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The Russian Maternity Capital Policy: Two Models
by Jackson Cooksey
Abstract
Between 1991 and 2007 the Russian Federation experienced a decrease in population and a drop in total fertility rate below population replacement levels. In 2007 the government, citing the importance of forestalling this decline, implemented the Russian Maternity Capital Policy, a one-time subsidy to those families who have a second or higher order birth. Study aims to analyze the impact of this policy on the total fertility rate of the Russian Federation to better understand post-Soviet trends in fertility and gain insight into how effective similar policies will be in the future if implemented elsewhere. This study uses two models to assess the policy. First, a novel difference-indifference- in-difference model is developed to add to existing literature on the policy. Second, a synthetic control model is developed generate a counterfactual to measure causal effects of the policy on total fertility rate in Russia. Difference-in-difference-indifference estimations show the policy having a 0% to 3.5% positive effect on fertility, and the synthetic control model results show that the policy had a large impact on fertility in the mid-2010s but this change has declined since 2019.
Professor Charles Becker, Faculty Advisor
JEL Codes: J, J1, J11, J12, J13
The Effects of Parental Division of Employment on Child Outcomes During Adulthood
By Meredith Parenti
This paper offers an empirical analysis of the effects of division of employment between parent figures on future outcomes of children. Using propensity score matching, this study extends upon previous research to offer an understanding of the joint role played by maternal employment and that of a present or non-present husband. Data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Young Adults and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 are used to create and examine a comprehensive set of respondents’ backgrounds and labor outcomes. Relative to children from two parent homes with only working fathers, children from two parent homes with part-time working mothers and non-working fathers appear to have less positive labor outcomes. Conversely, children with full-time working mothers without spouses in the home have more positive labor outcomes. These findings demonstrate the mediation of each parent figure on the role of the other in determining outcomes and suggest maternal work is beneficial to children, or plays no significant role, unless a mother has to support not only her children, but also her husband through her employment.
Advisors: V. Joseph Hotz and Michelle Connolly | JEL Codes: J01, J12, J22
24K Magic: Evidence on Maternal Asset Ownership and Children’s Long Term Outcomes in Indonesia
By Maya Durvasula
Household resource allocation in response to economic shocks is of central importance for policy makers, especially given widely documented evidence of gender biases. In this paper, I exploit a
plausibly exogenous shock to maternal asset holdings in Indonesia to examine gender biases in resource allocation in the wake of the 1998 East Asian Financial Crisis. Using insights from
anthropology, I separate assets in the hands of women from those controlled by men and interpret findings in the context of a household decision-making framework that allows preferences of parents to differ. Taking household-specific heterogeneity into account with fixed effects, I find significant evidence of efforts to shield male children from the effects of the crisis in both contemporaneous educational attainment and longer-term labor market outcomes, a remarkable trend given minimal evidence of a pro-son bias in Indonesia prior to the crisis. Finally, inferring preferences from maternal resource allocation, I find suggestive evidence of an old age security motive in women’s investment decisions.
Advisor: Duncan Thomas | JEL Codes: D13, I0, J13, J16
