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Vol. XVI, Spring 2004

This volume is the sixteenth annual publication of the Duke Journal of Economics. The Journal is a showcase for outstanding research in economics by Duke undergraduates.

We dedicate this issue to Professor Juanita Kreps. As Professor Robert Clark writes in his biography of her, which we reproduce in this volume, “Juanita Kreps has been one of the leading economists and policymakers of the last three decades. Her illustrious career is notable for its many successes and great diversity of experiences. Juanita has been a scholar, academic administrator, government policymaker, business leader and community leader. In each of these roles, she has attained the highest levels and left her mark on society.” We are grateful for her leadership in the economics department and in the Duke administration for many years.

Thanks go to Professors Robert Clark and Allen Kelley for their recollections of Juanita and to Profiles in Gerontology for permitting us to reprint Clark’s bibliography.

We congratulate the authors of the papers presented in this issue. Many of these papers began as undergraduate honors theses.

Duke undergraduates have also copublished in other scholarly journals. Joshua Phillips Duke BA 2002, Omer Gokcekus and Ed Tower published “School Choice: Money, Race and Congressional Voting on Vouchers,” in the spring 2004 issue of Public Choice. Ken Reinker, Duke BS 2003, and Ed Tower drew from Reinker’s honors thesis to publish “Predicting Equity Returns of 37 Countries: Tweaking the Gordon Formula,” in the Summer 2004 issue of the Journal of Investing and “Index Fundamentalism Revisited,” in the Summer 2004 issue of the Journal of Portfolio Management; Gretchen A. Phillips, Duke BS 2000, and Ed Tower drew on her honors thesis to publish “Labor PAC Contributions and NAFTA Legislators: Rhetoric or Retribution?” in Michael Plummer (ed.) Empirical Methods in International Trade: Essays in Honor of Mordechai E. Kireinin, Edward Elgar, 2004.

The Journal would like to thank the Allen Starling Johnson,Jr.Endowment Fund and donors to the Havrilesky Fund as well as members of the staff of the Duke University Economics Department and in particular Molly Brown, who put the journal on line, Kevin Campbell, Jennifer Socey, Masibuwa MacFarlane, and Ryan Millner.

Charles Becker & Ed Tower, Faculty Advisors to the Journal

Articles

Das Maynard Keynes Problem: Rethinking Rationality by Ailian Gan

Compensation, Free Agency, and Future Performance in the NFL: A Market Analysis by Wagish Bhartiya

Diversifying Among the Most Concrete of Assets; An Analysis of the Optimal Direct U.S. Real Estate Investment Portfolio by Paul J. Izzo

The Euro’s Impact on France’s Trade with Adopting and Non-adopting Countries by Julie DeRoo

Horizontal Licensing: A Strategic Tool for Joint Profit Maximization by Lauren Randa Hasson

High Frequency Autocorrelation in the Returns of the SPY and the QQQ by Scott Davis

Bolívar Distorted: The Effects of Exchange Controls on the Venezuelan Economy Or “Perhaps Chávez spent too much time reading Machiavelli and not enough time reading Adam Smith” by Erin Fletcher

Essays

Does Robert Barro’s Model Forecast Growth? by Michael Suher

Book Reviews

The Roaring Nineties: Seeds of Destruction” by Joseph Stiglitz, reviewed by Michelle Robinson

Nothing Is Sacred: Economic Ideas for the New Millennium By Robert J. Barro, reviewed by Federico Siviero (Ca’ Foscari University)