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Testing the Relationship between Oil Equities and Oil Futures with High-Frequency Data: A Look at Returns, Jumps, and Volatility
By Brian Jansen
This paper looks at simultaneous returns, jumps, and volatilities of oil futures, oil equities, and other equities in the S&P 100 using high-frequency data. Through this method, a market factor is found to affect the overall level of returns across the equities and the likelihood that two given equities to jump simultaneously. A second factor is found to affect the returns and jumps that uniquely describes the variation in the oil equity and futures data. Volatility in oil futures and equities is not found to have a common factor due to the differences in types and motivations of traders.
Advisor: George Tauchen
Is Public Expenditure on Primary Education Effective? Evidence from Districts Across India
By Tara Iyer
Against the background of international commitment to the Millennium Development Goal (MDGs) for the universalization of primary education, this paper investigates the effectiveness of public spending on primary education outcomes in 115 districts across three states in India – Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Controlling for factors including per capita income, student-teacher ratio, and ratio of government to private primary schools, we find that primary educational spending has a negligible impact on enrollment rates, primary school transition rates, and performance of students on exams. Instead, districts with greater proportions of private primary schools are found to have consistently better outcomes. Higher per capita income is also correlated with some improved performance measures. Reducing the student-teacher ratio has no effect, a phenomenon possibly explained by rampant teacher absenteeism and lack of teacher motivation. Evidence from this study indicates that policymakers should seek alternatives to improve the quality of primary education, and determine how to achieve a more efficient and equitable allocation of educational funds.
Advisor: Alessandro Tarozzi
The Miscommunications and Misunderstandings of Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen
By Samuel Iglesias
If there is any takeaway from 1971’s The Entropy Law and the Economic Process, it’s this: beneath every intersection of the supply and demand curve, there’s a slow, but steady, process of environmental degradation. Try as you will to recycle waste materials, the book argues—this process cannot be reversed. A formulation of economics backed with this insight was the life vision of Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, whose work on environmental economics has recently received a new round of academic scrutiny. But one might ask, why wasn’t Georgescu well received the first time around, during his time? This paper explores that topic.
Advisor: E. Roy Weintraub
Cell Phones and Cattle: The Impact of Mobile Telephony on Agricultural Productivity in Developing Nations
By Daniel Houghton
This paper examines the impact of mobile telephony on productivity in developing nations. Previous studies have suggested that mobile phones have real impacts on economic outcomes in these countries. Using micro-data from Swaziland, Cambodia, and Honduras, this study looks to identify the effects of mobile phone ownership on household productive outcomes in a two-stage regression. The results provide significant evidence that mobile phone ownership does indeed improve productivity at the household level.
Advisor: Charles Becker
The Significance of Higher Education on the Racial Gap in Marriage Rates
By Kristin Hamb
In this paper, I examine the effect higher education has on the age of marriage and how this differs between black and white women. Becker’s theory of positive assortative mating in marriage markets lead me to predict higher levels of education would decrease the probability of being married by 30 and 40 for black women more than white women. My probit regressions showed that, despite an initial delay in marriage, increased education had a positive effect on the probability of marriage for black women confirming that lesser educated black women are more at risk of falling into the racial marriage gap.
Advisor: Marjorie McElroy
Oil, Population Growth, and the Resource Curse
By Tim Gu
I find indications that an increase in a country’s oil endowment results in an increase in its population growth rate, an increase in its fertility and birth rates, and a decrease in its mortality rate. To explain these results, I conjecture that an increase in oil endowment results in reduced female labor force participation, which increases the population growth rate. Additionally, I find no significant, negative relationship between a country’s per capita GDP growth rate and its oil endowment, when variations in the population growth rate are controlled. This result and others affect the interpretation of the “resource curse” concept.
Advisor: Michael Alexeev, Robert F. Conrad
The Effect of Exchange Rates on the Performance of Professional Sports Franchises in International Competition
By Nick Elliott
Exchange rates are a very important factor for businesses that operate internationally, especially when franchises are in international competition for the same talent pool. As an international league, this paper seeks to analyze how teams’ performance in the NHL is affected vis-à-vis a fluctuating value of currency. This analysis is extended to Champions’ League soccer, where over 50 countries with different currencies compete in the same international context. Results indicate that currency value has a significant effect on success in international competition.
Advisor: Peter Arcidiacono
Reconciling the Environmental Kuznets Curve with the Free Rider Problem
By Scott Bradford Covert
The current paper studies the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which claims a parabolic relation exists between per capita GDP and environmental degradation. This would suggest a developing nation could expect to increase pollution significantly during the beginnings of industrialization and then, as the country began switching to a service-oriented economy, could expect pollution levels to begin to eventually drop with increasing per capita income. There has been much debate over said issue and the main goal of this paper is to study how the environmental free rider problem may play a role in plaguing the validity of the EKC model. Environmental free riding would allow nations to externalize some of the costs of their pollution such that it may never become economical to lower pollution levels despite rising income. My research focuses on an empirical study of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions and ultimately supports the hypothesis that the effects of the free rider problem can be expected to spuriously affect the validity of the EKC model for certain pollutants.
Advisor: Christopher Timmins
Gas Prices and Automobile Advertising Expenditures in U.S. Markets
By Chenyu Janet Chang
I examine how automobile manufacturers change their advertising strategies when gasoline prices rise. In particular, I use a robust OLS regression to estimate how gasoline prices affect advertising expenditures on vehicles with different levels of MPG. I use detailed data from the ACCRA Cost of Living Index, Adspender, and Polk’s NVPP. My results show that automakers shift their advertising expenditures toward vehicles with higher MPG in response to higher gas prices. Fuel-efficient vehicles in large and luxury segments are more likely to be advertised in response to rising gas prices than those in the midsize segment.
Advisor: Christopher Timmins
