by Timothy Lloyd O’Brien

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of family policies in addressing declining fertility rates across OECD countries between 1990 and 2019. Over the past six decades, fertility rates in these nations have dropped substantially, with most falling below replacement level. This study evaluates the influence of three core policy instruments: cash benefits, parental leave entitlements, and early childcare provisions. Using a fixed-effects panel model, this research accounts for country-specific characteristics and includes controls for various economic and social conditions. Leveraging recent data from persistently low fertility periods, the analysis incorporates previously underutilized variables such as contraception accessibility and disaggregates results by both regional and demographic contexts. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in policy effectiveness. Cash transfers and early childcare expenditures exhibit consistent positive associations with fertility, particularly in Europe and the Americas. Paid maternal leave shows a positive effect primarily in low-fertility countries and European settings, while its impact is less robust elsewhere. Conversely, economic conditions, especially unemployment, emerge as strong and consistently negative predictors of fertility across all regions and fertility levels. These results underscore the importance of early, context-sensitive, and multidimensional policy interventions in shaping fertility outcomes.

Peter Arcidiacono, Faculty Advisor
Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: J13, J16, J17

Keywords: Fertility; Family Policy: Parenthood

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