as well as a negative relationship with population density. A panel fixed effects model is then applied to examine how changes in these and other factors relate to restrictiveness over time, finding positive relationships with operational large-scale solar capacity and population density, and an especially strong positive relationship with the restrictiveness of a county’s direct neighbors. These findings provide econometric backing to anecdotal evidence from large-scale solar developers, including emerging concerns around diffusion of restrictive policies across county borders, and identify directions for industry-relevant research going forward.
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Jeffrey DeSimone, Faculty Advisor
