Category Archives: JEL Codes

by Akshat Jain Abstract This thesis studies how AI-related employment growth is associated with local labor-market outcomes across U.S. commuting zones from 2010 to 2023. Since local AI adoption is not directly observed, I proxy for it using growth in AI-builder employment. Using a Bartik-style instrument based on historical industry composition and national industry-level AI-builder […]

Vertical Specialization, Trade Diversion, and the 2018-2019 US-China Trade War

by Mariam Hasina Gulamhusein Abstract This thesis examines the impacts of the 2018–2019 US-China trade war, focusing on trade diversion and changes in vertical specialization (VS). Using US imports data and OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) data, this thesis estimates country-level tariff elasticities and changes in VS ratios in response to the Section 301 […]

Does Geopolitical Tension Affect Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment?

by Aamer Husain Abstract This paper examines whether geopolitical tensions affect bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). Using global news event data, I construct a novel dyadic measure of geopolitical distance and estimate a panel model with country-year and dyad fixed effects across 39,700 dyad-year observations from 2016 to 2023. Geopolitical distance reduces FDI positions by […]

Artificial Intelligence, Friend or Foe? Measuring the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Women’s Employment Outcomes in India

by Emily Elizabeth Fong Abstract This paper examines how Artificial Intelligence (AI) exposure impacts women’s employment outcomes in India between 2017 and 2024. I exploit variation in AI exposure across local labor markets, using a Bartik shift-share empirical strategy and Indian labor force data. I find no statistically significant effect of AI exposure on employment […]

Permitless Carry Laws and the Illegal Gun Market: Evidence from Stolen Gun Values

By Mary Ella Evans Abstract This paper examines the effect of permitless carry laws on handgun theft in the United States. Using a balanced state-year panel from 2000 to 2023, with state and year fixed effects, region-year fixed effects, and state-specific cubic time trends, I find that the adoption of permitless carry laws is associated […]

On the Political Bias of LLMs

by Joshua Daichi Dutton Abstract This paper examines the political alignment of ChatGPT outputs relative to user inputs using 443,843 real-world conversations from WildChat-1M. Text is scored via a bigram method calibrated on 118th Congress speech. OLS and instrumental variables estimates show that model outputs systematically reflect the partisan direction of user prompts while attenuating […]

Evaluating the Effects of Unconditional Cash Transfers on Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Flint’s Rx Kids Program

by Antonio Drakes, Abstract This paper examines the first-year effects of Rx Kids, a citywide unconditional cash transfer program for pregnant women and infants in Flint, Michigan, on infant health outcomes. Using city-level data for the largest Michigan cities from 2019 to 2024, I compare differencein- differences, synthetic control, and synthetic difference-in-differences estimators. The results […]

How the System Matches: Preference Alignment and Waiting Costs in Brazilian Adoption

by Yuri de Melo Costa Abstract I study how Brazil’s Sistema Nacional de Adoção e Acolhimento (SNA) (National Adoption System) matches Children and Adolescents (CAs) to Prospective Adoptive Parents (PAPs). Despite a ratio of roughly seven certified PAPs per available CA, thousands of children remain in institutional care. Using administrative microdata from the SNA linking […]

Plea Bargaining Beyond Common Law: Evidence from China

by Jince Chen, Abstract This paper provides a causal evaluation of China’s plea-leniency reform, a prosecutor-led negotiated criminal procedure piloted in 18 cities from 2016 to 2018 before its nationwide adoption. In common law systems, plea bargaining is found to generate sentence discounts and efficiency gains; in civil law jurisdictions, where bargaining is more constrained […]

Framing the Frontlines: Media Sentiment, Geography, and Global Market Reactions to the Russo-Ukrainian War

by Christopher Nash Boykin Abstract This paper examines whether media sentiment about the Russo–Ukrainian war predicts crosscountry equity returns and whether the effect varies with structural exposure to the conflict. Using GDELT data, I construct an audience-weighted, source-demeaned tone measure aligned to countryspecific market close times. Two-way fixed effects estimates across 17 NATO countries show […]