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Measuring the Likelihood of Small Business Loan Default: Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) and the use of Credit-Scoring to Minimize Default Risk1
By Andrea Coravos Community development financial institutions (CDFIs) provide financial services to underserved markets and populations. Using small business loan portfolio data from a national CDFI, this paper identifies the specific borrower, lender, and loan characteristics and changes in economic conditions that increase the likelihood of default. These results lay the foundation for an in-house […]
Entering the Campus Courtship Culture: Factors that Influence College Students‘ Relationship Types
By Sott Casale Drawing on data from a 2007 random sample of Duke University seniors (369 males and 381 females), this paper analyzes individual factors that influence whether men and women were more likely to engage in the hook-up culture or an exclusive romantic relationship (ERR) as compared to doing nothing. There is substantial research […]
Do Political Connections Help Firms Gain Access to Bank Credit in Vietnam?
By David Brunnell One of the major contributing factors to Vietnam’s macroeconomic instability has been the massive growth of credit inflows and its often inefficient allocations. Vietnam is in a state of economic transition from state-planned to open market based. The private sector has grown very rapidly but private firms’ demand for credit is still […]
Do Teenagers Exhibit Rational Expectations Regarding Mortality, Fertility and Education Outcomes?
By Nikolay Braykov Microeconomic models often use the Rational Expectation Hypothesis (REH) instead of including expectation data. This paper examines the validity of the REH using subjective probability questions about mortality, fertility and education outcomes from panel data. First, I ask whether expectations are accurate and homogenous at the individual level; I find substantial forecast […]
Collusion with Three Bidders at First-Price Auctions
By Andrew Born Lopomo, Marx, & Sun (2009) show that, given a speci fied environment, pro table collusion is not possible for a two-person bidding ring operating at a fi rst-price sealed-bid auction. This research investigates the rigor of their result by expanding the theoretical framework to the case of a three-bidder cartel. The output generated from the […]
The Dynamics of Health Care Demand During an Illness Episode
By David Benson Previous studies assume consumers make medical care choices over large (e.g. yearly) time steps. However, most health expenses occur in the weeks immediately following a shock to health. It is unknown whether demand during an illness episode diers from normal long-run demand. How do consumers make the sequential, dynamic choices to consume […]
Rebalancing, Conditional Value at Risk, and t-Copula in Asset Allocation
By Irving Wang Traditional asset allocation methods for modeling the trade between risk and return do not fully reflect empirical distributions. Thus, recent research has moved away from assumptions of normality to account for risk by looking at fat tails and asymmetric distributions. Other studies have also considered multiple period frameworks to include asset rebalancing. […]
Extreme Value Theory with High-Frequency Financial Data
By Abhinay Sawant Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is one of the most commonly applied models in financial risk management for estimating the Value at Risk of a portfolio. However, the EVT model is practical for estimation only when data is independent and identically distributed, which usually does not characterize financial returns data. This paper aims […]
Determinants of Migration: A Case Study of Nang Rong, Thailand
By Monitra Mohinchai The increasing flows of internal migrants resulted from urbanization in developing countries is of great interest to policy makers. This study examines the individual-level and household-level social surveys the Nang Rong Project in 1994-1995 and 2000-2001. Individual characteristics such as gender, age, and years of schooling, and household characteristic such as family […]
The Closed-End Fund Puzzle: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of U.S. Closed-End Fund Discounts
by David Lefty Abstract This paper examines the effect of systematic beta risk, expense ratios, and fund size on the cross-sectional variation of closed-end fund discounts. Using a methodology similar to that of Gemmill and Thomas (2002) and Flynn (2004) on a sample of 50 U.S. closed-end funds, the data indicate that expense ratios have […]
