Lt Gen (R) Dave Deptula on “Election Implications for Defense: The Rendezvous”

If you are wondering what the elections mean for national defense, today’s post will give you an informed viewpoint on that vital issue.  Lawfire^® readers may recall that retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula spoke at our 28th Annual National Security Law conference (see here). 

Last week General Deptula talked about the implications of the election for defense deterrence on the Aerospace Advantage, the podcast of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies where he is dean.  He shared a copy of his remarks as prepared for broadcast with me and gave me his permission to relate his views with you.  I think you’ll be interested in hearing his frank perspective.

Former Air Force fighter pilot Heather (“Lucky”) Penney, who is a Senior Resident Fellow at the Mitchell Institute and the host of the Aerospace Advantage podcast, began the broadcast with these observations:

Elections always matter, especially given the national security issues currently in play. The world is an incredibly dangerous place: Russia continues its war in Ukraine, China is pressing hard in the Pacific, Iran continues to destabilize the Middle East and shares nuclear ambitions with North Korea, plus terrorist organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis pose serious challenges.

F-35 Photo: US Air Force

On top of this, the Air Force is undergoing a historic level of modernization—ranging from two legs of the triad to the B-21, F-35, CCA, KC-46, T-7, and more.

Major questions loom for programs like NGAD [Next Generation Air Dominance] and NGAS [Next Generation Air-refueling System] and things not simple in the Space Force either, as leaders in that service seek to build a new set of capabilities given that the domain is now contested. Mission migration from the air to space also continues, especially or things like ISR. The vector set by Donald Trump and members of Congress in the coming years will shape options available to leaders for decades into the future.

Heather Penney: Gen Deptula, you met with senior military and political officials in Ukraine just two weeks ago—your second trip. Thoughts on this? Advice to Donald Trump?

General Deptula:

• The war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine. US and western alliance credibility is on the line…and China’s leadership is watching what we do very intently.
• We can’t go from a disastrous exit of Afghanistan to a subsequent failure in Ukraine. That tells every adversary to just wait us out…we’ll tire and quit.
• Worse, while the U.S. and her allies should be applauded for the support we’ve given to Ukraine—as it’s been fundamental to their continued survival—the Biden Administration has been effectively deterred by Putin, slow rolling aid and imposing restrictions on strikes into Russia.
• The general perspective in Ukraine is that the U.S. is more concerned with the potential fallout of Russia losing than with Ukraine winning. Summarizing this perspective was a comment from a senior political official who told me, “For a nation so strong, why are you working to be so weak?” That sums up the perspectives of the current U.S. leadership approach by not just Ukraine, but most U.S. friends and partners overseas…
• That said, like you said, this can’t be a forever war. That’s why the Biden strategy of “as long as it takes,” is so bankrupt. Ukraine’s population can’t absorb the losses, and we need to get back to rebuilding our own military capabilities and capacity.
• We need to define what an adequate victory looks like and then unleash Ukraine to strike centers of gravity behind Russian lines that will impose costs on Russia such that it will be in their interest to settle.
• Those concerned about the risk of nuclear war should actually be more worried about the risks involved with capitulating to Putin’s nuclear saber rattling. That gives incentive to every adversary nation to pursue nuclear weapons. Biden’s actions have stimulated nuclear proliferation, not tempered it. We need to take actions that enhance credible deterrence, not undermine it.
• Our policy with respect to Ukraine must focus on providing them the means to reverse Russian aggression, not just hold the trenches they are stalemated in… because of a lack of capability to achieve air Superiority…that’s another topic.

Heather Penney: General Deptula, if you had time to brief Donald Trump on the state of the Air Force and key decisions that should be prioritized this coming year, what would you say?

General Deptula:

• Well, Heather, I’d make time if given the opportunity… and here’s what I’d say… Mr. President-elect, every single national security option you need to have as President is underpinned by airpower and spacepower. Unfortunately, due to decades of underfunding and neglect in recapitalization of its geriatric combat aircraft, the Air Force is now the oldest, the smallest, and the least ready it’s ever been in its entire history—that would be since 1947. …and I’d repeat that, because while all of you have heard me say that, the President elect has not…and the AF leadership needs to be telling that as well, or they will never get the resources they desperately need.
• That’s not hyperbole, that’s fact…your number one military priority should be to rebuild your Air Force because it’s the Department of Defense’s indispensable force—no joint force operation can be conducted without some element of the Department of the AF.
• America’s airpower arsenal is in a death spiral. Modernization was delayed for too long in too many mission areas. The bill is now due: two legs of the triad, long range strike, air superiority, air and missile defense, mobility, training, munitions, and next gen unmanned systems.
• We can no longer continue shrinking the Air Force as a means of paying for modernization. There is no more to shrink… the AF is already on track to get lose 1000 planes over the next five years without replacement. Retiring more aircraft than we buy is a terminal vector.
• Additionally, we cannot choose between conventional and nuclear modernization. We need both. And the funding needs to be provided to do both—or you will find yourself in a precarious situation without the force to back up the deals you want to make with potential adversaries.
• Second, you need to command the Department of Defense leadership to use cost-per-effect analysis and instill roles and missions discipline among all the armed services to ensure we are getting the most out of every defense dollar. Why are we funding Army long range missiles that cost as much as an F-35 per shot and an accompanying Army ISR aircraft when the Air Force and Space Force already have more effective, efficient options?
• Third, you might ponder that our sister services also possess aircraft. Why can’t you use those? You can, but those aircraft make up the ‘air arms’ of the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps. Those air arms are dedicated to facilitating the core functions of their parent service—operations on the ground, at sea, and in the littorals.
• There is however, only ONE AIR FORCE—it’s not just another air arm, but rather a service specifically dedicated and structured to exploit the advantages of operating in the third dimension to deliver the effects you desire.
• It’s this unique and specific focus that keeps our Nation on the leading edge of the challenges we face…or in other words, what makes aerospace power one of America’s asymmetric advantages.
• Fourth, we need to get back to buying. The Air Force needs the resources to recover from the death spiral it’s in to produce modernized equipment: NGAD’s penetrating counter-air aircraft, the F-35, B-21, CCA, EA-37B, KC-46, NGAS, T-7, E-7, and yes…more pilots too. Combatant commanders are calling for more airpower capacity today and tomorrow, not less.
• Fifth, people matter. We’re running our AF people into the ground because nearly all the missions we now perform are high demand, low density. We also need to give them a reason to serve. People need a vision and a compelling reason to push it up. We’re on dangerous ground here.
• Finally, you asked me about airpower, but I’m a champion of space too. Since you’ve been gone, the Space Force you created has NOT been allocated the resources necessary to execute the missions assigned to it. Plus, the main reason you stood up the Space Force was to consolidate all DOD space missions into the Space Force—that has not happened, and you need to force that or the intelligence community will continue to slow-roll your intent to unify all military and space intelligence operations. And you need to discipline the Army, Navy and Marines to hand over their own mini space components to the Space Force… so far, they are refusing to integrate. This flies in the face of your vision of consolidating space activities to maximize effectiveness and efficiency.

B-21 Raider
Photo: US Air Force

Heather Penney: Gen Deptula, what about the airpower side of the ledger? NGAD, ensuring we are buying more aircraft than we are retiring, maximizing B-21 production, the triad…the list is long. What would you prioritize? Secretary Kendall made a stark admission earlier this week—we simply don’t have enough money for NGAD, CCA, and NGAS.

General Deptula:

• The recapitalization bill is way overdue and needs to be paid. My good friend and former Chief of Staff of the Air Force, Mark Welsh said, and I quote, “Airpower; without it we lose.” We are running out of airpower folks. The AF needs to clearly articulate what life looks like if we do not reverse the decline of our Air Force. America’s national security is at risk without Air Force modernization. The other services will not succeed without modern, sufficient Air Force airpower.
• Three decades of under-investment has consequences. No past AF leader sought to defer modernization. These circumstances were forced upon the AF by other priorities—specifically the trillions spent on counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. We either get real about modernization, or we face the very real risk of losing a future war.
• Buying aircraft in production or close to production is essential—we spent the past twenty years funding these programs. We can’t afford to pivot off them in hopes of a theoretical set of new options.
• We also need to look at training and readiness accounts. The current figures are terrifyingly bad. Crews are not getting the hours they require in the air. The risks are profound.
• The industrial base is very fragile. We either get real about building production capacity, or we risk the continued spiral downward, and move from becoming a global force to one with much less capability. The Russia—Ukraine war should have been a huge warning siren. But, we’ve done little in response to replenish our own warfighting weapons capacity. As a warfighter, I didn’t want “just in time delivery,” I wanted mountains of munitions to apply at a rate and over the period necessary to win. I had that capacity in 1991 during Desert Storm, but 10 years later in OEF it went away, and has only atrophied more since. The next time, our forces will need munitions, aircraft, and pilots that we simply lack the capacity to produce. DOD needs to correct these deficiencies now, and perhaps President-elect Trump will act to make that goal a reality.

You can listen to the full podcast that features other air and space power experts here.

About the speakers:

Lt General David A. Deptula, USAF (Ret.), serves as the Dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. Gen Deptula is the world’s foremost expert on military aerospace issues.  He was the principal attack planner for the Operation Desert Storm air campaign; commander of no-fly-zone operations over Iraq in the late 1990s; director of the air campaign over Afghanistan in 2001; twice a joint task force commander; and was the air commander for the 2005 South Asia tsunami relief operations. He retired from the Air Force in 2010 after more than 34 years of distinguished service. Gen Deptula has BA and ME degrees from the University of Virginia and a MS degree from National War College.

Ms. Heather “Lucky” Penney is a Senior Resident Fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, where she conducts extensive research on cutting-edge defense policy with a focus on the leveraging the critical advantage that only aerospace power affords.  Penney worked over a decade in the defense industry focusing on defense budgets, supporting program execution, and capturing campaign management. She served in the Washington, DC Air National Guard flying F-16s and G-100s; she has also served in the Air Force Reserve in the National Military Command Center.

The views expressed by guest authors are their own, and do not necessarily reflect my views or those of the Center on Law, Ethics and National Security, or Duke University.  See also here.

Remember what we like to say on Lawfire^®: gather the facts, examine the law, evaluate the arguments – and then decide for yourself!