Home » Posts tagged 'market efficiency'

Tag Archives: market efficiency

Determinants of NFL Spread Pricing: Incorporation of Google Search Data Over the Course of the Gambling Week

By Shiv S. Gidumal and Roland D. Muench

We investigate the factors that Las Vegas incorporates into opening spreads for NFL matchups. We include a novel proxy measure for gambler sentiment constructed with Google search data. We then investigate whether changes in this proxy are reflected in the closing spreads for NFL matchups and find that they are incorporated. We also reveal bettors’ preferences for highly visible teams and teams performing well recently. Lastly, we show that the factors that matter in the actual outcome of a game are home field advantage, average points scored for and against, and, most interestingly, our proxy measure for gambler sentiment.

View Thesis

View Data

Advisor: Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: G14, G17

Google Search Volume Index: Predicting Returns, Volatility and Trading Volume of Tech Stocks

By Rui Xu

This paper investigates the efficacy of using Google Search Volume Index (SVI), a publicly available tool Google provides via Google Trends, to predict stock movements within the tech sector. Relative changes in weekly search volume index are recorded from April 2004 to March 2015 and correlated with weekly returns, realized volatility and trading volume of 10 actively traded tech stocks. Correlations are drawn for three different time periods, each representing a different stage of the financial business cycle, to find out how Search Volume Index correlates with stock market movements in economic recessions and booms. Google SVI is found to be significantly and positively correlated with trading volume and weekly closing price across 2004 to 2015, and positively correlated with realized volatility from 2009-2015. There exists a positive correlation between weekly stock returns and SVI for half of the stocks sampled across all 3 periods. The regression model was a better fit before and during the recession, suggesting the possibility of stronger “herding” behavior during those periods than in recent years.

view thesis

Advisor: Edward Tower | JEL Codes: G1, G14, G17 | Tagged: Analysis, Information, market efficiency, Stock Returns

Multiples Valuation and Abnormal Returns

By Joon Sang Yoon

I investigate whether three commonly used valuation multiples—the Price-to-Earnings Ratio, the EV-to-EBITDA multiple, and the EV-to-Sales multiple—can be used to identify mispriced securities. I find that multiples are successful in identifying mispricing in both the equal and value weighted portfolios relative to the One-Factor CAPM. I further find, after controlling for size and value effects, that the bulk of the abnormal returns are concentrated in smaller firms. Moreover, the Sales multiple seems to outperform the other two multiples in the equal weighted design. In the value weighted design, however, the P/E ratio outperforms the others.

view thesis

Advisor: Per Olsson | JEL Codes: G12, G14, M4 | Tagged: Equity Valuation, Long-run Abnormal Returns, Market Efficiency, Multiples Valuation

Questions?

Undergraduate Program Assistant
Jennifer Becker
dus_asst@econ.duke.edu

Director of the Honors Program
Michelle P. Connolly
michelle.connolly@duke.edu