Over his career, Shaquille O’Neal made about 53% of his free throws. Assume his probability of making a single free throw is 53%. Suppose Shaq shot a round of 20 free throws and you’re told he made 15 of them.

- What is the likelihood he made the first free throw, given that he made 15?
- What is the likelihood he made at least 1 out of his first 5 free throws, given that he made 15?