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Tag Archives: Fertility
The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility in OECD Countries
by Timothy Lloyd O’Brien
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of family policies in addressing declining fertility rates across OECD countries between 1990 and 2019. Over the past six decades, fertility rates in these nations have dropped substantially, with most falling below replacement level. This study evaluates the influence of three core policy instruments: cash benefits, parental leave entitlements, and early childcare provisions. Using a fixed-effects panel model, this research accounts for country-specific characteristics and includes controls for various economic and social conditions. Leveraging recent data from persistently low fertility periods, the analysis incorporates previously underutilized variables such as contraception accessibility and disaggregates results by both regional and demographic contexts. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in policy effectiveness. Cash transfers and early childcare expenditures exhibit consistent positive associations with fertility, particularly in Europe and the Americas. Paid maternal leave shows a positive effect primarily in low-fertility countries and European settings, while its impact is less robust elsewhere. Conversely, economic conditions, especially unemployment, emerge as strong and consistently negative predictors of fertility across all regions and fertility levels. These results underscore the importance of early, context-sensitive, and multidimensional policy interventions in shaping fertility outcomes.
Peter Arcidiacono, Faculty Advisor
Michelle Connolly, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: J13, J16, J17
Keywords: Fertility; Family Policy: Parenthood
The Russian Maternity Capital Policy: Two Models
by Jackson Cooksey
Abstract
Between 1991 and 2007 the Russian Federation experienced a decrease in population and a drop in total fertility rate below population replacement levels. In 2007 the government, citing the importance of forestalling this decline, implemented the Russian Maternity Capital Policy, a one-time subsidy to those families who have a second or higher order birth. Study aims to analyze the impact of this policy on the total fertility rate of the Russian Federation to better understand post-Soviet trends in fertility and gain insight into how effective similar policies will be in the future if implemented elsewhere. This study uses two models to assess the policy. First, a novel difference-indifference- in-difference model is developed to add to existing literature on the policy. Second, a synthetic control model is developed generate a counterfactual to measure causal effects of the policy on total fertility rate in Russia. Difference-in-difference-indifference estimations show the policy having a 0% to 3.5% positive effect on fertility, and the synthetic control model results show that the policy had a large impact on fertility in the mid-2010s but this change has declined since 2019.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: J, J1, J11, J12, J13
Do Teenagers Exhibit Rational Expectations Regarding Mortality, Fertility and Education Outcomes?
By Nikolay Braykov
Microeconomic models often use the Rational Expectation Hypothesis (REH) instead of including expectation data. This paper examines the validity of the REH using subjective probability questions about mortality, fertility and education outcomes from panel data. First, I ask whether expectations are accurate and homogenous at the individual level; I find substantial forecast biases that depend on the nature of the outcome and decrease with ability and elimination of focal responses. I then propose a Bayesian learning framework to explain biases and find evidence of partial learning, suggesting probabilities become more accurate over time. Finally, I find subjective probabilities have predictive power over and above objective estimates, suggesting they contain private information about anticipated events.
Thesis not available at this time
Advisor: Frank Sloan | JEL Codes: D9
