by Michelle K. Schultze

Abstract 

Kyrgyzstan, where remittances made up 30% of GDP before the Russo-Ukraine war, is central to understanding Russia–Central Asia labor migration. Wartime trends, however, are obscured by informality and limited Russian data. This study introduces a novel “nowcasting” method using XGBoost and Yandex Wordstat, a Russian search query database largely overlooked in English-language research. Results show a push effect linked to war intensity, alongside a labor substitution effect: Kyrgyz migrants increasingly fill roles vacated by Russian conscripts. This shift primarily affects blue-collar and informal travelers, with remittance flows responding after a two-month lag.

Professor Charles M. Becker, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: F24; J6; R23

Keywords: Immigrant Workers; Remittances; Regional Labor Markets

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Email for access to Inflow, outflow, and Netflow sets.

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