S2D – How PoS Shapes Portfolio Strategy

Chairs: 
Wenqiong Xue, PhD (Boehringer Ingelheim)
Dooti Roy, PhD (Boehringer Ingelheim)

Abstract: In the dynamic landscape of pharmaceutical development, the Probability of Success (PoS) has emerged as a pivotal metric for guiding portfolio strategy. This session explores how statistical PoS modeling transcends traditional benchmarks and subjective assessments to become a robust, evidence-based tool for strategic decision-making. We examine the integration of PoS into clinical development planning, highlighting its role in scenario simulations, go/no-go criteria, and resource allocation across therapeutic areas. We demonstrate how PoS modeling can influence trial design, dose selection, and launch timing. We also discuss methodological challenges, including endpoint alignment between phases, incorporation of safety and tolerability data, and harmonization across functions to avoid conflicting PoS estimates. Through case studies and quantitative frameworks, this session will showcase how PoS not only informs individual asset decisions but also serves as a strategic compass for portfolio steering.

Speaker: Mitchell Thomann, PhD (Boehringer Ingelheim)
Title: To be announced
Abstract: To be announced