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Tag Archives: Mortality
The Relationship between and Geographic Distribution of Breast Cancer Statistics: Diagnosis, Survival, and Mortality in Selected Areas in the United States, 1973-2004
By Timothy Rooney
Using breast cancer registry data from the United States and regression models controlling for race, marital status, and county-level variation, this research analyzes the connections between these statistics and the geographic variation of each of them. In doing so, it determines that stage of diagnosis has a significant impact on survival likelihood and the likelihood of death due to breast cancer. It also determines that survival reduces mortality likelihood. Additionally, it determines that stage of diagnosis, survival, and mortality all vary geographically, postulating that the reason for this variation is due to lifestyle variation and uneven medical talent distribution.
Advisor: Charles Becker, Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: I1, I10, I19 | Tagged: Cancer, Diagnosis, Health, Mortality, Survival
Do Teenagers Exhibit Rational Expectations Regarding Mortality, Fertility and Education Outcomes?
By Nikolay Braykov
Microeconomic models often use the Rational Expectation Hypothesis (REH) instead of including expectation data. This paper examines the validity of the REH using subjective probability questions about mortality, fertility and education outcomes from panel data. First, I ask whether expectations are accurate and homogenous at the individual level; I find substantial forecast biases that depend on the nature of the outcome and decrease with ability and elimination of focal responses. I then propose a Bayesian learning framework to explain biases and find evidence of partial learning, suggesting probabilities become more accurate over time. Finally, I find subjective probabilities have predictive power over and above objective estimates, suggesting they contain private information about anticipated events.
Thesis not available at this time
Advisor: Frank Sloan | JEL Codes: D9
