by Jackson Cooksey

Abstract
Between 1991 and 2007 the Russian Federation experienced a decrease in population and a drop in total fertility rate below population replacement levels. In 2007 the government, citing the importance of forestalling this decline, implemented the Russian Maternity Capital Policy, a one-time subsidy to those families who have a second or higher order birth. Study aims to analyze the impact of this policy on the total fertility rate of the Russian Federation to better understand post-Soviet trends in fertility and gain insight into how effective similar policies will be in the future if implemented elsewhere. This study uses two models to assess the policy. First, a novel difference-indifference- in-difference model is developed to add to existing literature on the policy. Second, a synthetic control model is developed generate a counterfactual to measure causal effects of the policy on total fertility rate in Russia. Difference-in-difference-indifference estimations show the policy having a 0% to 3.5% positive effect on fertility, and the synthetic control model results show that the policy had a large impact on fertility in the mid-2010s but this change has declined since 2019.

Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor

JEL Codes: J, J1, J11, J12, J13

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